BEST LINES:  Pinnacle BET 365 SportsInteraction 5DIMES 888Sport  

Posted Friday, November 22 at 12:30 PM EST

NFL 2019

Week 12

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criterion we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday.

We’re intent on providing our readers with the best possible selections and doing so on Sunday instead of Friday just makes more sense. We made that change last year and ended up going 81-57. Again, we’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST.

Oakland -3 -110  over N.Y. JETS

1:00 PM EST. Oakland opened at -3½ on Monday but that number didn’t last long, as the early money came pouring in on the Jets. That wasn’t difficult to predict, as the Jets just finished crushing their opponent while the Raiders were tooth and nail to beat the Bengals. On paper, the Jets appear to be gaining steam. The narrative we’re hearing is that the offense is finding an identity and it’s starting to pay dividends. The Jets are coming off back-to-back 34 point outbursts. The other narrative is that the Raiders struggled against Cincinnati and won by a lousy 7 points while scoring just 17. We now get an opportunity to sell high on the Jets are that’s exactly what we’re going to do.

Other things you are going to hear or read about this week is that the West Coast, warm weather Raiders are flying across the country to play the cold weather, East Coast Jets. What you will not read or hear from any source is that Sam Darnold played his college career in Southern California. The point is, it means jack but pick sellers will try and convince anyone that’ll listen that it matters. Pay no attention to the Raiders struggles against Cincinnati. They were coming off a game against the Chargers and had an easy opponent come in. It’s not the first time a superior team has labored against a much weaker opponent. It happens every week in this emotionally charged game. The Raiders have more impressive performances than not. They’ve beaten the Bears, Colts, Broncos and Chargers, four of the best defensive teams in the NFL. They’ve beaten the teams they were supposed to beat. The Raiders four losses have occurred against four playoff teams, Kansas City, Minnesota, Green Bay and Houston.

As for the Jets, well colour us unimpressed for wins over the Giants and ‘Skins. Have we all forgotten what a joke the Jets are? They were the first team this year to lose to the Dolphins. They got smoked by the Patriots in a game Sam Darnold threw for 86 yards. They got destroyed by Jacksonville the week after looking putrid v New England. What, they beat the Skins and Giants and now they’re getting respect? We repeat, the Raiders opened at -3½, a favorite number but recency bias has the market buying up the Jets and now we’re the beneficiaries a very favorable price.

Denver +3½ -107 over BUFFALO

1:00 PM EST. We pointed out how underpriced the Bills were last week against a horrible Dolphins team but somehow the market didn’t see it that way. The final score of 37-20 was flattering to the Fish, as Miami returned a kickoff for 7 and were gifted another 7.  Now the zig-zag theory is in effect. Throw out Buffalo’s last game v Miami and the Bills have been outgained in three of their last four. The only team they outgained over that stretch was Washington and they only outgained the ‘Skins by a lousy 25 yards. Buffalo is not well suited to be spotting points like this to quality football teams that come to play every week. Buffalo has a one-point win over the Jets this year, a four-point win over Cinci, a 7-point win over Tennessee in a game they scored 14 points in. In a 50/50 game to win outright, we’re thrilled to be taking back four points with the competitive Broncos.

Yeah, we heard. The Broncs blew a 20-point lead to the Vikes but didn’t they have to build a 20-point lead to be able to blow it? The Broncs were even down in the red-zone in the final minute with a chance to win it but came up just a bit short. It’s not the first time the Broncos just fell short this year. Denver is 3-7 this year. The Broncs have three, two-point losses this year, to Chicago, Jacksonville and Indy. They have another two, one score losses. The Broncs have been in a position to win five games that they lost otherwise we’d be talking about a 7-3 team and not a 3-7 team. This business is all result oriented. The market or media doesn’t give a fuck how a team won or lost and because of it we’re continually provided opportunities like this. Brandon Allen passed for 240 yards and one score in Minnesota last week. He passed for 193 yards and two scores in his debut against the Browns. In his two starts, Allen and the Broncs have a five-point win and a four-point loss. We’re not going to worry about the Broncs being mentally down after blowing that lead last week either as some will suggest. We’re seeing the Broncs compete every week and we don’t see any signs on social media or from practice that suggests they are mentally beaten down. Denver is on the verge of being a very decent squad and surely they can compete and/or win outright here. 

CINCINNATI +6½ -101 over Pittsburgh

1:00 PM EST. The 5-5 Steelers come off their ugly loss to the Browns that ended with Myles Garrett trying to put Mason Rudolph's helmet back on his head. That ended the Steelers four-game winning streak in a game that the Steelers looked completely unprepared to play. The 0-10 Bengals march on towards their No. 1 pick in the 2020 draft which has become a lock now that they changed quarterbacks.

Good news is that Cincinnati is 0-10 and nobody wants to back them. That’s good news because the prices against the Bengals are extra inflated every week just like they were last week when we ended up getting +13 with them on Sunday. Those that took Oakland earlier in the week at -11 beat the closing line. Although we’re not cashing tickets every week when getting behind the Bengals, they almost have to be played because the prices are so good and this week is no exception.

Needing Mason Rudolph to do something is a position we don’t want to be in either. Rudolph passed for 229 yards and two scores on the visiting Bengals in Week 4. He only managed one other game since then where he threw for more than one touchdown and he remains very pedestrian in yardage. Injuries to the wideouts may further deplete his weapons.

For the Steelers last week in Cleveland, it was an ugly loss. The net was that the Steelers will be without C Maurkice Pouncey for two games. James Conner was cleared to play last week after missing two games with a shoulder injury but he ended up re-injuring it and missing most of the game. His status won't be certain until later in the week. WR Diontae Johnson suffered a significant concussion in the loss to the Browns and may not be cleared for this matchup. Early speculation has him more likely to miss. JuJu Smith-Schuster was also forced from the game last week with a concussion. He is no lock to play. The toughest part of this game is determining exactly which players are healthy enough to play but we certainly don’t want to get caught holding a ticket on the Steelers depleted lineup when they’re being asked to spot significant road points.

The Bengals are also banged up in a big way. The Bengals renewed commitment to futility got a boost when they lost Auden Tate to an ugly tackle that had him carted from the field. The passing stats have taken a nose-dive with Ryan Finley under center but quite counter-intuitive is an improved rushing offense. The Bengals haven't scored more than one touchdown in a game since Week 7. Finley has two starts and totals just one touchdown against two interceptions and two lost fumbles. Finley hasn't passed for more than 167 yards in a game.

Still, no team wants to go winless. Furthermore, the Bengals are playing with house money, low expectations and no pressure. The Steelers are playing for the playoffs. This rivalry should have the Bengals jacked up. It’s not only a chance to win a game but it’s also a chance to make life completely miserable for the Steelers. If we’re sticking to playing value, there are two choices here, either lay off the game or take the points. Spotting inflated points with a depleted Steelers team that isn’t very good to begin with is not an option.

CHICAGO -6 -106 over N.Y. Giants

1:00 PM EST. It's not going to be easy to pull the trigger on the Bears this week and we do not blame anyone for not wanting to hold a ticket on this team, but the Giants aren't any better after each of these teams have failed to cover in five of their last six games. The difference is the Bears' warts were exposed for the football world to see last Sunday night in a stinker against the Rams. The Bears woes go back to their 24-21 loss to the Raiders in London in Week 5 with their only victory coming against the Jeff Driskel led Lions in Week 10. The Bears were expected to win the NFL North this season and after 10 games, they are looking up at both the Packers and Vikings, both of which have at least twice as many victories as 4-6 Chicago. Meanwhile, the Giants benefit greatly in market perception because they didn’t play last week and therefore didn't have a chance to stink the joint out.

Even with just a week off, it's easy to forget just how bad the Giants were the last time they took the field. Do you remember that 34-27 loss to the Jets? Or the 19-point beatdown by the Cowboys? Or the four straight losses before that? That makes six losses in a row for the G-Men after they gave the key to the city of New York to rookie pivot Daniel Jones. The Giants have just two wins this season and they were both in September over the lowly Redskins and that miracle comeback by Jones in Tampa in Week 3. The Giants are always a threat to get blown out because they don't play defense and they (Jones specifically) can't stop turning the ball over. The Bears might be underachieving, but they are not the dregs like the Giants. While not many want to get behind the Giants these days, taking back significant points against the Bears makes them the more appealing proposition. You see, far less want to get behind the Bears spotting points, especially after that puke show against the Rams. The market jumps off, we jump on.

Carolina +10 -103 over NEW ORLEANS

1:00 PM EST. This is the first meeting between these divisional rivals. They traded road wins in 2018 with the Panthers winning 33-14 in New Orleans and the Saints winning 12-9 in Carolina. This year, the 8-2 Saints are 4-1 at home and the 5-5 Panthers are 3-2 on the road. The Panthers lost their last two games while the Saints rebounded from an ugly loss to Atlanta with a resonating easy win over the Buccaneers.

Honestly, we’re not crazy about this one. If we play the Saints, we’d be selling low on Carolina and that’s something we can’t recommend. Even though the points are inflated, it’s still hard to bet against the Saints in this spot. The Panthers are perhaps more contingent on one player than any other team in the league, or maybe NFL history. Christian McCaffrey is the "It Guy". He accounts for such a high percentage of the production that it boggles the mind that defenses cannot stop him when there is really nothing else to worry about. This is the first crack that the Saints get at stopping that which cannot be stopped but if Sean Peyton derives a plan that contains him, the Saints should win going away. Someone will stop him sooner or later, right??!!?! Again, it’s not a game we’re going to waste a lot of time on. We shouldn’t worry about the X’s and O’s and just take the inflated points, which is what we’re recommending. Are we betting it? No.

Jacksonville +3½ -102 over TENNESSEE

4:05 PM EST. The return of Nick Foles in last week's 33-13 loss in Indianapolis did nothing to start a fire under the stagnant Jaguars. Jacksonville has now lost two straight by double digits to division opposition. The Jags are now spotting a similar price to what they were spotting in Week 11 against the Colts, in a game against a Tennessee team they beat by double digits earlier this season. We don't love the Jags by any means, but backing a team coming off a lopsided loss is a situational play we can usually recommend or get behind with confidence.

The Titans are coming off their bye and at first glance, it appears they are on quite a roll after racking up three wins in their last four games, notching victories over the Chargers, Buccaneers and Chiefs. At the end of the day, wins might be all that matter but the way the Titans racked up those W's is not very impressive. First, all three came by a total of 10 points. In their Week 10 triumph over the Chiefs, the Titans were given a gift when Kansas City botched the snap on a field goal that would have made it a seven-point game. Instead, the Titans were given life with a short field and they won it with a 9-yard touchdown pass from Ryan Tannahill to Anthony Firkser. A closer look at the box score suggests the Titans were outplayed, as they also benefited from a defensive touchdown. Meanwhile, the Chiefs outgained them by 159 yards, owned the time of possession by nearly 16 minutes and had nine more first downs. The Bucs also outplayed Tennessee but lost the turnover battle 4-1. A team like the Titans has to get the majority of the breaks to win, which is why they are nearly impossible to spot points with. This is a Jags or pass situation.

Dallas +6½ -105 over NEW ENGLAND

4:25 PM EST. Week after week, we come here and tell you that the Patriots are just not that good and more often than not, they win and cover anyway. Last week, we were on the Eagles taking back five points and that should have been plenty after Philadelphia took an early 10-0 lead, but three Nick Folk field goals and a trick play touchdown pass from Julian Edelman to Philip Dorsett were enough for the Pats to cash in at 17-10 final. If you had told us that Tom Brady would be held to just 216 yards and no majors, we would have made that bet 100 times out of 100 and we will not let that sleepy victory by New England discourage us from continuing to attack this overvalued franchise. Brady went just 26-of-47 and he targeted 10 different receivers in that game, which suggests to us that the G.O.A.T. doesn't have anyone else he can trust outside of Edelman, who is not built to be the featured option. The Patriots vaunted defense leads the league in takeaways and therefore, New England has the best turnover margin per game at +1.8, which is near a full possession more than second-place Green Bay and Pittsburgh. Turnovers are not a skill and although there are no guarantees, those bounces usually even out over time. The Patriots' biggest strength is coach Bill Belichick's ability to stay calm and wait for his opponents to mess up, and more often than not, they do. If all things were equal, the Pats would be a middle of the pack side with an aging quarterback past his prime. Instead, they are the Super Bowl favorites.

The Cowboys were getting blasted in this market after losses to the Jets and Vikings in two of their four games prior to last Sunday's 35-27 win over the Lions and were not sure how much weight a victory over a three-win team is going to carry with a high profile matchup with the Patriots here in Week 12. After all, just as they did against the Giants, the Cowboys made mistakes early and had to come from behind to get the win. The case for the Cowboys lies in this price more than anything else, as +6½ is a "dog" number. Teams that are priced in this range are great bets and often win the game outright. The Cowboys are no different. Sure, the defense is banged up and Amari Cooper isn't 100%, but everyone in the market has that information and it's no doubt factored into this line. We'll leave a breakdown of the X's and O's to the idiots on FOX and we suspect none of them will pick the Cowboys to win this game. However, we know better. The Cowboys can win and that makes taking back these inflated points a must.

SAN FRANCISCO -3½ +106 over Green Bay

8:20 PM EST. The Packers sat idle last week and that allowed for some reflection on how incredible their 8-2 start has been. On the surface, it is one of the best records this franchise has had in years going into the break, but we've been following Green Bay closely this season and other than maybe Seattle, there hasn't been a team with a horseshoe further up their rear end than the Packers. Through 10 games, Green Bay has arguably been outplayed in all of them. The Packers have been outgained by the Bears, Vikings, Cowboys, Raiders, Chargers and Panthers, but lost just one of those games. They got all they could handle from the Broncos and Lions and they caught the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football without Patrick Mahomes and even then, Green Bay needed some late Aaron Rodgers magic to win that game. In Week 10 against the Panthers, the Packers would need a goal line stand at the end of the game to keep the Panthers from covering the spread and potentially tying the game with a two-point conversion had they scored. Green Bay is a popular public team and Aaron Rodgers is a player the roundtables all love to talk about, but the Packers are largely a running team now. In it's two losses to the Chargers and Eagles, respectively, the blueprint for smothering the Packers is on tape. Pound the ball and stop the run. It might be odd to suggest that it is Rodgers who you want to try and beat you, but if he's throwing a lot, the Packers are likely down. These trips to the Bay Area are also a homecoming of sorts for Rodgers, as he played his college ball at Cal Berkeley. Those outside distractions, especially on Sunday Night Football, can be a pain in the ass for any player, let alone one of the league's most high profile pivots. The Packers opened as a 3½-point pooch in this game and that "hook" on a key number like three has the market backing Green Bay here. With that in mind, we're going to be taking a long look at their opposition.

The 49ers might be 9-1, but they have been labeled as frauds by many pundits. It's easy to pick on the 'Niners. They've played a weak schedule and looked really bad the last two weeks. We backed San Francisco to cover last week and depending on when you got in, you either thanked your lucky stars as we did or you were ripping your hair out when the 49er defense picked up a failed lateral and took it to the house for a 10-point win. If you had San Fran in any teasers or money line parlays, you would have sold them for pennies on the dollar at more than one point in that game. That performance comes on the heels of a wild Monday Night Football loss to Seattle that was sandwiched with another contest against the Cardinals in prime time on Thursday Night Football in which the 49ers failed to cover as well. Although they played well enough to cash a ticket in that Week 9 contest, the Red Birds snuck in the back door with a late touchdown. When you don't cover, the market takes notice. In its lopsided home win over Carolina, the 49ers were a four-point favorite and they blew the doors of the Panthers 51-13, who are a .500 team and now they are spotting just a point less with the eight-win Packers. The market might not trust the 49ers to get the job done here, but we're willing to go back to their well one more time because the real numbers or the sustainable stats say it’s the Packers are not the Niners that are the fraud. We'll keep an eye on this line, as we expect it to be -3 with regular juice by kickoff and we expect this one to make our board too. 

-------------------------------------------------------

A cheaper and better alternative to CABLE

TV Programming

A GREAT OFFER FOR SPORTSWAGERS READERS:

We’re offering a better and cheaper alternative to cable TV. You will literally save thousands of dollars. If you’re sick of paying a fortune for programming that you don’t even want or need, this is for you. All pro sports -- EVERY GAME, tons of college football and basketball games and tons of regular programming (non-sports). Over 2500 channels all in HD for a mere $20 per month. You have to be nuts not to get it.

Get all the details here