Early leans & analysis Week 1
Early leans & analysis

NFL 2021

Week 1

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criteria we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday.

We’re intent on providing our readers with the best possible selections and doing so on Sunday instead of Friday just makes more sense. We made that change two years ago and ended up going 81-57 (+64 units) in 2018, 65-59 in 2019 (+16 units) and 55-62 in last year's unusual pandemic season. Again, we’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST

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L.A. Chargers +109 over WASHINGTON

1:00 PM EST. Ryan Fitzpatrick has a new jersey to hang in his closet, which is pretty damn full at this point after stops with the Rams, Bengals, Bills, Titans, Texans, Jets, Buccaneers and Dolphins. Now you can add the burgundy and gold of the Football Team. Prior to this season, it had been a long time since "FitzMagic'' was pegged to be anything more than a safety net for a young up-and-coming quarterback. He's played mentor to Deshaun Watson, Sam Darnold, Jameis Winston and Tua Tagovailoa. At one time or another, those teams all called on him to win a game or two. Fitzpatrick will not have to look over his shoulder in D.C., as only Kyle Allen and Taylor Heinicke sit behind him on the depth chart. This is the Magic Man's team and it will live and die with the Harvard alumni.

Expectations are high in Washington after the Football Team won the NFC East and had a quality showing against the eventual Super Bowl Champions in the Wild Card game with Heinicke at the helm. Washington actually took an 18-16 lead into the fourth quarter against Tampa Bay, but its highly ranked defense could not stop the Bucs from closing out that game. That unit is still expected to be one of the best in the game here in 2021, but it's hard to put much stock into that week to week, as this is an offense-first league where the officials are always looking to get their mugs on TV. It is very hard to play tight and physical on the defensive end and not be punished for it unless you play with Tom Brady.

The Chargers have their man in Justin Herbert and all it took was a team doctor jabbing Tyrod Taylor with a needle full of pain killers, puncturing his lung. That thrust Herbert into the spotlight and he stepped up to the plate, going toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, taking their AFC West rivals to overtime. That was just one of many tough luck losses for the Super Chargers in 2020, which has their stock trading lower than it should be. L.A. has a variety of weapons for Herbert at its disposal and its defense is no slouch either. It's a big IF for the Changers, but if they can stay even remotely healthy, they have a chance to contend with the mighty Chiefs in the AFC West. In a few weeks, this might look like one of the worst lines of the year, as there is tremendous value to be had on the Chargers here and we’re all over it.

In recapping, we have all the hype on the Football’s team defense. To that we say, “big deal”. Dallas scored 29 on Tampa’s hyped and championship defense Thursday night and blew chances to score 21 more. You also have the market playing the West Coast team traveling to the East angle, another useless angle that the market uses to rationalize a wager on a specific team, especially in Week 1. What we know for sure is we have Justin Hebert, they have Ryan Fitzpatrick and we don’t have to spot anything. Chargers a big time steal here. Recommendation: L.A. Chargers +109

San Francisco -7½ -110 over DETROIT

1:00 PM EST. Some of the excitement has been let out of the start of the 49ers’ season, as third overall pick Trey Lance appears as if he'll miss Week 1 after suffering a finger injury in the preseason. Lance is undoubtedly the future franchise quarterback in San Francisco, so there is no reason to rush him back, although the 49ers said they plan to use both him and Jimmy Garoppolo throughout the year. It appears for the moment that the noose around Jimmy G's neck is loose, but his time is coming.

This offseason, the Lions threw the baby out with the bathwater when they fired former head coach Matt Patricia and traded former franchise quarterback Matt Stafford to the L.A. Rams. In return, the Lions picked a boatload of picks, including two first-rounders and former first overall pick, Jared Goff. On paper that's a pretty good haul for a team that wasn't really going anywhere with the 33-year-old Stafford. The Lions are rebuilding (again) and this time they've tabbed Dan Campbell to get the job done. Campbell was a 10-year vet in the NFL with the Giants, Cowboys, Lions and Saints. He began his coaching career as an intern with the Dolphins in 2010 and worked his way up to Tight End Coach and eventually interim head coach in 2015. He spent the last four years with the Saints as an assistant head coach to Sean Payton. There is always optimism with a new regime, but after decades of bad football, is this going to be the one to right the ship?

When oddsmakers post a number like 7½, they are often encouraging the market to bite on that half point. One may think they are getting an "edge" on the underdog with such a number, but we see it the other way. When you see the "hook" on a "key" number like 3, 7, 10, or 14, that is a strong indication that the favorite is the play. This game appears to be no different. Recommendation: San Francisco +7½ -110

CINCINNATI +3 -103 over Minnesota

1:00 PM EST. Joe Burrow was drafted first overall in 2019 with the goal of turning the Bengals fortunes around after leading LSU to the College Football Playoff and winning the Heisman Trophy in his final year. His 202 passer rating was the best ever for a college QB at the time and upon graduation, his 2019 season was called the best ever by a college pivot. The Bengals would add high-rated wide receiver Tee Higgins in round two and the foundation for future success was set. Or it was until Week 11 when Burrow was hit while throwing in against Washington and blew out both his ACL and MCL in his left knee while also damaging his PCL and meniscus. In short, dude got blown up, ending his Rookie of the Year campaign, an award that would go to Justin Herbert.

So where does that leave the Bengals in 2021? To a fickle market, Burrows was last seen a long time ago on his back and being carried off the field. All eyes were on him to start last year but there are no eyes on him this year. That provides us with a great opportunity to get a great QB at a reduced rate because he’s out of the spotlight. Prior to his injury, Burrow had begun to grow into his own. He posted 406 passing yards in a Week 7 game against Cleveland while adding three majors and running in another. That was a first for a rookie pivot. During his first eight games, Burrow completed more passes (221) than any other player in NFL history over that time span and now he’s being treated with no respect. Hell, in some fantasy drafts, he was the 15th to 20th QB selected, which is a strong reflection of the market.

Joining Higgins at wide receiver will be veteran Tyler Boyd and top WR prospect Ja' Marr Chase, who the Bengals selected fifth overall in April. The hard-running Joe Mixon is in the backfield and Cincinnati did its best to improve its offensive line by signing Riley Reiff at right tackle and drafting Jackson Carman in round two. Carmon comes in after three years as a starter at Clemson and he has the size and strength to be a quality guard in this league right away. If he's as good as advertised, a move to tackle down the road is not out of the question.

What is there to write about the Kirk Cousins experiment in Minnesota? That the Vikings’ best season over the past five years or so came when Case Keenum was the quarterback? That certainly sums it up well. The Vikes have blown over $100-million in guaranteed money and have fuck all to show for it. How confident Minnesota is in Cousins as their long-term option at quarterback may have been confirmed when the Vikings took Kellen Mond in the third round of April's draft. We won't get into Mond too much here, as we have little doubt he'll be the starter soon enough. He was great at Texas A&M and finished with over 9000 career SEC passing yards and 1500 running yards. That puts him in elite territory with Dak Prescott and Tim Tebow. As to which of those to pivots dude profiles as; it's the former. Mond is QB2 in Week 1. The heat is now on Cousins and how he responds to the pressure will be interesting but if we are to take his history into account, dude cannot be trusted under any pressure. Having the job all to himself didn't really work out very well. How long the leash is for Cousins to trip himself up is unknown, but he's making big money that is fully guaranteed into at least next season. If it goes south early for Cousins, the Vikings could be a prime fade target until they pull the trigger and make the switch.

Had Burrows finished the year and won the Rookie of The Year while helping the Bengals to finish strong, this number would look different. As it stands now, it’s an inflated price because the market is ignoring or forgetting just how great Burrows is. He’s not only great, he’s focused, determined and comes in with a big chip on his shoulder too. Wrong side is favored here. Recommendation: CINCINNATI +3 -103

ATLANTA -3½ -101 over Philadelphia

1:00 PM EST. The Eagles put all their eggs in the Jalen Hurts basket, but it remains to be seen if that was the prudent play. On the surface, it looks easy to move on from the often-injured Carson Wentz in light of Hurts' emergence. The Eagles’ offseason was a weird one that started in Week 17 last year when then-head coach Doug Pederson decided to tank Philadelphia's game against Washington for a better draft pick, handing the NFC East crown to the Football Team. Well, Pederson got his pick (10th overall), but he also received his walking papers. Quite the fall from grace for the only Super Bowl-winning coach in Eagles’ history. That championship was less than three years ago; building a dynasty just isn't what it used to be, eh?

Nick Sirianni took over for Pederson, Wentz was traded to the Colts and Hurts was handed the keys to the Eagle kingdom. With that, expectations are no doubt higher than they would have been under the former coach/quarterback combo. Hurts has been pegged as a popular breakout star in fantasy circles. The Eagles then drafted former Alabama receiver and favorite target of Hurts, Devonta Smith with that number 10 pick. That pairing has the Eagles’ offense looking to take the next step, but we'd pump the breaks on that.

The Falcons have become an easy fade target in this market. That's what happens when you build your reputation on blowing big leads in winnable games. It happened most notably in Super Bowl LI after a 19-point fourth-quarter by New England ripped Matt Ryan's only chance at glory. Worse than that though, is that it has become a trend that has continued year after year. Remember the Dallas game last season or the Falcons' home loss to Tampa in December where they blew leads of 17-0 and 27-7 respectively? You get the picture. The Falcons are a hard team to trust, we get that but they have washed the slate clean and we’re going to suggest that it is the Eagles and not the Falcons that are not to be trusted. Recommendation: ATLANTA -3½ -101

Pittsburgh +6½ over BUFFALO -109

1:00 PM EST. You may have noticed that we wrote the Steelers up to go under their season win total and we trust that wager will cash come season's end. Moreover, we cannot let it dictate how we do business week-to-week.

As for Pittsburgh here in Week 1, there is much to like about its ability to cover this number. From time to time, you'll see us write that "the price dictates the play," and that is very much true here. We are not high on the Steelers; that much was made clear in our preseason analysis; however, as we say, we don't have biases and therefore cannot ignore what the oddsmakers are telling us.

For the Bills to cash this ticket on a converted touchdown at home is going to be an appealing play in Week 1. With Josh Allen at the helm, the Bills have a ton of hype around them. Buffalo is coming off an AFC Championship Game appearance. To suggest anything but a Super Bowl run to the Bills Mafia might get you slammed through a flaming table.

We have no idea how the Steelers will perform but what we do know is that Buffalo has turned from the hunter to the hunted and with that comes the weight of expectations. It’s an entirely different role that they are not accustomed to. And what about Josh Allen?

In his first two years in the league, Josh Allen’s play was so erratic and unpredictable that it was dubbed “The Josh Allen Experience.” Accuracy problems and a striking lack of fundamentals plagued 2018’s seventh overall pick. But Allen showed flashes of promise as his sophomore season came to a close, thus putting the Bills high on everyone’s radar. He picked up last season where he left off, turning in not just a good season in 2020, but an unexpectedly elite one. His opponent-adjusted Total QBR of 81.7 was third in the NFL and ranks as the 12th highest in the league since 2006. 

Most explanations for Allen’s improvement note his winning attitude and raw potential — potential that was ultimately unlocked through patience and good coaching. It’s a nice, feel-good story about long odds and hard work. But despite Allen being rewarded with a contract that made him the second-highest paid player at his position, at least one NFL decision maker is still unsure if he’s the real deal: “He perplexes me,” an anonymous personnel director told The Athletic’s Mike Sando, “because in my career I have not seen someone go from as inaccurate as he was in college to making this kind of transition.”

In 2019, Allen’s sophomore season, 23 percent of his incompletions were charted as off-target by ESPN’s Stats & Information Group, worst in the league. Based on history, we would have expected his below-average performance to continue. However, Allen’s off-target rate fell dramatically last year to 15.4 percent, a hair better than league average. That 7.6 percentage point improvement was good for second best in the NFL in 2020, behind only MVP Aaron Rodgers. 

Still, as impressive as Allen’s rapid ascent was, it should probably give us pause. Of the 31 players since 2006 to record at least a 5-point improvement in off-target rate, nearly three quarters saw it rise the following season. Off-target throws that end in incompletions aren’t the end of the story, though. “Off-frame” passes — passes that were thrown high, low, ahead or behind a target but were still caught — represent another way to quantify Allen’s accuracy. By this measure, 2020 was a banner year for him. Allen threw for 10 touchdowns on 58 plays categorized as “off the frame” by the ESPN Stats & Information Group. That compares to just two touchdowns on 46 such plays in 2019. Allen’s 10 TDs in 2020 are tied for second most in a season since 2017 (the first year for which we have data). Moreover, Allen’s eight-touchdown increase on off-frame throws accounts for 47 percent of his total year-over-year touchdown improvement.

Allen’s success on these throws appears to be heavily driven by luck instead of skill. Among Allen’s peers who threw six or more off-frame TDs in a season, 85 percent saw their TD totals fall the next year. Allen already beat the odds simply by making it to the NFL. Allen led the Bills to two playoff wins, inserted himself into the MVP discussion, and followed that up by getting paid like a 1990s rock star. The hype surrounding him and the Bills now provides us with this great opportunity to take back inflated points. You see, the evidence suggesting Allen is due for regression is powerful. Recommendation: Pittsburgh +6½ -109

INDIANAPOLIS +3 -109 over Seattle

1:00 PM EST. There is a new man under center in Indianapolis for the third straight season, as the Colts continue to feel the effects of former franchise quarterback Andrew Luck's sudden retirement prior to the 2019 season. Jacoby Brissett filled for most of the first season post Luck, but in 2020, the Colts looked to veteran Philip Rivers, who led them to an 11-5 record and a Wild Card spot. Rivers would retire after Indy's 27-24 first-round loss in Buffalo, leaving the Colts once again looking outside the organization for its new starting pivot.

Enter Carson Wentz, who was run out of Philadelphia after the emergence of Jalen Hurts. Wentz's time in Philly was full of ups and downs, with the latter far outweighing the former. Well, if dude thought a change of scenery would turn around his luck, he was sorely mistaken, blue horseshoe be damned. Wentz did not see the field in the preseason due to a foot injury and then a COVID infection. The Colts activated Wentz from the COVID list last Thursday and while there may be some concern in the market that he has yet to take the field with his new teammates, we're not that worried. Even if Wentz were healthy, he would not have seen much, if any time with nothing on the line. Dude has an injury history a mile long and the Colts invested significant draft stock in him by way of a 2021 third-round pick and a 2022 conditional second-rounder. As for the uncertainty about Wentz's status for Week 1, if he can walk, he's going to play. Even if he gets knocked around, second-year man Jacob Eason is waiting in the wings. He had an impressive preseason and the benefit of being the understudy to Rivers last year. Long term, Eason may be the best man for the job, but we'll save his story for another day.

The Seahawks won the NFC West with a 12-4 record, but most of the damage (7-1) they did came in the comfy confines of Lumen Field, the loudest stadium in the NFL. Sure, there were few to no fans in 2020, but that Seattle posted just a 5-3 mark under those ideal road conditions is worth noting, as Lucas Oil Stadium will be packed to the rafters. Although the Seahawks had great regular season success, they were once again sent packing early in the playoffs after losing a 30-20 decision at home to the Rams in the Wild Card round.

One can't help but wonder if the Russell Wilson-led Seahawks have peaked, at least under Pete Carroll. There was much offseason chatter about a potential Wilson trade to places like Chicago and Las Vegas. In this league, when it comes to unhappy high-profile quarterbacks, where there is smoke, there is often fire. See Rodgers and Brady. Will those distractions bleed into the regular season? We won't know for sure until Seattle takes the field, but it's not out of the question. Those are not the seeds of doubt we want to be planted when spotting road points. The Colts are the prudent play here. Recommendation: INDIANAPOLIS +3 -109

N.Y. Jets +4 -103 over CAROLINA

1:00 PM EST. We'll never know if the schedule makers got cute by pitting former Jets quarterback and current Panthers starter Sam Darnold against his old team or if the computer just spit this game out by chance, but from our perch, this Week 1 matchup does no favors for Darnold in his new digs.

While three years might feel like 30 these days, it really wasn't that long ago that Darnold was pegged to be the Jets franchise QB after being selected third overall in the 2018 draft. Saddled with head coach Adam Gase for his final two seasons in New York, Darnold was never able to fulfill his high draft potential. In fact, it is Gase that has taken most of if not all of the blame for Darnold's inability to become even a reliable starter in this league. Darnold had some success in the preseason and all reports out of Panthers’ camp suggest he looks like the stud that was slinging it at USC. We’ll now attempt to take advantage of those positive preseason reports. P.S. They mean fuck all.

The Jets moved on from Gase this offseason and hired Robert Saleh, former defensive coordinator of the 49ers. Saleh comes with a very solid reputation for not being an idiot. Regardless, a moldy ham sandwich would have been an improvement on the sidelines over Gase and his dozen Twitter troll accounts. Joining Saleh is second overall pick Zach Wilson, the latest savior for "Gang Green”. Saleh thinks so much of the former BYU pivot, he already made him one of his offensive captains. The Jets brass has done their best to surround Wilson with the tools necessary to get the job done, using the number 14 pick on offensive lineman Alijah Vera-Tucker, a second-rounder on wide receiver Elijah Moore and stealing running back Michael Carter in the fourth round.

While they play in the largest market in the league, one cannot help but notice the Jets still have a lot of stink on them from years past. Meanwhile, the Panthers have some buzz with the return of star runner Christian McCaffery and the possibility of Darnold finally reaching his potential. However, many of these Jets defenders practiced with Darnold for years and they know him inside and out. They know his tells, his tendencies and how he reacts to just about every situation a defense could throw at him. To that, we say advantage Jets. Throw in a pile of inflated points and you've got the perfect setting to cash a ticket. Recommendation: N.Y. Jets +4 -103

Arizona +2½ +106 over TENNESSEE

1:00 PM EST. The Titans have high expectations here in 2021 after back-to-back trips to the playoffs under the Mike Vrabel/Ryan Tannehill regime, including a trip to the AFC Championship game in 2019. Tennessee won the AFC South last season, but was upended at home by the Ravens 20-13 in the Wild Card game.

The Titans made a "splash" in the offseason by acquiring whatever is left of Julio Jones from the Falcons. Whether or not Jones can play more than a decoy (or stay on the field for that matter) for A.J. Brown on the other side remains to be seen. Regardless, the Titans are still going to be a run-first time behind Derrick Henry. Tennessee's summer didn't come without some bumps in the road, as Tannehill tested positive for COVID. Dude is lucky he "didn't have it too bad" because it likely would have been worse had he not been partially vaccinated. Tannehill was against the jab, but did not want to be isolated from the rest of the team. "I wouldn't have gotten the vaccine without the protocols they're enforcing on us." While Tannehill was "forced" into doing the right thing, it wasn’t in time to stop him from spreading the virus and admitted, "(COVID) kind of went through my house. My wife got it after I did. She had it a little worse than I did." The Tannehill’s also have two young children at home. Personal choices have consequences, kids. Point is, Anti-Vaxxers have no credibility with any reasonable people. The players in that Tennessee locker room want a leader they can trust and Tannehill may have lost the respect of his teammates. That matters.

The Cardinals are coming off a disappointing 8-8 campaign in a year where many expected Kyler Murray and head coach Kliff Kingsbury to take the team to the next level. In a way, they did, improving on the Cards' five wins in 2019. That win total could have been greater had Arizona not imploded in the second half of the season, losing seven of its last nine games. Arizona added some notable veterans on offense in AJ Green and James Conner. While those players may be past their prime, neither will be counted on as the number one option. A little veteran leadership in the huddle can't hurt. In the loaded NFC West, it appears the Cardinals are flying under the radar. That makes them a strong buy-low candidate, as we're always looking to invest in teams before their stock goes up. Recommendation: Arizona +2½ +106

HOUSTON +3 +106 over Jacksonville

1:00 PM EST. From top to bottom, the Texans are a mess. Most notably, the offseason of star quarterback Deshaun Watson took the cake. You can Google what kind of shit dude has gotten himself into, but needless to say, Watson’s status will be spotty at best. Houston General Manager Nick Caserio said this week, "I wouldn't anticipate him playing Sunday and we'll recalibrate here as we go." Texans coach David Culley named Tyrod Taylor as his starting pivot on Monday. The Texans no doubt want to move on from Watson and so keeping him healthy is priority one. On the trade front, Houston has been active this week, as the Texans traded cornerback Bradley Roby to the Saints. Rumors that Brandin Cooks and runner David Johnson could be on the move also continue to swirl. In short, this is not a team that the market generally will attach their wagon to and oddsmakers know it. Houston’s stock is incredibly low.

The Jaguars got their man in Trevor Lawrence, arguably the most high-profile quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck. Lawrence likely would have gone first overall had he come out of Clemson after his Junior year, but he stuck around for one more, leading the Tigers once again to the College Football Playoff. However, a second National Championship was not in the cards after a Sugar Bowl loss to Ohio State. Lawrence was not the only high-profile Tiger drafted, as runner Travis Etienne was taken late in the first round. Unfortunately, Etienne suffered a season-ending injury before his rookie campaign could get started.

Despite that setback, there is optimism in Jacksonville for the first time in quite awhile. They brought on Urban Meyers and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell. Ex-Ravens defensive line coach Joe Cullen takes over the defense. Armed with a bevy of draft picks, plus Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne and some high profile coaches, Jacksonville’s stock is much higher than Houston’s. So allow us to step in. The Jags are in a total rebuild and are installing all new schemes. This is a team that went 1-15 last year and have lost their last 15 games. Urban Meyer is a college coach that is destined to fail like 99% of college coaches before him. The Jags have lost 10 or more games in nine of the past 10 years. This is a Jaguars’ squad that in no way can be trusted to spot road points, nor have they earned the right to spot road points to any team in the NFL and that includes the Texans. Recommendation: HOUSTON +3 +106

Cleveland +5½ -107 over KANSAS CITY

4:25 PM EST. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs need little introduction here, nor do they need us to slobber all over them. The market is very familiar with Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and the rest of the weapons in this offensive juggernaut and because of that, you are often going to pay a premium to back them. Early in the season, when we know very little about these squads, the Chiefs are like a warm blanket or your favorite movie. They are comfort food for a market looking for an easy winner. However, would it be unreasonable to suggest that after a second straight Super Bowl appearance, the Chiefs might be nursing a hangover?

The Browns took a step forward last season by not only making the playoffs but winning a Wild Card game over the Steelers. Some may discount that win because Mason Rudolph was under center for Pittsburgh, but a playoff win is a playoff win and there is much to like about the Browns in 2021.

Cleveland returns all five starting offensive linemen from a unit that was tops in pass blocking and second in run blocking in 2020. We cannot overstate how important the hogs up front are. This Browns' group is a big reason why we are so bullish on Baker Mayfield and company. They feature a two-headed monster in the backfield in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt and Mayfield has a variety of quality passing options. Not only do the Browns have a great chance to cover this number, but they have everything needed to win this game outright. Recommendation: Cleveland +5½ -107

N.Y. GIANTS +3 -110 over Denver

4:25 PM EST. Really? Are we to believe that the Teddy Bridgewater-led Broncos are ready to be spotting points on the road against anybody? Even the potential Saquon Barkley-less Giants?

The Broncos spun the quarterback wheel this offseason and it landed on Bridgewater. Yay? Forgive us if we cannot get too excited about another mediocre offense led by "Wobbly Balls." Protecting Teddy is a line that struggled mightily in 2020. Rookie center Lloyd Cushenberry allowed 15 pressures in his first four games last season. The assumption is that the young Broncs line will take a step forward here, but you know what they say about assumptions.

The Giants' stock is in the toilet and their infirmary is already filling up. We rarely discuss injuries, as we believe that this is a "next man up" league. However, we would be remiss if we didn't discuss them here because it's all the market is talking about. In addition to Barkley, newly acquired star receiver Kenny Golladay, first-round pick Kadarius Toney, as well as tight ends Evan Engram and Kyle Rudolf are on the injury report. That potentially leaves quarterback Daniel Jones with a bunch of riff-raff lined up alongside him come Sunday morning. Do we care? We do not. We'd also like to add that this line should be solid locker room fodder for the G-Men. To a man, if the Giants are not pissed off and disrespected by this number, they need to find another occupation. Recommendation: N.Y. GIANTS +3 -110

NEW ORLEANS +3 +104 Green Bay

4:25 PM EST. The Packers were the leaders in the clubhouse with the most disruptive offseason in the league, but thanks to Hurricane Ida, the Saints are now in possession of that most dubious offseason accolade. Although unlike the Packers, whose troubles with quarterback Aaron Rodgers were totally self-inflicted, New Orleans was once again the victim of Mother Nature.

The Saints have been displaced for a couple of weeks now, practicing in Dallas with the plan to play this Week 1 showdown in Jacksonville. Prior to Ida, the Saints' biggest offseason headline was the retirement of Drew Brees. With Brees out of the picture, Jameis Winston, the former first overall pick of the Buccaneers, will get a second shot at starting quarterback life. Winston put up big numbers in Tampa and a year of watching Brees could not have hurt. There is an expectation that the Saints will take a step back here in 2021, but we're not so sure. Last season, New Orleans had a third-string tight end at the pivot position for much of the year and did not miss a beat without the injured Brees. To expect big time regression here might be naive.

How many Hall of Fame quarterbacks does one organization have to try and run prematurely out of town before it becomes a pattern of behavior? We'll not get into the gritty details of the Aaron Rodgers/Packers standoff, as it was covered extensively all summer and was even the main topic of a made-for-TV golf special where he and Bryson DeChambeau took on Tom Brady and Phil Mickelson head-to-head, with Brady trying to sell Rodgers on the benefits of greener pastures. Rodgers' discontent seemed to boil over in a potential draft-day deal reported by Adam Schefter that would send Rodgers back home to the Bay Area to his boyhood favorite 49ers, but the Packers front office botched that too. Instead of ripping off the Band-Aid and turning the page on the disgruntled Rodgers, the Packers chose to allow themselves to be embarrassed by backing out of the deal and riding out whatever plans #12 has cooked up for his own future.

The last time the Saints were homeless during the 2005 season, it did not go well. Those flashbacks and the recent coverage of that season alongside the potential impact of Ida may have this market bearish on the Saints. In fact, it appears the market has taken a stand here and sees the Saints as an easy target for one of the top contenders in the NFC. While not quite a Super Bowl hangover, another NFC Championship game loss for Rodgers and company looms large. The stars were aligned for the Packers in 2020, but they could not seal the deal at home when it mattered most. Blame the defense for getting caught flat-footed on a Brady bomb before the half, blame Rodgers’ indecision for not running in a potential touchdown late, or blame head coach Matt LaFleur for opting for a field goal when only a touchdown would do any good. All are worthy of your criticism. If the market wants to crown the Packers' asses here in Week 1, they may, but we're not ready to go there yet.

This one is all about market perception. Drew Brees was a fixture in New Orleans for years and he was that one guy that could be counted on to give you a great chance of cashing a ticket. Take that away from the Saints and the market doesn’t like it, thus setting up a buy low opportunity. Add the ever reliable Aaron Rodgers on the other side along with the seemingly short price and in Week 1, the market will almost always lean to a guy they know they can trust. Our strategy is partly predicated on exploiting market deficiencies and to us, this one sticks out as such. Jameis Winston has paid his dues, he’s talented as can be, he has the trust of his teammates and coaches and he and the Saints should probably be favored here. Recommendation: NEW ORLEANS +3 +104

Miami +3 +105 over NEW ENGLAND

4:25 PM EST. Do you think Bill Belichick misses Tom Brady yet? Ya think that bitter old dude watched Tommy Boy hoist his sixth Lombardi Trophy? You don't have to answer that; it was a rhetorical question. If by some chance, BB did tune in on Super Bowl Sunday, we have no doubt he gave the game no more than a stern glance on his way to the bean dip.

That said, the winds of change blew through Foxborough once again this summer, as the Patriots cut ties with former number one pick Cam Newton. Newton's fall from grace after a Super Bowl appearance with the Panthers way back in 2016 has been a steep decline. Dude's now been cut in each of the last two off seasons. Cam became expendable after the Patriots drafted former Alabama quarterback Mac Jones. It's not really a surprise that BB would rather mold his quarterback from scratch as opposed to trying to fix an unvaccinated former star with a big ego.

Uncharacteristically, the Patriots had a horrible year because they had a horrible QB. At least that’s the market perception. Mac Jones is supposed to be a massive upgrade. BB did not lose his credibility because of one bad year without a QB. Let’s give the Patriots a mulligan for last year and the market will instantly gravitate to New England at home in Week 1 at a small price. Look back over the past 20 years and try to find when the Patriots were priced so low to open the year. This is still the Patriots. The stink of one-bad year does not change market perceptions drastically for a model franchise, especially when the bad apple has been taken out of the equation. New England -3 at home to open the year? Really? It looks like a gift but we’re going to suggest being very cautious.

Year two of “Tua Time” begins without the safety net of Ryan Fitzpatrick, and so there is much pressure on the man who preceded Jones as the pivot for the Crimson Tide to take it to the next level. Tagovailoa’s stock has dropped this offseason after trade rumors involving the embattled Deshaun Watson were the subject of much chatter. When you might get traded for a dude that is potentially facing criminal charges and a lengthy suspension, the market takes notice. Any hype Tua had last season has been snuffed out by the high-profile quarterback class of 2021, and many in Miami are apparently ready to move on. Why?

Buying low is one of our many criteria and with that in mind, Tagovailoa is a commodity that may be worth an investment. It might be easy to be down on Tua, but it's only in recent years that rookie pivots have been expected to not only start, but perform at a high level out of the gate. Is that really fair? Hell, look at the former first overall picks that have been cast aside recently. Newton, Winston and Goff. All had considerable success and still got the boot. This is a fickle league with a short memory. We are willing to trust that Tua has the skill and weapons around him necessary to continue to grow. Miami coach and former Belichick understudy Brian Flores agrees and likes what he sees. "Good fundamentals, good technique, good communication, good decisions." With that in mind, we’re going to trust the oddsmakers in this one, that being not offering up enough points to a Miami team that has had a fraction of the success that New England has had over the past two decades. Take the points. Recommendation: Miami +3 +105

Chicago +7½ -102 over L.A. RAMS

8:20 PM EST. Remember when Sean McVay was the super genius offensive guru of the new Millenium? Those were good times. Many branches fell off his coaching tree, most notably Matt LaFleur in Green Bay. Jared Goff was at the helm, putting up big numbers, Todd Gurley was ripping up defenses and it looked as if the Rams were in a two-team inter-conference space race with the Chiefs for NFL offensive supremacy. Well, half that equation held up its end of the deal.

So, what do we make of the Rams sending Jared Goff to football purgatory in Detroit for a 33-year-old Matt Stafford? Not fucking much, to be honest. Forgive us if we can't get excited by this move, but it reeks of desperation and regret for signing Goff to the largest contract ever (at the time) when he put his name on the dotted line. Teams in this league do not just trade multiple first-round picks all Willy Nilly. Not unless they are totally fucked up.

The Rams front office's flip-flopping on bad contracts is not limited to last season as Gurley, Jalen Ramsey and others were cut loose long before their deals were to expire. The Rams were in the Super Bowl less than three years ago and were a 10-6 playoff team last season. Teams that have that kind of perennial success don't usually kick their young franchise quarterbacks to the curb. Don’t ignore the signs.

Like the Rams, the Bears moved on from former number two pick Mitch Trubisky after three lackluster seasons. The Bears took Justin Fields at number 10 in this year's draft, but unlike others in his draft class, such as Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson, Fields will apparently be relegated to the sidelines for the foreseeable future. Bears' coach Matt Nagy has chosen to start veteran Andy Dalton, so the "Red Rifle" rides again.

The market will not embrace the decision to start Dalton but it is the one that may suit us best here in Week 1, at least from a wagering perspective. There is nothing sexy about Dalton; meanwhile, the Rams are getting a ton of attention, and their stock is soaring with the addition of Stafford. There is no doubt an overreaction in the market to the Rams' new quarterback, while the Bears' choice is being undersold. That combination presents an inflated number in a high-profile, prime time game. That’s a situation we are almost always on the lookout for. Recommendation:Chicago +7½ -102

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