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Posted Thursday, November 28 at 11:15 AM EST

NFL 2019

Week 13

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criterion we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday.

We’re intent on providing our readers with the best possible selections and doing so on Sunday instead of Friday just makes more sense. We made that change last year and ended up going 81-57. Again, we’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST.

Week 13

Oakland +10 -105 over KANSAS CITY

4:25 PM EST. Last week, the Raiders headed to the East Coast to square off with the New York Jets and left many wondering if the Raiders were still in Oakland when that game kicked off. Closing as a 3½-point favorite, the “Nation” attracted plenty of interest, as they came into their clash with Gang Green riding a three-game winning streak. However, Oakland not only failed to cover but they were absolutely obliterated by the Jets who easily put together their most impressive win of the 2019 season when they routed the Raiders 34-3. Market presence and credibility are two things we stress adamantly. The result of Oakland’s massive egg has evaporated whatever credibility the Black and Grey held coming into their match with the Jets. Remember, this was the same Jets’ squad that was Miami’s first win of the season. Moreover, New York had won just three games on the year previous to the blowout victory over Oakland, two of which came against bottom-feeders such as the Giants and Redskins.

On the flip-side, Kansas City’s reputation speaks for itself and by default, the Chiefs brings with them an enhanced market presence that sets them up for an overlay in most scenarios. This is especially the case as we get closer to the postseason. The Chiefs were last in action two weeks ago on a Monday Night stint against divisional rival, Los Angeles. The “Kingdom” would march into the City of Angels and defeat the Bolts 24-17, producing a cover for their backers as a 5½-point choice. When you couple that positive last impression that the Chiefs left with its backers (although they should’ve lost by three TD’s against the Chargers) combined with their overall dominance against Oakland both straight-up (9-1 SU in the last 10 matches) and against the spread (7-3 ATS in the previous 10 contests), it becomes clear where the premium to get behind a team will be. Kansas City laying double-digits to these guests is a clear-cut symptom of an overreaction. It is clear that Oakland had no interest in the Jets and were thinking ahead to this game. Adhering to our philosophies in fading such events along with buying low and selling high, the variables prompt us to take a hard look at Oakland, who is almost certainly working with inflated points.

NEW YORK GIANTS +6½ -105 over Green Bay

1:00 PM EST. There are some individuals who offer “free picks” that feature “expert advice” into some of the match-ups on the Sunday plate. One of the games focused upon by said individuals was this contest. Mirroring the public sentiment to jump all over Green Bay, said handicapper advised the masses to play Green Bay at -6 and drink some juice while they are at it to buy off the half-point. Out of the gate this is a bad practice and it also shows a true lack of confidence in the Packers. Laying extra juice also plays into the house advantage and now this fool is going to sell very low on the Giants to boot. Despite the Giants bad form, they are positioned at an infamous underdog-friendly number that is associated with outright upsets.

Nevertheless, the query will remain: why should the G-Men even show up for this game when they have nothing to play for? Moreover, why should anyone back a team that has lost seven straight? When you fuse these questions with narratives such as the Giants covering just once on their own pitch this season and the Packers “needing” the win to bounce-back from last week’s debacle in the Bay City, Green Bay seems like the obvious pick, right? Wrong. If anything, all of these trends and narratives bolster the value of the home team. As proponents of finding value, we reiterate that the “must-win” angle is a sure-fire approach to a ripped up ticket. Every game is a must-win and we are not so sure that the Giants are keen to throw in the towel just yet. You see, four of Big Blue’s previous five losses were settled by a touchdown or less. Had a few bounces gone in New York’s way, perhaps we would be talking about a 6-5 Giants team still in the playoff conversation. Unfortunately, in-game variance has been cruel to the Giants but if there is anyone looking to “right the ship” here, it’s the G-Men. A win over a reputable opponent such as the Packers will be just as important for the New York Football Giants as anything, as it will signal to its supporters that this franchise is on the way back up and that the best days of the Daniel Jones era are yet to come. Maybe Green Bay was exposed for what they truly are last week and now it’s the Giants turn to expose them even more. Grab the points.

BALTIMORE -5½ -105 over San Francisco

1:00 PM EST. The Ravens were heavily bet last week in a stand alone prime time game and they rewarded their backers with a rocking chair classic after running up the score on the Rams in a 45-6 mauling on Monday Night Football. There is no team in the NFL making headlines like Baltimore and Lamar Jackson is getting MVP chants wherever he goes. The Ravens have won seven in a row by a combined 135-26, which means they are scoring at will, while giving up very little in return. We could pour all over the stats, but we’ll leave the gushing to the pick sellers and pundits. However, it looks as though the Ravens are a freight train that is quite frankly, nearly impossible to step in front of.

This looks to be the game of the day, at least in the early slate, as we have two teams coming off huge prime time blow out victories. Let’s now look at the 49ers, who exposed the Packers for the frauds that they are in a 37-8 drubbing. We suspect that win over the now 8-3 Pack is likely going to hold more weight in this market, as Green Bay was heavily backed on SNF, while NOBODY was on the Rams on Monday night. That suggests to us that the potential for a “zig-zag” is, in fact with the ‘Niners. That San Francisco is a consensus play as a pooch in this spot was at first a bit of a surprise to be honest, but the 49ers are still 10-1 and in this day in age, many in this market are trying to be “sharp” and a 10-win team is the kind of underdog that is easy to back. It’s not often a dog gets the lion's share of the action and when they do, as the Packers did last week with the late money pouring in, that is not the side we want to be on. In addition to that potential red flag, we’d also be hesitant to get behind the 49ers here, as Pinnacle, the sharpest book on the planet, opened this line a full point higher than outfits like Sports Interaction and Bet365. Pinny does not mess around, as they deal with high limit players. Perhaps they’re just trying to protect themselves after the market feasted easily with the Ravens on Monday night. Still, the more likely scenario is that they took a stand on this game and wanted all the action on the 49ers they could get before the rest of the market caught up. We’ll see where the money is going on Sunday morning to find out which theory is the correct one. Until then, we’re not going to cross the boss but we are leaning to the chalk and it could very well make our board.

JACKSONVILLE +1½ -105 over Tampa Bay

1:00 PM EST. When you turn the ball over, as the Buccaneers and specifically quarterback Jameis Winston are apt to do, it makes it really had to cash tickets. Winston has two of the league’s leading receivers at his disposal and he’s racked up 22 touchdown passes and nearly 3400 yards so far this season. That’s good for second place in both of those stat categories. There is a price to pay for those big offensive numbers, however, as Winston is also tops in interceptions with 20. Eight of those have come over the last three games. Those results were mixed with a win, but not cover against the Cardinals in Week 10, a 34-17 blowout loss to the Saints and last week’s 35-22 downing of the Falcons in Atlanta. The Dirty Birds matched turnovers with the Bucs, which negated the crushing effect Winston’s picks can have on his team. Even with all that said, we trust the market will value the Bucs' most recent result the most, which is why this line stinks so much.

The Jaguars are either the sucker bet of the weekend or they’re the best wager on the board in Week 13. Jacksonville got destroyed by the Titans 42-20 and have now been outscored 75-33 since quarterback Nick Foles returned from injury. Remember when Minshew Mania was running wild? That seems like it was years ago, not weeks. Those looking for a return of the rookie pivot may have also forgotten he and these Jags were blown out 26-3 in Houston in Week 9, which means that Jacksonville has lost three straight by double-digits. How the hell are oddsmakers going to hang a number like this and not drive the market to back a Buccaneers team that put up nearly as many points last Sunday as the Jags have in the last month? We trust the books are not leaving themselves exposed on purpose. Tampa is playable because everyone knows they have the talent to win on any given Sunday and to win big while Jacksonville seems to be unplayable right now. This might be the biggest buy low/sell high opportunity on the board this week and we’ll see where the price ends up on Sunday before deciding whether to step in or not.

CINCINNATI +3 -106 over N.Y. Jets

1:00 PM EST. The Jets might be the hottest team in the league after posting three straight double-digit wins. That run of success now has Gang Green spotting points on the road in Cincinnati, which is a much different role than they one they were in over the last few weeks when they were a pooch to Giants, Redskins and Raiders, respectively. Two of those three teams are among the worst to suit up in the NFL this season, but that win over Oakland may have given the Jets some legitimacy in this market, however, don't get caught up in the playoff chatter this team is generating this week. That 34-3 win over the Raiders made the back pages in The Big Apple, but quarterback Sam Darnold's exploits after the game were far more publicized on Page Six. We'll leave the more delicate details of the evening for the gossip columns, but there is no denying that the second-year quarterback and a few teammates were out celebrating with a bit of the bubbly. One source said it was like, "They'd just won the Super Bowl," which is pretty hilarious when you consider the Jets started the season 1-7 with Darnold missing multiple games with mono. It appears he's feeling better. There is no doubt the Jets' stock is soaring, while the Bengals continue to sink into the abyss. It’s also worth noting that Oakland has K.C. this week, which means they could have been caught looking ahead last week when they flew across the country for an early game.  

Cincinnati head coach Zac Taylor tried to rid himself of one Andrew Gregory Dalton, but that cat came back. Dalton is set to start this week for the Bengals and Taylor said, “It was not an easy decision, but it's in the best interest of the football team." Regardless of who suits up for the winless Bungles, we doubt there will be much interest in a team that had cashed three tickets this season and just one in the last five games. There is no X's and O's case that can be made to get behind the Bengals, but we're not in that business, nor are we interested in predicting the outcomes of these games. What we will do is look for teams that are spotting more points than the should be and this week, the Jets fit that bill. No team wants to go winless and the Bungles just might be inspired to play hard now that their quarterback will be able to throw the ball five yards. We know at least one Bengal that will be highly motivated to get his job back. Can Cincy get off the schneid? Damn right, it can.

MIAMI +10 -110 over Philadelphia

1:00 PM EST. We suspect what little goodwill the Dolphins built up after two straight victories, including a road win in Indianapolis as an 11-point underdog, is long gone after back-to back drubbings by both the Bills (37-20) and Browns (41-24). Just two weeks ago, the Fish were taking back a measly converted touchdown at home to a quality Buffalo outfit and now they are getting double-digits to a battered and beaten Eagles side that was booed off their home field last Sunday. Something here doesn't add up.

The Eagles entered that game against the Seahawks down wide receivers Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson and Nelson Agholor. A pair of Pro Bowl offensive lineman in Lane Johnson and Brandon Brooks and they were without lead runner Jordan Howard. Jeffrey and Agholor were back at practice Wednesday, as was Johnson, but he is still in the league's concussion protocol and has not been cleared to play. Meanwhile, tight end Zach Ertz was absent from Wednesday’s practice because of a sore hamstring. Finally, Eagles starting quarterback Carson Wentz is dealing with a bruised throwing hand, which he dinged up on a muffed handoff to backup running back Miles Sanders in the third quarter of that ugly 17-9 loss to Seattle. We believe the "next man up" philosophy more than most, but stepping up and winning a game is much different than being asked to cover an inflated number on the road against uninspiring non-conference competition. If the Eagles get a few bodies back, this line will likely go up. Also factor in the fact that Philadelphia will host the Giants on Monday Night Football next week and you have the perfect recipe for a "look ahead" situation. Hold your nose and take these foul Fish. We hate this game and won’t spend much time on it.

Pittsburgh +2½ -110 over Cleveland

1:00 PM EST. For some perspective on how lopsided this "rivalry" has been over the years, one only has to do a quick Google search to find out that the Browns have not been favored in the Steel City in three decades. Clay Matthews (that would be junior, the father and namesake of the current Rams linebacker) led the Brownies defense that day when he scored the first major off a fumble in a 51-0 beatdown. It was a simpler time to be sure before smartphones, instant replay and the births of many of the players in this game. Those looking for a streetfight or perhaps some revenge after the ruckus caused by Browns’ defensive lineman Myles Garrett and his attempted murder of Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph might be disappointed to know that Rudoph's days as the starter are numbered, as head coach Mike Tomlin confirmed it would be Devlin Hodges under center. "Duck" as his coach affectionately referred to him this week came in to spark an offense that could not get anything going against the winless Bengals and led his team to the win. Tomlin didn’t just replace Rudolph as the starter; he hit him with a verbal blow that would make Garrett blush. When asked about why "Duck" was getting the nod, Tomlin simply replied, "He's not killed us." Usually, coaches will use kid gloves to save the fragile ego of a young pivot, but not Tomlin; he threw Rudolph right under the bus and for good reason, he stinks and we present the four interceptions he threw against the Bungles as proof. We read one pundit ask hilariously how could Tomlin go back to Rudolph after torching him so spectacularly. The answer is, he won't. And really, are we to believe that the Steelers are going to be any worse with Hodges? “Duck” took home the Walter Payton Award in 2018 while at Samford. That award is given to the most outstanding offensive player in FCS. Other NFLers that have held that hardware include Cooper Kupp, Jimmy Garoppolo and former Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo. Not bad company.

For Cleveland, a win in Pittsburgh is going to be a big deal regardless of who suits up in Black and Gold, but there are a ton of red flags to sort through here. First, the Browns beat the Steelers in that brouhaha two weeks ago and they were spotting just a field goal at home. Now, they are on the road and without their best pass rusher. We don't have enough fingers to try and process the math on that one. Secondly, while the Browns are on a modest three-game win streak, one of those victories came over the Dolphins (yawn), while another was a luck fueled 19-16 W over the Bills in a game the Browns probably should have lost if not for a gift call from the officials that overturned a Bills defensive touchdown that would have sealed the deal for Buffalo. Are we to suddenly believe that the dysfunctional Brownies are worthy of being road chalk? Cleveland is a selfish, poorly-coached team that lost six of their first eight games before three unimpressive wins, which includes giving up 24 points to the putrid Dolphins last week. Win or lose, Cleveland is a bad wager this week.

DENVER +3 -103 over L.A. Chargers

4:25 PM EST. We've read that this is a "must-win" for the Chargers, as the Broncos have already been eliminated from playoff contention at 3-8. However, the Bolts are 4-7 and despite their still being alive mathematically, we're going to go ahead and take Philip Rivers behind the barn and mercifully end this season. Tom Brady thinks Philip got old this season, as the 38-year-old pivot looks like he's 58 after throwing 15 interceptions to just 14 majors. Sure, he's passed for 3000 yards for the 14th straight season, but many of those yards have come with the Chargers trailing and are not an indication that Rivers still has "it." Trust us when we tell you he doesn't. The only reason Philip is still starting in lieu of Tyrod Taylor is because he's currently the NFL ironman at quarterback with 219 straight starts, which is the second-longest behind Brett Favre's 297. Philip Rivers is Jameis Winston now only worse because Winston can run. Rivers is an immobile QB that puts up the same stats as Winston only without the running yards. It’s the same crap week after week…..28 out for 42 for 397 yards and four picks. 380 yards, 3 picks, 270 yards, 3 picks. Dude is going to turn it over and while we cannot predict turnovers, in this case it would be unreasonable not to expect at least two on the road against a ferocious defense.

With the visiting team’s QB’s time at the helm is coming to an end, the Broncos might be ready to welcome the future here in Week 13. Second-round draft pick Drew Lock is practicing after suffering a thumb injury back in the preseason. Lock is still a game-time decision, but he's going to be the QB for the Broncs sooner rather than later. Lock was a stud at Missouri and he brings an absolute cannon for an arm to the battlefield. Lock's best season at Mizzou was actually his junior year in 2017 and had he declared then; he may have been a first-round draft pick in a loaded class that included Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Instead, he returned to the Tigers but failed to match the big-time numbers he posted the season prior. That decision no doubt lowered his draft stock, but the Broncos may have gotten a real deal. With many of his contemporaries from the 2018 draft all starting, is it unreasonable to suggest that Lock can step in a make a difference here late in the season? The Broncs are playing for next year, no doubt, but there is no reason not to take Lock for a test drive and put his highly touted fastball to work. Even if Lock doesn't get the nod, this incarnation of the Chargers should not be spotting road points inside the division "must-win" or not.

That said, we're very likely passing on the Broncs because there are too many unknowns for us to get involved. Four starters on the defensive side of the ball are listed as questionable. Duke Dawson and Shelby Harris could miss the contest, while Vic Fangio said on Friday that both Von Miller and Alexander Johnson are 50-50 bets to play. What makes this an even bigger deal is backup linebacker Josey Jewell is also hurt and could sit. With Denver clearly playing for next year, caution must be the approach regarding the core players. If there’s any chance Von could do further damage to his knee by playing through the pain, it’s probably best for both he and the Broncos to shut him down. Even if you’re riding the “Trade-Miller” train, it doesn’t make sense to watch him blow up his knee and destroy any potential value he’d have on the market. Denver's pass rush could be non-existent today and that would be a massive reason to not get behind them. There are better games.

INDIANAPOLIS -2 -104 over Tennessee

1:00 PM EST. A closer look at the last three weeks just might give us some insight as to who the undervalued squad is in this tight race between two of the three teams duking it out in the AFC South. The Texans have a one-game lead over both the Titans and Colts, but they’ve got a tough game with the Patriots on Sunday Night Football. A loss and this division race will be blown wide open. Now back to the two 6-5 teams in question. First, let’s look at the suddenly surging Titans, who are racking up a ton of points after posting a combined 77 in back-to-back wins over the Chiefs and Jags. The victory over Kansas City really pads the résumé, but if you watched any of that game, you know that Tennessee got the break of all breaks after K.C. botched a field goal attempt and instead of going up by eight and getting the fuck out of Dodge, the Chiefs lost all momentum. The Titans marched down the field for the game-winning touchdown and credit one must credit them for doing so, but had that kick been made, at best, they would have been in position to tie it up with a 2-point conversion. That victory is going to hold much more weight than the Titans 42-20 downing of Jacksonville, but those big points certainly give the Titans more curb appeal for wagerers looking for a play.

When you lose to the lowly Dolphins, it’s going to take a lot more than beating up on Jacksonville to get your credibility back. Nevermind that the Colts had to play Brian Hoyer at quarterback or that he was without T.Y. Hilton, when you drop a game outright as 11-point chalk, this market is not going to be very forgiving. Much will be made this week, as the Colts I.R. is still loaded with pass-catching tight end Eric Ebron joining Hilton, along with starting running back Marlon Mack and a few key members of the defense on the sidelines this week. Those injuries and the recent run of success by the Titans is likely why this number has dropped since opening at -3 in favor of the Blue Horseshoe. If that number continues to come down, this game might make our board, but there appears to be more appealing options to choose from this week.

CAROLINA -10 -103 over Washington

1:00 PM EST. There's not much to be said here, as we have no interest in backing the Redskins after escaping with a nice cash on the money line last week and we aren't spotting double-digits with a team like the Panthers. It's unlikely the Cats are going to be outclassed here by an outfit like the 'Skins, who needed every break in the book just to beat the Jeff Driskel led Lions last week. Washington didn't even score an offensive touchdown in that game, as they relied on a rare kickoff return for a touchdown and four Dustin Hopkins field goals, including two in the final two minutes just to seal the 19-16 victory. You read that right; the 'Skins were down with 1:52 to go in that game. Driskel gifted Washington the victory with an interception with less than a minute to play. Washington is not the kind of team you want to get behind, no matter how inflated the pile of points might be.

The Panthers go from being a 10-point dog last Sunday and now are spotting a similar price here, which makes for an extreme change in role and expectations. The Cats also took the Saints right down to the wire and if not for multiple kicking follies, including a 28-yard attempt with two minutes to go that had no chance to split the uprights, they were in the driver's seat to win that game. The Panthers deserved a better fate and the players know it. Again, the Cats probably cover this game easily, but there is little chance they are going to be as jacked for this one as they were for the division leading Saints. That win would also have extended the Panthers slim playoff hopes an extra week, but at 5-6, they are cooked in the top-heavy NFC. That adrenaline dump and this seemingly toothless invader might make for a mixed bag Sunday afternoon. Hard pass.

L.A. Rams -3 +106 over ARIZONA

4:05 PM EST. The Cardinals were off last week so it's easy to lose track of the four straight defeats they racked up heading into their bye. The last time we saw Arizona, it was a popular pick in the market to cover anywhere from the opening line of 13½ to the closing number of 9½. If you had the Cardinals at 10 or greater, you were likely fuming, as they blew not only a legit chance to beat a 49ers squad that could not hang on to the football but they also fumble fucked away the cover on a botched lateral that the San Francisco defense took to the house as time expired to make the final 36-26. The Red Birds were actually up with less than a minute to play but could not keep the ‘Niners out of the endzone. Couple that result with the Cards cashing tickets in their two games prior to the break and there could be an appetite for Arizona in this spot. That might prove to be especially true with any Week 12 Rams backers that lost their dinner watching that shitshow Monday night.

Jumping on board with a side that is coming off a lopsided loss is a strategy we often employ, as those teams are often undervalued the next time out. You can multiply that by 100 when said club gets blasted in primetime on Monday Night Football. Enter the Rams, who cannot get anything right these days after a 3-5 run. L.A.’s 3-0 start to the season has long been forgotten, as it now sits third in the NFC West behind the 49ers and Seahawks. Quarterback Jared Goff and head coach Sean McVay are getting torched by the pundits with many now questioning what was so appealing about that pair in the first place. They are also questioning why Goff is getting paid boatloads of jack for such substandard results. Has any Q.B./coach combo’s stock fallen any farther than those two this season? Last year, McVay was a genius and his former assistants were getting head coaching jobs across the league. Now, he’s the most overrated play-caller in the game. There is no reason to dissect the Rams 45-6 no show against the Ravens, as Baltimore is torching just about everybody these days and that game was over before most of the crowd could beat the traffic on Interstate 110. While all things are obviously not equal, L.A. was spotting 14½ points in this spot last season and now they are priced in a much more manageable range. Extreme underlay.

HOUSTON +3½ -105 over New England

8:20 PM EST. The Patriots record is now 10-1. Forgotten quickly is the pounding the Pats took from the Ravens four weeks ago because they had a bye the the very next week and then they went out and beat Philadelphia and subsequently Dallas last week in the driving rain. At 10-1 and coming off three high profile games in a row, the Patriots will now play their fourth high profile game in a row.

Give the Patriots credit for doing what it takes to win games and also give the refs credit for aiding the Patriots by calling penalties on things that aren’t even there. It’s one thing to miss a call, that happens to every referee in every sport, but to make up stuff that didn’t happen gives the league and its officials a bad look. In New England’s win over Dallas last week, the Cowboys were called for tripping twice.

The NFL informed the Dallas Cowboys on Monday that the two controversial tripping calls against left tackle Tyron Smith and center Travis Frederick should not have been called. Both penalties proved to be critical drive killers. Smith’s came in the first quarter and turned a second-and 13 into a second-and-23. The Patriots blocked a punt two plays later, which quarterback Tom Brady turned into the only touchdown of the game. The Frederick penalty negated a first down catch by Ezekiel Elliott as the Cowboys were driving for a potential go-ahead score late in the fourth quarter. It’s been 10 years since two tripping calls happened in the same game to the same team but the ones last Sunday didn’t even happen! The refs made up something in their minds and it’s getting out of hand already. Although this editorial has nothing to do with this game v the Texans, it just might because all eyes will be on the refs again in this prime time game and perhaps New England won’t get every call. Perhaps, just perhaps, the Texans in their own crib will get a call or two.

We saw Lamar Jackson rip apart the Patriots “great defense” and Deshaun Watson plays a similar style. We’re seeing New England win every week but it’s been by slim margins lately against weak opponents. The Pats also have not played against a winning record while on the road other than their loss to the Ravens. Furthermore, the Patriots have the visiting Chiefs next week to keep their No. 1 seed and that could take away focus from this game. Finally, New England has a flu bug going around. Eight players missed practice on Wednesday and even if they all recover, it’s still an exhausting sport that is difficult to play at a high level every week when one is healthy. It takes at least a day or two to get one’s strength back after battling a flu bug. With K.C. on deck and with this being the Pats fourth high profile game in a row, all the Texans have to do is come in and not play stupid and then the Patriots become very beatable. Houston isn’t exactly built to beat New England but what they have done over the years is put up points against them and should they do that here, New England cannot go punch for punch with them anymore.

DETROIT +5½ -105 over Chicago

12:30 PM EST. The Lions have lost seven of their past eight games, coach Matt Patricia is on the hot seat, and a local radio station and a local columnist have each called for Detroit fans to not show up Thursday to send a message to the Ford family about the direction of the franchise. The line jumped yesterday as soon as the news came out that Detroit’s second string QB Jeff Driskel can’t go. Thus, to make matters worse, the Lions are down to their third string QB. David Blough will make his first NFL start. 

The Lions acquired Blough at the league's cut-down deadline after the preseason in a trade with Cleveland. They've kept him on the roster all season as a third quarterback, but he has yet to play a snap. Blough is an undrafted rookie that was Purdue's starting quarterback last season, throwing for 3,521 yards, 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Detroit’s market appeal is getting worse by the sentence but in case you needed more reasons to lay off the Lions, there’s two more nuggets. In its past 11 Thanksgiving Day games, Detroit is 1-10 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog going back to 2004. The Lions have also failed to cover in six straight. Meanwhile, the Bears have won two of their past three and are permitting an average of just 16.6 points per game over their past five contests. Betting against the Lions is a Thanksgiving tradition unlike any other.

Look it, we’re not betting the Lions but we sure as hell aren’t betting the Bears either. Chicago is a massive risk spotting significant points on the road on a short week. If you’re betting Chicago or under the total, bet it ASAP because the total will drop and the price to get behind Chicago will increase. In this first game of every teaser and parlay bet, Chicago will be heavily backed and that’s a sure sign for us to lay off. The value is on Detroit but that doesn’t mean they’re playable. Although one of these teams will cover, Chicago isn’t playable either because the points are slightly inflated. 

My friends, no bullshit here…...Finnie and I went back into the archives and looked up our record on Thanksgiving Day in the NFL and it’s been a disaster for over a decade. Perhaps it has something to do with the short week and other intangibles (big meals, family in town, ticket requests, partying, big stage, etc) but we have decided that we don’t want to get too involved in these games. Instead we’re going to sit the games out today and just give out our recommendations based on the same approach we’ve had for years. If we knew what to change on Thanksgiving Day to get better results, we would change it but we don’t.   

DALLAS -6½ -105 over Buffalo

4:30 PM EST. Although +6½ is a notorious underdog price, one cannot bet it blindly every time it pops up. If we’re using the buy-low, sell-high angle and then adding in the intangibles and other things that we’ll get to in a minute, it would appear to us that the value here lies within the favored Cowboys. What we have here is the 8-3 Bills taking back significant points against the 6-5 Cowboys. Furthermore, the 6-5 Cowboys just lost to the Patriots last Sunday and although it wasn’t a “prime-time” game, it may as well have been because it was just one of two games in the late afternoon slot last Sunday with Tennessee playing Jacksonville being the other game. 99 out of every 100 viewers weren’t watching Tennessee. The point is, the ‘Boys pitiful performance last Sunday was on full display while earlier in the day, the Bills were laying waste to the Broncos. It’s also worth noting that Dallas has yet to beat a team with a winning record this year and now they’re spotting this price to a team that is 8-3. Finally, Cowboys Coach, Jason Garrett is taking plenty of heat for his continued mismanagement of in-game situations. The local media stokes that fire.  Based on all of the above, the Bills have far more market appeal for this game, so don’t be surprised to see this line drop another half point to Dallas -6.

When an underdog looks too good to the betting market, it’s raises red flags over here. A closer look at Buffalo’s 8-3 record and things start to look a little bit gloomier. Buffalo’s last four wins were against Denver, Washington and the Miami Dolphins, not once but twice. The Bills are 4-2 in their last six with the two losses occurring against Philadelphia and Cleveland, not exactly the cream of the crop. Incidentally, the last time Dallas saw Philadelphia five weeks ago, they crushed them, 37-10. The Bills other four wins came against Eli Manning and the Giants in Week 2, the Jets in Week 1 when Buffalo was trailing 16-0 going to the fourth quarter, Cincinnati in which they needed a late TD to even win and the Marcus Mariota-led Tennessee Titans by a TD. Buffalo scored 14 points in that win over Tennessee. So, eight wins in and we ask, which is Buffalo’s best win? Tennessee? Denver? The Bills have played 11 games and all their wins came against teams that have no fucking idea who their QB is next week. Denver replaced Flacco, Miami replaced Josh Rosen with Fitzmagic, then they went to Rosen again and then Fitzmagic again. Tennessee is using Miami’s ex QB, who replaced Mariota. Cinci started with Andy Dalton, then went to Ryan Lindsay and is now back to Dalton this week. Washington has had 12 QB’s this season, the Giants have used two and are looking for a third and the Jets have used three. That’s Buffalo’s winning résumé this year. 

The Cowboys are going to be far and away the best offense that Buffalo has faced this year and they’ll do so on a short week traveling away. The Bills lost 31-13 to Philadelphia at almost the exact same time that Dallas beat Philly, 37-10. The Bills have seriously not faced an offense that’s even worth mentioning. It’s been one garbage offense after another the entire season except for when they faced an Eagles’ team with playmakers. How good is Buffalo’s defense? We have no idea because of the slew of dregs they have faced the entire year. That “great” defense of the Bills has been exploited in the running game multiple times and there’s no reason to believe Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys won't be able to do the same. The points indeed look appealing but be very careful if you’re thinking of taking them. Dallas is the true value play here. This is our strongest lean of the triple-header today but we're still going to pass.

ATLANTA +7 -105 over New Orleans

8:20 PM EST. It is literally impossible to know which Falcons’ squad is going to show up here. We probably made a big mistake last week when we backed them against the Bucs with this game on deck but hindsight is 20/20. Between the Dirty Birds awful 1-7 start, two-game win streak (both on the road) and then a flat spot at home vs. the Buccaneers, it’s equivalent to rolling the dice and hoping they land the right way. 

We certainly have our reservations about backing the Falcons here, as one of those two aforementioned wins during that bright spot was vs. these very Saints. That game was just three weeks ago in which Atlanta held Drew Brees to 6.3 yards per pass attempt, limited the Saints to 52 rushing yards and did not allow them into the end zone. Expecting something similar out of the Falcons here is unreasonable. Still, spotting this many points on the road on a short week cannot be recommended.  

The 9-2 Saints easily lead the AFC South by four games and are still in the lead for the No. 2 seed. The Falcons dominated the Panthers in Week 11 but then fell apart again last week. This will help indicate whether the Falcons really have turned a corner or just turned in two surprisingly good games and again, it’s impossible to know what they are or what they’ll bring to the table. There is a good chance that the Saints just overlooked the Falcons when they lost to them but even if that was the case, spotting this many road points on a short week is risky business. Frankly, we're not spotting the points and we're not interested in holding a ticket on the Falcons either.

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