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TENNESSEE +3 +102 over Buffalo

Pinnacle +3 +102 BET365 +3 -110 SportsInteraction +3 -106 5DIMES +3 -105 Bookmaker +3 +102

Posted at 4:40 PM EST.

TENNESSEE +3 +103 over Buffalo

7:00 PM EST. The 4-0 Bills kept the winning streak alive by beating the Raiders in Las Vegas. The 3-0 Titans took a surprise bye after they became the NFL's version of "it" when the COVID-19 virus rippled through their team and support personnel. The Titans have had no more positive results but it’s impossible to say what the mental aspect of the virus and forced time off mean to the Titans. 

The narrative being thrown around today by all the Twitter handicappers and others is that the Titans haven’t practiced since Sept 26th, you know, the same narrative we were hearing when Houston had that same edge on Minnesota and was down 31-16 with five minutes to play before the 31-23 final score. A lot of good it did the Texans.   

You think the Bills have been thrown for a loop with all the uncertainty surrounding this game? Imagine being the Titans. Starters on both sides of the ball will miss the game with Covid-19, and while they’ve had time to game plan, they’ve barely practiced in two weeks. 

Perhaps the Titans will indeed be rusty. If we had a way to quantify any of the intangibles, we would happily do so but one can speculate until their blue in the face and they still wouldn’t be able to figure out which team will suffer more because of the inconveniences surrounding the pandemic. We’re interested in one thing and one thing only, which is value. Aside from that, we’re not so convinced that the Bills have the intangible edges here. Tennessee is fresh. They have been at home and everyone is fine. They have talent throughout their lineup and they have not played an easier schedule than the Bills. Hell, Buffalo barely got by the Jets and it took a lot of good fortune for them to beat Miami. Give them credit for a big win over the Rams but truth be told, one of the worst pass inferences in recent memory hit the Rams over the head with a steel bat otherwise Buffalo would not be undefeated. Don’t get us wrong. Buffalo is a very decent team that hasn’t looked this good in two decades but isn't the market jumping the gun a little bit here. Rememeber after two weeks how the market was salivating over the Cardinals?

Tennessee is a quality football team too. There might not be a team that is in better physical condition than the Titans and in this odd year with no preseason games or practices, that could be the difference. Finally, we must point out that the Buffalo Bills will be playing their biggest game of the year next week that the entire region is anticipating when they host the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football. That game was originally scheduled for Thursday night Football but it has been moved to Monday Night for obvious reasons. It would seem to us that although Buffalo was indirectly affected by the goings on, they are adversely affected by it at least as much as the Titans. Perhaps Buffalo goes on to win here. Perhaps the Titans are rusty and Buffalo is not. Whatever the case may be, we are 100% convinced that there is a massive overreaction to the Titans situation and the market is eating it up. Tennessee should be favored.


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Our Pick

TENNESSEE +3 +102 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.04)