Pinnacle -2½ -106 BET365 -2½ -110 SportsInteraction -2½ -115 5DIMES -2½ -110 Bookmaker -2½ -110

Posted at 11:10 AM EST. 

BUFFALO -2½ -106 over Baltimore

8:15 PM EST. Lamar Jackson dispelled the notion that he could not win a playoff game when he looked very much like his 2019 version, before they figured out how to limit his rushing. It's arguable that the Ravens benefited from the Titans overworking Derrick Henry the previous week to get him his 2,000 rushing yards but who knows. The win was a return to last year since Jackson was almost the entirety of the offense and certainly the one with the difference-making plays. Marquise Brown has stepped up from his rookie season, but no other element of the offense is doing much.

The Bills featured the No. 2 scoring offense in the NFL this year but they were held to only 27 points by the Colts last week. Buffalo did not cover last week but Baltimore did, thus creating this zig-zag phenomenon on both sides. Most of the market was on the Bills last week and frankly, the game never felt comfortable for Bills’ supporters, which causes a reluctance to get behind them this week against a better team (by market perception) than the one they faced last week. The same goes for Jackson and the Ravens. The Titans appeared to have Baltimore’s number, which was reflected in the betting, when the market heavily backed the Titans. That makes it difficult to go against Baltimore again. Thus, what we have here is a heavy recency bias in place. Nobody remembers that Buffalo put up 56 against the Fish in a meaningless game two weeks ago, 38 against New England three weeks ago and 48 against Denver four weeks ago. The Bills now go from being a -6½-point choice over the Colts to a small -2½ or -3-point choice over the Ravens in the span of one week based largely on last week’s results. Truth be told, the Bills are a steal against Baltimore’s one-man show. Seattle was also a one-man show and Lamar Jackson is a fraction of what Russell Wilson is.

Last week we pointed out the significance of Strength of Schedule (SOS) and we’re not coming off that this week, The theory is actually quite simple; since 2002 (when the NFL expanded to its current format of 32 teams; eight divisions with four teams each), Wild Card teams with a higher Strength of Schedule went a remarkable 47-25 straight up and 48-22-2 against the spread (68.5% winners) regardless of point spread and location. Even more amazing is that teams with a SOS advantage of 10 or better went 29-7 SU, 28-6-2 ATS (82% winners). Today, as you can see in the chart below, both the Bills and the Rams have a major edge in Strength of Schedule over Baltimore and Green Bay respectively.

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