Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:00 AM EST
DENVER +5½ -108 over Buffalo
4:30 PM EST. There is much to chew on here with the Bills taking this short week road trip to Denver after playing on Sunday Night Football in which they made a statement against the now 11-2 Steelers. Josh Allen’s stock is through the roof after leading the Bills to three straight wins and six victories in their last seven games. It was appropriate that Buffalo wore its all red alternate uni’s on Sunday night, as is now also cashed in five straight games. One could say the Bills are red hot, as they now sit at 10-3 and a full two games up on the Dolphins in the AFC East. It’s nearly impossible to fade the Bills right now, but there is no doubt that their market value is at a season decade high. Buffalo’s win in prime time last week was not just a win, it was a season/team defining win that put them on the map. For two decades, the Bills have been known as a team that cannot be trusted but that label has been lifted as they head into the stretch drive. As situational bettors when it is called for, a closer look shows that this has the potential to be a troublesome “sandwich” spot with a Monday night date with the Patriots on deck for the Bills.
It has been a wild ride for the Broncos in 2020, which will be another lost season for John Elway’s team. How long the leash is on the franchise’s greatest player to turn things around still remains to be seen, but there have been some flashes of greatness from quarterback Drew Lock. Just last week, Lock threw for 280 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions in a 32-27 win on the road in Carolina. The week prior, he also played mistake free football when the Broncos went toe-to-toe with the Chiefs. In Week 11, Lock again did not turn the ball over, as the Broncos beat the surging Dolphins. The only “bad” game the Broncos have played in the last month is the now famous “12th string QB game”. There is nothing that needs to be said about that 31-3 loss to the Saints other than it was an embarrassment to football.
At 5-8, the Broncos season is essentially over, but these teams still get jacked up to host a prime time game and they also get jacked up to play teams that are having a great season. For Denver, this will be the last time they get to play in front of a national audience, while the Bills host MNF against the Pats next week. While the Patriots are not what they once were, we suspect that Buffalo will be extra-jacked up to come into that game with a win expectation against the Pats in their favor for the first time in 20 years. As long as Belichick is in New England, the Bills will consider it a big game. This is an unfavorable situational spot for the Bills but a great one for the underdog.
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DENVER +5½ -108 (Risking 2.16 units - To Win: 2.00)