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Posted Friday, October 11 at 12:30 PM EST

NFL 2019

Week 6

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criterion we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday.

We’re intent on providing our readers with the best possible selections and doing so on Sunday instead of Friday just makes more sense. We made that change last year and ended up going 81-57. Again, we’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST.

Week 6

Tampa Bay +2½ -105 over CAROLINA

9:30 AM EST. This is a London game that we’re not going to spend a lot of time on because of the intangibles that are impossible to measure. In other words, flip a coin to see which team doesn't travel well. It was the Bears who left their defense stateside last week. This is the first "second meeting" game of the year. The Buccaneers won 20-14 at the Panthers in Week 2 this season. The Panthers are 3-2 and won their last three games since that loss. The Bucs are 2-3 and just lost in New Orleans. This all boils down to Christian McCaffrey. The Panthers have won all three games since Cam Newton left and that will make for an interesting situation when he does return. There is no secret here. The Panthers are not only completely reliant on Christian McCaffrey to be the leading rusher and receiver and scorer, but the only team that shut him down was... these Buccaneers.

The Bucs lost in New Orleans but they were coming off a big win at the Rams. Last week’s loss was predictable based on that win. If this was a normal game in the USA and not at 9:30 in the morning, we would be taking the Bucs because the Panthers stock is just a little too high. Unless we see something that gives us a big edge, we refuse to play these London games so we’re going to have to pass. The recommendation is to play the Bucs if you must but always be aware that blowouts are common in these U.K. games.

MINNESOTA -3½ +107 over Philadelphia

1:00 PM EST. The 3-2 Eagles are 1-1 in road games and travel to face the 3-2 Vikings that are 2-0 at home. This is an interesting matchup since the Vikings strength (rushing) is the strength of the Eagles defense. This slightly favors the home team but either side could obviously win this. The Eagles are on a two-game winning streak and won their last road game in Green Bay. The Vikings finally discovered their passing offense but it took a trip to face the Giants to find it.

This might be the toughest game to pick a side on here in Week 6 and because of that, this battle between the Vikings and Eagles is unlikely to make our board. We doubt either side gained much standing in the market, although the Vikes’ win over the Giants probably carries more weight in the market than the Eagles drubbing of the Jets. We've been critical of Kirk Cousins and his reputation as the biggest no show in the game when there are stakes on the line, but does Philadelphia fit that bill? Maybe, but we're not so sure. If this game were in prime time or against an NFC North opponent, Cousins and company would be an auto fade. However, it appears the Vikings catch the Eagles in a nice lookahead spot, as Philly will head to Dallas for a high profile appearance on Sunday Night Football next week. Gun to our head, we lean to the Vikings, but unless we see some significant movement on this game Sunday morning, it's an easy one to pass on with many other tasty options on the menu to choose from.

N.Y. JETS +7 -107 over Dallas

1:00 PM EST. What case can be made here for the Jets? They've been waffled in three of their games this season, including last week's 31-6 no show in Philadelphia. To be fair, Gang Green was forced to throw third string quarterback Luke Falk into the fire after Sam Darnold was sidelined with mono and Trevor Siemian was knocked out of New York's 23-3 Monday Night Football loss to Cleveland. The Falk era is now over, at least for now, as Darnold has been cleared to play. Even with the return of their starting pivot, the Jets carry about as much market appeal as the Dolphins and Skins, which is why this line is so curious.

In a season where oddsmakers are hanging double digit spreads on bottom feeding teams like they are going out of style, this number stands out like a sore thumb. We often discuss on our podcast that the books are not in the habit of posting bad numbers and they must consider the many wagers available to the market, including money line parlays and teasers. Those exotic bets are going to be the focus here, as it's going to be very tempting to tease the Cowboys down to -1 or include them to "pump up" every money line parlay made on Sunday. If the line itself wasn't a big red flag, this is a tough sandwich spot for Dallas. It is coming off a high profile game against the Packers last Sunday that ran unopposed in most markets as Fox's America's Game of the Week. On deck, the 'Boys have a Sunday night showdown with the Eagles at home in Big D. We'll remind you that the last time the Cowboys were in a lookahead spot like this was Week 3 at home to the Dolphins with a Sunday night date with the Saints coming in Week 4. The Cowboys slept through the first half and if they were playing anyone but the Fish, they would’ve got caught but let’s put all that aside and get into public perception.

The Jets are 0-4. Like the Dolphins and ‘Skins, they’re winless. The Jets have lost their last three games by a combined score of 84-23 and 14 of those points against New England came when the Jets were down 31-0. Take away those garbage points and that combined score would be 84-9. Like the Dolphins and ‘Skins, the Jets are getting whacked week after week after week. Meanwhile the ‘Boys crushed its first three opponents (Giants, Redskins and Dolphins) before losing to the Saints and Packers the past two weeks. Do you see a pattern here because we sure do. Dallas blows out weak teams and loses to quality ones although last week’s loss to Green Bay was hugely misleading. Dallas has a top-ranked offense and after two straight losses, it is not in a position to look ahead or take anyone lightly. One can draw one of two conclusions here, this is either the worst number oddsmakers have posted this season or the Cowboys are the sucker bet of the day and because we’re not sure, we’re going to have to see where this number goes before committing to anything. If we’re in the prediction business, it’s Dallas by 28 but we’re not so let’s wait until Sunday to make any decisions.

Washington -3½ -110 over MIAMI

1:00 PM EST. You might trust that there is a case to be made for these Dolphins to get off the bench and get a win here in Week 6, but it's important to remember that those talking points are just filler. Here's what we know, more than anything, Miami’s standing in the market benefited significantly by them not playing football last week. By comparison, the Redskins circus has been front and center for three weeks now. Miami just hasn't been bad, it's been non-competitive. If you want to give the Dolphins credit for the first half they played against a sleepy Cowboys team in Week 3, you can have it, but after Dallas woke up, that final was 31-6. When you add their other losses to the résumé (59-10 Ravens, 43-0 Patriots, 30-10 Chargers), we would argue that the winless Redskins are actually short priced here as road chalk.

We get it. It's going to be really, really hard to spot a price with the Redskins on the road in their current state, but that's the point. After another embarrassing performance last Sunday in a 33-7 home loss to the Patriots, now former head coach Jay Gruden was fired after an 0-5 start and after four losing seasons over the last five years. It's hard to blame Gruden, as this team is a total mess from the top down, but despite owner Dan Snyder, there is actually some talent on this team. It was just one year ago the Redskins started hot out of the gate until a gruesome injury to starting quarterback Alex Smith totally derailed their season. It's easy to lump the 'Skins into the same loser pool as the Dolphins or Jets, but this team actually has some players, especially on defense. In fact, if you're looking for a defense to play in your fantasy league, you could do worse than Washington this weekend. On the offensive end, the 'Skins new interim coach Bill Callahan is going back to Case Keenum at quarterback, which should bring some stability. Keenum was really good in Week 1 throwing for 380 yards and three touchdowns against the Eagles and he went for over 200 yards and two touchdowns against the Cowboys in Week 2. He also did not throw an interception in either of those contests. It wasn't until Washington's 31-15 thumping by the Bears on Monday Night Football did this train go entirely off the tracks. We're going to trust the oddsmakers on this one, as this number suggests that Washington might be one of the better bets of the week. 

JACKSONVILLE -1½ -110 over New Orleans

1:00 PM EST. If you squint real hard, you could almost mistake Teddy Bridgewater for Drew Brees in the Saints 31-24 win over Tampa Bay. Ol' Wobbly Balls went for 314 yards and four touchdowns, the most by any quarterback on the day, and made a Buccaneers defense that had been getting some headlines to look like the porous unit of years past. Bridgewaters is now 3-0 this season as the starter with the Saints racking up wins against the Seahawks, Cowboys and Bucs and his teams have posted more than 30 points twice over that time. The Saints stock likely isn't quite where it was before Brees went down, but it's definitely on the uptick. New Orleans also brings years of pedigree to the market, which is why they are going to look like an appealing play here as a pooch.

Unlike the Saints, the Jaguars have very little market presence. The Gardner Minshew show has been fun to watch, but in the standings,  Jacksonville is just 2-3 and they failed to cover as a popular pick on the road in Carolina last Sunday. Even at a price like this, the Jags are not the kind of team the market is comfortable spotting points with. However, the Jags are short priced here based on last week's results. While it's the Saints offense getting the headlines after Week 5, it is the Jags who feature the AFC's leading rusher (Leonard Fournette) and receiver (DJ Chark). Both were highly touted rookies that failed to live up to expectations for one reason or another, but are quietly living up to potential here in 2019. They and the Jags are flying under the radar, but serve up tremendous value as a short priced home favorite against a New Orleans’ bunch that is absolutely ripe to lay an egg.

KANSAS CITY -4 -110 over Houston

1:00 PM EST. When you put up over 50 points, it resonates in the market. Depending on where you shop, this line opened from as high as -8½ (William Hill) to -6½ (Pinnacle) and everything in between (7½ at Bet365), but you can kiss those numbers goodbye, as this market has taken a stand, which is why this number has now settled where it is. If you beat the closing line, congratulations, but we wouldn't be feeling too confident about that bet. The prudent play would be to try for a middle, as we suspect that the books are going to need the Chiefs to return to form. We're not going to break down the X's and O's, but it's worth noting that the Texans sport one of the worst offensive lines in football and Deshaun Watson has been on the run for his life all season. Also of concern was the fact that the Texans could not stop the visiting Falcons on Sunday. That 53-32 final flattered the home side, as Houston racked up a pair of touchdowns in the final two minutes, including a 79-yard interception return for a major. With three minutes to go, the Dirty Birds were stuck just eight points and had it at a one score game plenty of other times throughout. The Texans defense is horrible.

This is a fickle market and if Twitter and the talking heads are to be believed, the Chiefs were exposed in front of the football world last Sunday night. As -10½ point home favorites, Kansas City slogged through and ugly 19-13 loss to the Colts in a game that had the highest posted total on the board in Week 5. If you watched the broadcast, all you heard about was how banged up the Colts were, especially in the secondary. We are not in the habit of laying the big lumber in a prime time game like we did last week, but when the late money came in on the Colts, we were feeling great about that bet. Credit to Indianapolis’ defense for shutting down the high powered K.C. offense. Lost in the high profile defeat was the quality play of a Chiefs defense that shut down Jacoby Brissett and the passing game. If you had told us the Colts would be limited to one touchdown and just 19 points in a game with the Chiefs that had a total of 55½, we would make that bet every time. Now, Kansas City goes from spotting double digits to this much more manageable number. What would this line have been if K.C blew out Indy or if this game was played last week? The Texans likely would have been much closer to where the Colts closed than they are to this seemingly short price. Is the blueprint on how to beat the Chiefs now out there? Maybe, but these Texans might not have the horses to put that plan in motion.

Cincinnati +11½ -109 over BALTIMORE

1:00 PM EST. The Ravens are 3-2, but they get the publicity of a club much higher in stature. Maybe it's the huge fantasy numbers posted by Lamar Jackson, regardless, Baltimore's price is inflated here after a road win in Pittsburgh that was much closer than it probably should have been after the Steelers were forced to throw third string quarterback Devlin Hodges into the fire. We won't waste too much more time breaking this game down because there are going to be weeks to fade Baltimore, we're just not sure if Cincinnati has what it takes to keep this one inside the number.

This game is not likely to make our board, but if you are so inclined, we suspect it is the 0-5 Bengals that are undervalued. The problem is, does that really matter if they lose by two touchdowns, which is totally on the table? It is very had to put your hard earned dollars behind a team like Cincinnati because if they get blown out of the water, you feel like an idiot. We're not different. We don't want to throw away units on a team like the Bengals, either. If we bet a pooch, regardless of price, we usually think they have a chance to win. Do we think we the Bengals can win here? Man, that’s a tough thing to believe but we know for sure that you’d be spotting inflated points with the Ravens. That cannot be recommended.

CLEVELAND +105 over Seattle

1:00 PM EST. Yes, Seattle is 4-1, but other than maybe the Packers, there hasn't been a luckier team in the NFL. The Seachickens were able to squeak by the Rams after L.A. missed a potential game winning field goal. That was Seattle's second one point victory of the season with the first coming in Week 1 against the still winless Bengals. The rest of Seattle's resume is not impressive either, as its other two wins came against one win Arizona (27-10) and the Roethlisberger-less Steelers (28-26). That's one convincing victory out of four and Seattle's lone defeat came to the Saints sans Brees (33-27). The reality is that the Seahawks are a one-man show and his name is Russell Wilson. Wilson is capable of winning games on his own and has done it again and again this season. He's putting up big numbers and is being discussed by the pundits as the best pivot in the game, but he can't keep doing it by himself. 

This week on our podcast, we talked about the opening line of this game, which had been set by Bet 365 with the Browns at -2½ point home favorites. A book like Pinnacle would never open themselves up to the liability that can come with posting a line on a game with one of the teams playing on Monday Night Football, but Bet365, they don't care. The point is, there is often an overreaction by the market to these prime time games and if the Browns had a poor showing, there was a great chance for the sportsbook to get middled. Well, the Brownies got whacked and now they are a home pooch, as that number swung three points in the other direction. After the dust settled on that 28-3 beatdown in San Francisco, the barbs have been tossed in the direction of Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield, who went from preseason darling to total bust in just five weeks.

To recap: The 4-1 Seahawks are 2-0 on the road. The 2-3 Browns are 0-2 at home and coming off an absolute horrendous showing on Monday night. The Browns fell flat on their faces and nothing worked. If it came close to working, someone would lose the ball. Just when the Browns appeared to have turned the corner with their Week 4 win over the Ravens, it all came undone. The miscues and mistakes were constant and the market has reacted. Never put too much emphasis on one game. It was likely a bit of a hangover from Week 4 and it says here that Week 6 will be different. You bet Cleveland last week and cannot bet them this week? We get it but don’t get caught zig-zagging. Either lay off the game or bet the correct side. That would be the Brownies.

L.A. RAMS -3½ +105 over San Francisco

4:05 PM EST. The 49ers are 4-0 and other than maybe the Patriots, they are the hottest team in football. The market loves a winner and San Francisco's 31-3 romp over the Browns on Monday night was the exclamation point on its undefeated start to the season. It was hard not to be impressed with the ease in which San Francisco blew away the Browns beginning with the first offensive play of the game, which resulted in an 89-yard TD run.

The dominant Rams of 2018 appear to be in the rear view mirror after Los Angeles' 3-2 start to the season. Those two defeats have come in the last two weeks to the Buccaneers and Seahawks, respectively. We are in the business of buying low and for the first time in almost two years, that applies to the Rams. Depending on where you wager, L.A. was the preseason favorite to win the Super Bowl in the NFC and they were the betting chalk to win the NFC West as well. Now they trail the Saints (8-1), Packers (12-1) and Eagles (21-1) at most books. Even though the Rams are a game and a half back of the 49ers, they are still the favorites in their division at +140. If you like the Rams to win this week, and we do, backing them to take the NFC West title is a great value play, as they were -180 prior to the season starting. For some perspective, the 49ers were +550 and are now just +162. Those odds highlight even further the buy low, sell high nature of this contest. The 49ers beat three teams with losing records in the AFC North, and opened the year with a surprise win over the 2-3 Buccaneers. They have yet to play any team with a winning record. The 49ers defense is very effective, at least against bad teams but that all changes here. Buy now on the Rams before the bandwagon leaves without you. This is truly a deflated price and we’re on it.

ARIZONA +2½ -110 over Atlanta

4:05 PM EST. We doubt the one win Cardinals gained much credibility in this market after beating the still winless Bengals 26-23 last Sunday, but that works in our favor here, as we get them underpriced at home. We're not going to spend a lot  of time pumping up the Cards because to be honest, there is not a lot to like. Their coach is an idiot, the general manager is a drunk and their quarterback is much better on your fantasy football team than he is in real life. You know what? None of that matters and two thirds of those statements are just opinion. The point is, it doesn't really matter what we think.

This line opened with the Redbirds taking back +2½, which is a dog number. Backing the Falcons to win by just a field goal is going to be an appealing play for many in this market. Atlanta, for many reasons, still has some market credibility. Now, readers of this space know that we've been all over the Falcons since the start of the season and pegged them to go under their season win total, but what the market still sees is a team that can score points in bunches. It doesn't matter if much of that offense is coming in garbage time. At 1-4, we don't think the Falcons should be favored on the road against anybody and that includes these Red Birds. This will also be the first game back in Arizona since the death of Cardinals owner Bill Bidwell, which should provide a little extra motivation for the home side, but this short price suggests the Red Birds won't need it.

Tennessee +120 over DENVER

4:25 PM EST. Looking at week-to-week over and underreactions is a big part of our criteria when analyzing NFL games and we believe we've found the perfect storm here. On one side you have the Broncos, who finally got off the schneid with a 20-13 win over the Chargers last Sunday. That W was a long time coming for a Denver side that had had some tough luck losses to the Raiders, Bears, Packers and Jaguars. Two of those defeats (Bears, Jags) came by less than a field goal while the others (Raiders and Packers) were on the road by single digits. You are going to hear this week that the Broncos could be 5-0, 4-1, or at least 3-2 if they would have gotten the bounces and while that is mostly true, this is the wrong week to make that point. Recent results often dictate market perception and we suspect the Broncos are going to look like a horse worth riding here in Week 6, but there is a good chance 1-4 Denver is actually overvalued in this spot at home against a Titans team whose stock seemingly peaked in Week 1.

The Titans' 43-13 romp of the Browns in Cleveland in Week feels like it was played a year ago rather than a little over a month ago. Since that opening afternoon, Tennessee is just 1-3 with that lone victory coming over the Falcons, who are having one of their worst seasons in recent memory. It's easy to pick on the Titans after an ugly 14-7 home loss to Buffalo last Sunday, but if Denver is being given credit for its close defeats, the same could be done for the Flaming Thumb Tacks. Tennessee's 19-17 Week 2 loss at Indy doesn't look so back after the Colts took out the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. Their second single digit defeat came to a Buffalo side that has just one defeat in 2019 and it was to the Patriots in a game the Bills should have won outright. So just like the Broncs, the Titans could be 4-1 or 3-2, but they aren't. They are 2-3, they’re under the radar on the road and they’re the better team taking back a price.

Pittsburgh +6½ -105 over L.A. CHARGERS

8:20 PM EST. We want to introduce you to Ricky Tran, a scumbug tout that has plenty to say about this game. His “Free Play” of the week ticks all the boxes of how not to handicap a game.

He doesn’t think there is any reason to “overthink this one” because Pittsburgh’s season is over while the Chargers, at just a game ahead of Pittsburgh, is desperate. Ricky Tran also wonders how healthy Mason Rudolph will be should he happen to play. He finally goes on to say that it is a “must win” game for the Chargers.

If every “must win” team won, nobody would miss the playoffs. The must win angle is for scumbug touts that are grasping at reasons to play a game. Ricky Tran sees Pittsburgh without its QB’s and figures that he has an edge over the bookmakers. Ricky Tran doesn’t overthink it because he doesn’t think at all. This is a guy that has 10 star plays on every prime time game and that charges $60.00 for a guaranteed winner with a reduced rate of $36 for non-guaranteed winner on the same game. Are the picks different? 

Ricky Tran does not post his long term records; instead he tries to get players in the door with his most recent “FREE PICK” while failing to mention he has never won over a full season. We mention this because the Chargers to cover against Pittsburgh was the “easy game” that this cockroach targeted to get people in the door. His FREE PICK was released on Monday and the Steelers looked like the perfect target.

Of course this doesn’t mean the Steelers will cover but it’s an example of why you should never pay for picks and although we singled out Ricky Tran, we could’ve singled out 100’s of others.

The entire universe knows that Pittsburgh is without a QB and Ricky Tran represents a large portion of the betting public that approaches games in the wrong way. We know 100% that we are getting inflated points to back the Steelers here. Furthermore, is it not possible that Devlin Hodges is very capable? Hodges completed 7-of-9 passes for 68 yards in relief last week. Those were the first NFL passes that the first-year undrafted quarterback has thrown. Hodges was a four year starter at quarterback for Samford. He was named the Southern Conference Offensive Player of the Year three times, and he was the recipient of the 2018 Walter Payton Award during his senior year in which he set the NCAA FCS career record for passing yards with 14,584. Hodges’ mark broke the previous record that was set by former Alcorn State quarterback Steve McNair in 1994. Expect the Steelers to be extra motivated here because everyone has written them off.

Both these teams are a disappointment this year though the Steelers have far better excuses. The Chargers welcomed back Melvin Gordon last week and then it all fell apart to an 0-4 team that prevented the Chargers from scoring any offensive touchdowns. Do you really want to trust the Chargers spotting significant points to anyone? The Chargers looked to be in trouble versus Miami for f**k sakes.

Give us inflated points with a QB that probably is not a downgrade from Mason Rudolph. Give us inflated points with a team that has an “Us versus the World” mentality. Give us inflated points with a team that has played Seattle, San Francisco, Baltimore and New England and lost by four points or less to all of them but the Patriots in Week Zero. When the Steelers took a step down in class and played Cincinnati, they blew the Bengals away. Give us inflated points with a QB that could be hard to prepare for and that might actually be better than Mason Rudolph.

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