Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:00 AM EST.
New England +109 over MIAMI
1:00 PM EST. Oh, how the tides have turned in the AFC East. After nearly two decades of dominance, the mighty Patriots are once again mortal. While there has been a debate who deserves the credit for the New England dynasty, Bill Belichick or Tom Brady, there is no denying that like peanut butter and chocolate, they were definitely better together. Sans Brady, BB is 6-7 and coming off an embarrassing 24-3 prime time showing against the Rams in Los Angeles on TNF. Very often, the best bets are found in the over and under reactions to the previous weeks’ prime time games. New England could not move five yards last week. A 24-3 loss may as well have been 44-3 because that’s how bad it felt if you bet the Patriots. Time will tell whether or not the Patriots can score another Hall of Fame quarterback in the sixth round of the 2021 NFL draft but it’s hard to comprehend the fact that the Pats have five passing touchdowns after 13 games. BB has resorted to a running game ala 1972 and the market is not impressed. The Pats stock has hit bottom after last week’s putrid performance against the Rams.
The Dolphins are a great story after over a decade of incompetence, but we’d like to pump the breaks on this team’s bandwagon because this is a major role reversal after being a 7-point pooch to the Chiefs last Sunday. Yes, the Fish covered that game, but if you held a ticket on them, you should thank your lucky stars. After a slow start, K.C. blew the game wide open with four straight touchdowns, taking a 20 point lead into the fourth quarter. The Chiefs were up 33-24 after the Fish had made it a six-point game, but Miami would kick a nothing field goal with 16 seconds to go to make the final score 33-27.
Miami has now cashed in eight of nine weeks. That’s printing money. However, a close look reveals a ton of bounces and some extreme luck. Miami was lucky to cover against the head-scratching Chargers, they scored a lousy 19 points against the Brandon Allen led Bengals and still covered. They beat the Jets not once, but twice and they got absolutely destroyed on the stat sheet against the Rams but won 28-17 in the most misleading score of the decade. The Dolphins have the second best turnover margin in football, which makes them the second luckiest team in football. Do you know who has the biggest turnover margin? If you said the Steelers, you would be right. Point is, just like it’s starting to even out for the Steelers, it will even out against the Dolphins too and BB is one that stresses hanging onto the ball more than anything else.
Aside from this being a prime “buy low, sell high” situation, we also have the fact that the oddsmakers hung a “dog friendly” number on this game. What, they couldn’t open it Miami -3? Think about that for a second.
A GREAT OFFER FOR SPORTSWAGERS READERS:
We’re offering a better and cheaper alternative to cable TV. You will literally save thousands of dollars. If you’re sick of paying a fortune for programming that you don’t even want or need, this is for you. All pro sports -- EVERY GAME, tons of college football and basketball games and tons of regular programming (non-sports). Over 2500 channels all in HD for a mere $20 per month. You have to be nuts not to get it.
New England +109 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.18)