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Posted at 12:15 PM EST. 

KANSAS CITY -3 over Buffalo

6:40 PM EST. Certainly, we are going to wait until just before game time to pull the trigger for a number of reasons. First, K.C. is -3 - extra vig so we are not going to lay added juice no matter what. If it stays at -3 -120, we’ll sell a half point and take it up to -3½. There is also the possibility that it moves to -3 and traditional juice. Either way, we have nothing to lose by waiting, unless it goes to -4, which seems almost entirely unreasonable.

The Bills squeaked past the Colts in the Wildcard Round after leading by 14 to start the fourth quarter. Last week, they took down the Ravens 17-3 with a tremendous defensive effort that was aided by a 101-yard interception return for a score and the Ravens losing Lamar Jackson for the final quarter.

From where we sit, the Bills have not looked pretty in two playoff games. They barely hung on to beat the Colts and last week, had it not been for that pick-6, a 14-point swing, we might be discussing the Ravens here but the market is having none of that. Instead, we’re reading everywhere that the Chiefs are a team in trouble.

It’s championship Sunday and other than the Super Bowl, the media will influence the market today to a massive degree. No matter where you go to get your NFL news, you are going to get it pounded into your head that Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are struggling miserably. You are going to hear about Mahomes’ concussion and turf toe. You are going to hear about all the X’s and O’s that labels the Chiefs as a team that has been barely keeping its head above water for weeks. You are going to hear how K.C. has one cover in the past nine weeks and how their defense isn’t likely going to have any answers for Buffalo’s offense. You’ll also read about how dominant Buffalo’s defense was last week against Baltimore. One would be hard-pressed to find any report to influence the market to get behind the Chiefs. It’s Buffalo, Buffalo and more Buffalo.

All of that is X’s and O’s. We pointed out last week how the Ravens played the easiest schedule in the league and how Lamar Jackson is a RB and not a QB. Dude was easily stopped by the Titans last year and easily stopped by Buffalo this year. Beating Baltimore and scoring 17 lousy points is not a ringing endorsement.

A confluence of factors are influencing the price here to the point where we are getting the Chiefs are a true discount. The media, Patrick Mahomes injury and his concussion, the Chiefs not covering in eight weeks and the Bills knocking off the Ravens while only allowing 3 points are only some of the things that have impacted the price here to make Kansas City a smaller favorite than they should be. In determining where the value is, we need not look any further. K.C. hasn’t been this small a home favorite in a very long time and it prompts us to move in.

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