Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 1:00 PM EST.
N.Y. Giants +4½ -105 over PHILADELPHIA
8:20 PM EST. Beating Washington produced that all-important first win of the year for the New York Giants but little on this team suggests that a second win is any time soon. HC Joe Judge took over in a very bad year and then lost their only offensive weapon. Even in a win, the offense failed to gain more than 250 yards and scored just one touchdown. The Giants still have the same set of receivers and quarterback as last season, but the installation of the new scheme has not gone well. The challenge isn't bringing in new players to improve the offense, it is just getting as much from them as they gave in 2019. With only two passing touchdowns and three rushing scores on the year, they are not remotely close. They rank No. 31 in quarterbacks and No. 32 in running backs. It was just four days ago that the Giants needed Washington to miss a two-point conversion to win.
It was also just four days ago when the Eagles trailed the Ravens 30-14 with seven minutes left and scored two touchdowns with only a failed two-point play keeping them from tying the score at the end of the fourth quarter. The Eagles last three games were against San Francisco, Pittsburgh and Baltimore and they were one bounce away in all three games from going 3-0. The 38-29 loss to Pittsburgh is a misleading score in a game the Steelers had no business covering in. The Eagles should be 3-0 against the spread (ATS) over their past three games but instead they are still a profitable 2-1. More importantly, their market credibility is on the rise while the Giants have little to no market credibility left.
The Eagles now switch roles. They go from being a significant underdog (+8½, +7½, +10½) in three straight games to the role of expected to win and that’s not a role we want to get behind the Eagles in. Philadelphia has been favored three times this year. The first game of the year they were a -5½-point choice on the road in Washington and lost by 10, failing to cover by 15½ points. The very next week, the Eagles were a -2-point choice over the Rams and failed to cover by 20 points in a 37-19 loss. The Eagles were favored again in Week 3, this time over Cincinnati by -5½. The game ended in a tie and Philadelphia was 0-3 ATS, all as the chalk. During the process of not covering in the first three games of the year, the Eagles stock dropped significantly, where they ended up being a significant dog in three straight and covered all three games. The point is Philadelphia’s stock is high again, thus it’s time to sell again.
You see, the role of the favorite is much different than the role of the underdog and the Eagles are not well suited to be in the role of the latter. The Eagles aren't good enough to play four mistake-free quarters, lack explosive playmakers, aren't accustomed to playing with leads and haven't had enough success closing out games for almost three years.ny victory is usually hard-earned. That’s not the type of team we can recommend spotting points with but it is the type of team worth fading when favored and now said team is going to have to cover on a short week of preparation.
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N.Y. Giants +4½ -108 (Risking 2.16 units - To Win: 2.00)