Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:30 AM EST.
KANSAS CITY -10½ -110 over Atlanta
1:00 PM EST. The phrase “it used to be better” can apply to many things but in this instance, it is the Chiefs that are the subject. Specifically, Patrick Mahomes led-Chiefs of yesteryear, who would cash more often than a broken slot machine. Those glory days appear to be gone, as Mahomes and company have failed to see the pay window in six straight weeks. SIX! We are of course being facetious, as this is no time to write off Kansas City as a value bet in Week 16. We’ve backed the Chiefs at times during their ticket-cashing slide, and would do it again in a second, as they should have covered easily in games against the Buccaneers and Dolphins. We backed them again last week in New Orleans and ended up with a sister kisser, with the closing line of Kansas City -3 being the game’s final outcome. Again, the Chiefs were up double digits early and late in the game and gave up a relatively meaningless score to the detriment of their backers. Now, K.C. has the chance to clinch the AFC’s top seed and a first round bye, the only one that will be up for grabs in the NFL’s new 14-team playoff system. They take a huge step down in competition and we doubt they’ll be flat with the stakes so high.
The Falcons did Falcon things last Sunday in that they went up big against the visiting Buccaneers (24-7) with about 7:30 to go in the third quarter, before giving it all back and then some in a 31-27 loss. In the marketplace, the Dirty Birds covered the 6-point closing spread from gate to wire. If you backed Atlanta in that game, you really only had to sweat out the last five minutes or so. In the market, the Falcons were winners, but on the field, that had to be another in a line of stinging defeats for this franchise over the years. Their reputation for blowing big leads is well earned to say the least. At a time of year when motivation is often questioned, the Falcons came out guns blazing with the chance to make life very difficult for the division rival Brady’s. Now they have to take a trip to Kansas City to play outdoors in 50 degree weather on a holiday weekend with the Bucs up again next week. If the Dirty Birds bring everything including the kitchen sink to this game, so be it but the more likely scenario is that they are mentally down and mentally beat up too after another very disappointing loss.
We saw a similar scenario a couple of weeks ago when the Jets lost to the Raiders on the game’s final play. Mentally exhausted after another loss, the Jets traveled to Seattle and lost 40-3. Like the Jets in Seattle, the Falcons will travel to face a non-conference foe in this Thomas Edward Patrick Brady Jr. sandwich. There is great potential for this to to be one of the most lopsided scores of the season.
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KANSAS CITY -10½ -110 (Risking 2.20 units - To Win: 2.00)