Pinnacle -3½ +102 Bet365 -3½ -105 SportsInteraction -3½ -105 5DIMES -3½ -105 888Sport -3½ -105

ATLANTA -3½ +102 over Tampa Bay

1:00 PM EST. This is the one game we are changing gears in, as we originally had the Buccaneers targeted but a closer look has us leaning very strongly to the favorite. For one, everywhere we turn, we’re hearing the same narrative surrounding this game with that being that is a battle between two of the weakest defenses in the league. In every report or preview, you’ll see something like this:

Both teams sit at 3-7 entering this one. Neither team has been playing good defense this season, so fans should expect a high-scoring affair despite the lack of playoff implications.The Buccaneers have the NFL’s second-worst defense having given up 313 points. The Atlanta Falcons haven’t fared much better having yielded 262 points entering NFL week 12.

The general sense we’re getting from the market is that they do not trust Atlanta as the chalk. They do not trust a team that has one home win this season. We had originally figured the Bucs stock to be much lower than the Falcons but as it turns out, that’s not the case at all. The market is not trusting Atlanta and it’s also not putting a lot of weight on Atlanta’s “sudden turnaround” and that’s our cue to move in.

You see, Atlanta changed defensive coordinators two weeks ago just prior to facing the Saints. They then went out and put relentless pressure on Drew Brees and ended up winning outright despite being a 13-point underdog. Last week was no different. In successive weeks, Atlanta has dominated the division-rival Saints and Carolina Panthers with valiant efforts from the defense. Now that hat new-found Falcons pass rush gets their shot at the mistake-prone Jameis Winston. Jameis Winston is like a bad poker player. He’ll win from time to time but the more decisions he’s forced to make, the better it is for everyone at the table. The same thing applies on the gridiron. Atlanta is going nowhere because of a horrible start but we’re not going to ignore back-to-back dominant wins over two quality clubs with one of those being against one of the Super Bowl favorites. It’s no coincidence that the two quality performances occurred when they did.

Football games have a ton of in-game variance. If we could predict which team was going to get the subjective calls, turnovers and other crazy stuff that can occur in a football game, we’d be beyond rich. However, from time to time a game like this comes up where the worst decision making QB in the game is going to be forced into making a lot of quick decisions. An aggressive pass rush by Atlanta likely means some offensive holding calls, thus putting the Bucs behind the sticks and putting Winston into some uncomfortable third and long situations. Since penalties and turnovers decide 99% of all games, one has to feel pretty good about the Bucs turning it over more while taking more penalties too. Getting behind the Falcons here at a deflated price is suddenly looking pretty sweet to us.

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