Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:00 AM EST.
Kansas City -3 +106 over NEW ORLEANS
4:25 PM EST. Losing to the Eagles was not in the plans and the loss now has the Saints tied with the Packers for the No. 2 seed. However, Green Bay won yesterday so now it’s the Saints looking up at the Pack. Furthermore, the Saints lost their head-to-head game back in Week 3 with Green Bay so catching the Pack now seems like an exercise in futility. Initially, the hope was that Drew Brees would be back for this matchup but that wasn’t certain until a few days ago. Brees is off the DL and the game will be the featured game in the late window that the entire football world will be watching, us included.
We initially projected for Taysom Hill until to play but then had to rewrite it after Brees was given the go-ahead. Brees was still experiencing pain and a limited range of motion as of last week. We’re not even sure why Brees cannot take another week off as the team virtually has no chance to catch the Packers. That said, the books didn’t give a rat’s ass when they made the Chiefs a field goal favorite when Brees’ status was questionable. The line barely moved after Brees' status changed to “starting”.
We have backed Kansas City two of the last three weeks and failed to cash a ticket. However, we will not be deterred from coming right back on them here. Three weeks ago when the Chiefs were in Tampa, we ripped up our tickets in disgust, as the zebras fueled the Bucs with a few favorable calls in the fourth quarter to turn a 24-10 fourth quarter lead into a 27-24 final. As a 3½-point choice, the Chiefs would win but not cover. Last week in Miami, K.C. took a 30-10 into the fourth quarter as a 7-point choice and led 33-24 with a minute to go. If you followed that game, you know that the Fish kicked a meaningless field goal with 16 seconds left to turn another win into a loss. This week, the Chiefs are a smaller price on the road in New Orleans on a fast track no less, facing a regressing and rusty Drew Brees.
A loss to the Eagles decreased the Saints stock but not by much, as the market is forgiving to one upset loss. Everybody understands that in this emotional and grueling sport, it is impossible to bring one’s A game for 16 consecutive weeks. It matters not that the Saints now move to the role of underdog because the Chiefs are no longer considered to be the automatic cover machine they were the last two seasons.
The Saints have cashed in five of six contests, including all but one with Hill as the starter. Meanwhile, the Chiefs haven’t hit paydirt in five straight so whose stock is lower? K.C.’s last geen up against the number was against the Jets way back in Week 8.
There is such a thing as boredom for vastly superior teams. We saw the Golden State Warriors experience it and we’ve seen other “great teams” experience it too. Although the Chiefs have not covered in five straight, they were destroying the Dolphins, they were toying with the Bucs, they crushed the Ravens back when the Ravens were considered a threat, they beat the Bills in Buffalo by nine, and they also punished the Patriots way back when it counted. Meanwhile, the Saints have beaten up on weak NFC teams all season but a lesson is forthcoming. This is not a boredom game for the Chiefs. The media will hype it up as a “Super Bowl” preview and that means it will ignite the Chiefs “A’ game and get them fired up for the final time before the playoffs. We love that K.C. hasn’t cashed in five weeks because it causes a market shift that we fully expect to take advantage of. This is the bargain favorite of the week so attack with confidence.
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Kansas City -3 +106 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.12)