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Posted at 11:10 AM EST & updated at 3:40 PM

L.A. Rams +7 over GREEN BAY

4:35 PM EST. So, what are we going to write about this game that you haven’t already read or heard? That the Rams QB situation is precarious? That Green Bay is healthy, they’re at home and they’re on a six-game winning streak? That the temperatures are going to be below or near freezing, thus giving an edge to Aaron Rodgers and the cold weather Pack? That Green Bay has the league’s highest scoring offense? We think you get the point.

The media influence in NFL playoff games is so prevalent that it is difficult to measure. If you’re betting Green Bay because the Rams have Jared Goff going at less than 100%, you might win but that’s not a good reason to bet the Packers. That’s actually the reason to bet the Rams because it has caused an inflated price. One is paying extra to go against a less than 100% healthy Goff and to get behind the league’s MVP.

There are other subplots in this second-round playoff game, like the battle of coaching wits between Sean McVay and former Rams assistant Matt LaFleur, how the Rams will handle the non-quite-frozen tundra and of course the one that is making the most noise, that being offense vs defense, which is where our focus is here.

The Packers’ offense led the NFL in scoring (31.8 points a game) while the Rams’ defense was the league’s hardest team to score against (18.5). In the 19 seasons since the NFL went to its current conference and division alignment, four postseason games have pitted the team that scored the most points in the regular season against the team that allowed the fewest. The defensive leader won three of the four: Seattle beating Denver 43-8 and New England beating Atlanta 34-28 in the Super Bowls following the 2013 and 2016 seasons, and Seattle beating Green Bay 28-22 in the NFC championship game after the 2014 season. The lone win for the offense was Carolina’s 31-24 victory over Seattle in the 2015 divisional round. In the same 19-year stretch, teams with the top defense, points-wise, won five Super Bowls and went to two others; teams with the top offense, points-wise, won one Super Bowl and went to five others.

Goff returns as starter 19 days after surgery to stabilize his fractured and dislocated throwing thumb, and a week after he came off the bench to replace injured John Wolford and play solidly at Seattle. Wolford’s neck injury will keep him out this week. Blake Bortles backs up Goff.

We have stated numerous times this year that there are no great defenses anymore only inept offenses because the rules don’t allow defenses to thrive. Furthermore, the Locker Room employees can’t help but throw a flag on every other play to allow the offenses to be constantly moving the chains. That said, last weekend in the Super Wild Card round, nary a flag was seen in six games combined and that’s another indication of Roger Goddell telling the refs to not throw anything unless it is blatant. If that continues this weekend, and the Rams are allowed to play defense, they have a great chance to come in under the number and even win outright but regardless of all that, we have to stick with playing value. In that regard, it is the Rams that hold it here because the betting public has been fed all week about Aaron Rodgers MVP season and what a difficult position the Rams are in due to its QB situation, thus causing the inflated price. What until 4:00 PM EST, because chances are great we’re going to get another half point to take us up to that key number of +7.

The bet is the Rams but we’ll update it before game time to make it official, as it would be foolish not to wait for that inevitable half point to come our way.

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