Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:00 AM EST.
San Francisco -3½ -103 over DALLAS
1:00 PM EST. Well, there are some options here and one of them is to play the 49ers -3 plus extra vig. We’re not and will never recommend spotting extra juice in a football game. That leaves three more choices, which are playing Dallas +3 + juice, laying off the game completely or taking the 49ers and selling points. For instance, one could sell a half point and take the 49ers -3½ +100, which is going to be our position here for a number of reasons.
First, Dallas is coming off an easy win over the Bengals and when Dallas wins big, America is a better place. There are hordes of Cowboys fans everywhere and when they win going away, Cowboy fan thinks it’s the turning point and spreads the word only there is no turning point with that idiot Mike McCarthy running the show. No coach is more generous toward other teams than Mike McCarthy. He can’t help himself. He steadfastly refuses to make other teams nervous. He should run a bathhouse and frankly, that’s why we have a strong lean to the 49ers but there’s more.
The Cowboys are one of the most poorly coordinated defenses in the league, and consistently miss basic assignments and exhibit lackluster tackling. San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan cannot and should not lose to a vastly inferior coach that is fucking clueless. It would be reasonable to expect Shanahan to develop a game plan that will exploit every weakness that both Dallas and its coach possess. We also have to trust that the books do not want you betting the favorite with an enticing takeback (points plus juice) against what is perceived as a weak road favorite. Let us remind you that the oddsmakers had so much respect for the 49ers that they made them a favorite over the Bills on December 7th and just a five-point underdog to the Rams the week prior in a game that the 49ers won outright in.
Andy Dalton’s success or futility is largely driven by how much pressure the opposing defense can generate — which is bad news for Dallas here, as he draws a 49ers team that is coordinated by Robert Saleh, a master of crafting unique ways to pressure the quarterback but this wager is not only about San Francisco beating Dallas but it’s also about Kyle Shanahan and his staff making McCarthy and his staff look like the idiots that they are. The 49ers have a great chance to dominate time of possession, make life miserable for Dalton and turn Dallas back into the dumpster fire that they are. This is not a fair price on Dallas, as the 49ers are at least a TD better on their absolute worst day.
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San Francisco -3½ -103 (Risking 2.06 units - To Win: 2.00)