Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 1:15 PM EST
KANSAS CITY -10½ -109 over New England
7:05 PM EST. Are the Chiefs a market darling? Yup. Are they overvalued? Perhaps so. Is Kansas City a cover machine? You know it is. Does any of that matter? No f**ing way. Folks, we've entered the "Chiefs or nothing" zone.
Kansas City backers have ripped up just one ticket going back to Week 11 of last season and that was Week 2's overtime win against the Chargers in Los Angeles. That was the game where K.C. had a rookie quarterback sprung on it at the last minute. Did the Chiefs take the Chargers lightly as a result? We'll never know. What we do know is that it's a fool's game to bet against Patrick Mahomes at this point. The Chiefs are putting up big points so far, averaging more than 30 a game. There's no other way to describe it. The Chiefs went to Baltimore to face arguably the best defense in the NFL and just had their way with them. The Chiefs have been "scary good" since Patrick Mahomes became a starter and yet they may have never looked better than they did on Monday night. The same team that barely beat the Chargers went nuclear versus the Ravens. That was the real Chiefs and one we fully expect to see again tonight.
The Chiefs were a -7 point favorite before Cam Newton and Sony Michel were ruled out. The question now is how many points are they worth. We have to trust that Newton is worth at least 7 more than Brian Hoyer. Brian Hoyer for god's sake! The Patriots won themselves the Brian Hoyer Sweepstakes and are now the proud owners of a failed Browns QB. Christ. Hoyer beat Auburn QB Jarrett Stidham for the starting job. We’re looking forward to the day BB trades for Jacoby Brissett, Ryan Mallett and Matt Cassel so that all four failed Tom Brady backups can be housed under a single roof. Unless Hoyer got some Brady on him, this can’t turn out well.
The total for this game is in the 49 range. We know for sure that K.C. will theirs. Worst case, K.C. scores 28. More likely is they will be between 28 and 42. If you trust Hoyer to keep pace, go ahead and bet New England but this isn’t Rams v Giants and 49ers v Eagles or even Baltimore v the Football Team. This is Patrick Mahomes and the motivated Chiefs taking on a team that has made a mockery out of their victims for two decades. You don’t think teams, coaches and players would love nothing more to stick it to the Pats when an opportunity arises. Of course they do.
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KANSAS CITY -10½ -109 (Risking 2.18 units - To Win: 2.00)