Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:30 AM EST
L.A. Chargers +7 -106 over TAMPA BAY
1:00 PM EST. The Chargers fell to 1-2 with their surprising loss to the visiting Panthers in Week 3. After that loss, the entire market is writing off the Bolts near-upset of Kansas City the week prior, as the Chiefs were caught in a sandwich spot of a road game between two high-profile games against Houston in the season opener and Baltimore on Monday Night Football. In their other two games, the Chargers beat Cincinnati by three points in a rookie quarterback's debut and lost at home to Carolina. You would be hard-pressed to find a team whose stock has dropped more this week than the Chargers' stock.
The other side of that coin is that Tom Brady and the Bucs are gaining market steam after barely breaking a sweat in Denver last week. The Bucs steamrolled over Denver 28-10 but were never in danger of not covering and the marketplace loves a rocking-chair game. To recap. Tampa has won and covered in consecutive weeks (stock up) while the Chargers loss last week is considered to be unforgivable.
Man, this one checks all the boxes but first first you’ll have to excuse us while we crap our pants in awe of the Buccaneers beating Carolina and Denver. When the Bucs played the Saints, who look kinda ordinary these days, Tampa got buried. Furthermore, the Bolts rank middle of the pack (15th to 17th) in just about every offensive and defensive metric. The Chargers aren’t great but they’re better than average and their new QB, Justin Herbert does not look a bit out of place. Tyrod Taylor getting hurt was a massive blessing for the Chargers. Justin Herbert is injecting life into the offense. Dude has passed for over 300 yards in back-to-back games and it’s no fluke. The Chargers defense looks sharp too, holding Cincinnati to 13 points and then Kansas City to 23 to open the year and then 21 to the Panthers last week. Those are some pretty impressive point totals in this day and age.
Brady is still in a decline but the market has forgotten just how steep it is because he hasn’t played a defense yet. That changes this week. Additionally, the Bucs, who haven’t had this much media interest and coverage in well over a decade, get to showcase their new look on Thursday Night Football on Thursday in Chicago. To recap: Tampa’s stock is high. They play in a prime time game on Thursday in a lookahead spot. They have beaten nobody and lost to what now looks like an average team (New Orleans). Now the Bucs are overpriced against a team whose stock is low. Time to move in.
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L.A. Chargers +7 +104 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.08)