Pinnacle -9½ -106 Bet365 -10 -10 SportsInteraction -10 -108 5DIMES -10 -110 888Sport -10 -105

Posted at 11:30 AM EST.  

SAN FRANCISCO -9½ -106 over Arizona

4:05 PM EST. Recent results to prime time games has been a focus of ours this season and with the 49ers coming off two straight single game showcases, there is a lot to dissect here. Firstly, let's go back to Monday night were the 49ers were involved in one of the crazier games we're likely to see this season. We preach about the volatility of "in-game variance" and why those plays cannot be predicted or considered when breaking down these games. If we know who was going to win the turnover battle or how many penalties each side was going to take, we'd have few losers. That's why in-game betting is so important.

If you were watching the 49ers and Seahawks on MNF, you know that San Francisco was dominating on both sides of the ball. Their defense had all the momentum after smothering Seattle for nearly two quarters, but a fumble by 'Niners QB Jimmy Garoppolo made the game 10-7 and subsequently gave all the momentum to the Seahawks headed to the half. We're not going to break down the second half, but it was sloppy, poorly coached and entertaining as hell. In the end, it was the 49ers that were left holding the bag with the loss after a missed kick in overtime that would have sent the home fans happy.

That was the 49ers first loss this season and that defeat came on the heels of a close Thursday night matchup with these lowly Cardinals in Week 9. That 28-25 final is so flattering for the Red Birds that it's not even funny. San Francisco won the time of possession by over nine minutes and had multiple double digit leads, including an 11-point advantage with just five minutes to go. That margin was enough to cover the 10 point spread, but the 'Niners backers were forced to rip up their tickets after an 88 yard catch and run from Kyler Murray to little used Andy Isabella. After failing to cover in that game and losing on MNF, the 8-1 'Niners stock is actually down this week. The only proof you need of that is that they are priced in a similar range here at home against Arizona just two and a half weeks later.

We covered the Cardinals sneaking in the back door in Week 9, but that result and the fact the 49ers are playing on a short week have the market taking a stand in this game. This line opened with the Red Birds taking back 13½, but that line has been pounded down to where you see it today. If you got in at that opening number, congratulations, you beat the closing line, but forgive us if we just can't get on board with that strategy. No offense, but if the market is heavily invested in one side over the other, we're looking to pivot off of that play. Arizona has covered in five of their last six games, including last Sunday in Tampa, which is another reason why it may have so much appeal here. When you cash tickets, the market takes notice, but so too do the oddsmakers. We trust the books got it right when they made the 49ers better than two touchdown chalk, as prior to the last two weeks, this team was running roughshod with double-digit wins over the Panthers, Rams, Browns, Bengals and Buccaneers. A return to form here is not out of the question and we expect this one to get U-G-L-Y.

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