Today's Free Picks for
Posted Friday, Dec 18 at 3:10 PM EST.
Tennessee -11 -110 over DETROIT
1:00 PM EST. At the time of this writing, most books had this game off the board but we found a line at Bet365 because they don’t give a f**k. It’s not uncommon for 365 to post a game that nobody else has up and we’re going to try to take advantage of perhaps a soft number by posting it today (Friday) as an official wager.
The game is off the board because of Matthew Stafford’s status. Stafford (ribs) was knocked out of the Week 14 game against the Pack in the fourth quarter. The Lions haven't officially ruled Stafford out, and a decision likely won't be made by interim head coach Darrell Bevell until the weekend. Thing is, the Lions are well out of the playoff picture, so there is no sense for Stafford to push it with nothing on the line. Furthermore, Stafford is 33-years-old and is set to become a free agent in 2021. In other words, he’s set to sign somewhere for a boatload of cash and we’re pretty sure that he’s not interested in jeopardizing his health even further. Stafford has been nicked up with an assortment of injuries in recent weeks, so add this one to his ribs to the long list of bumps and bruises for the veteran quarterback. We cannot think of a single reason as to why he would play.
The Lions are coming off a massive effort vs the hated Packers. They’ll now travel to play an AFC team that they see once every leap year. They close out the year with games against the Bucs and Vikes, thus, it’s not unreasonable to expect a down week from the Lions in terms of motivation.
Again, the Lions put up a decent fight versus the Packers. That was their “Super Bowl”. Everyone is just playing to make game tape that the new coaching staff will assess next spring. The season is winding down and the Lions are heading into an offseason of much upheaval. The Lions effort may be like when you give two weeks notice to a job you hate.
Before playing the Bears and Pack in back-to-back weeks, the Lions lost 41-25 to Texas, 20-0 to Carolina, 34-20 to the Vikes and 41-21 to the Colts. That’s when motivation levels were much higher than they figure to be this week and they were also with Stafford taking the snaps. Now remove Stafford and motivation after an all-out effort v Green Bay, add in some travel and playing a non-rival and nothing more needs to be said.
Blowouts happen because situationally, the team that got blown out showed up unprepared/unmotivated/not hungry enough and mentally down. Our job is to try and pinpoint when that may take place and we’re going to trust that we have found a horrible situational spot on the Lions. Meanwhile, the Titans are the complete opposite and can virtually lock up a playoff spot and the AFC South title by beating Detroit here. Finally, only four teams have allowed more passing TDs than Detroit. They are also awful against RBs and by the fourth quarter and perhaps the third, Detroit’s D figures to be gasping for air. This is what blowouts are made of.
A GREAT OFFER FOR SPORTSWAGERS READERS:
We’re offering a better and cheaper alternative to cable TV. You will literally save thousands of dollars. If you’re sick of paying a fortune for programming that you don’t even want or need, this is for you. All pro sports -- EVERY GAME, tons of college football and basketball games and tons of regular programming (non-sports). Over 2500 channels all in HD for a mere $20 per month. You have to be nuts not to get it.
Tennessee -11 -110 (Risking 2.20 units - To Win: 2.00)