Arizona @ CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI -3 -109 over Arizona

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CINCINNATI -3 -109 over Arizona

1:00 PM EST. While both of these teams were battered, bruised and left licking their wounds after a rough Week 4,  it was the Bengals that melted down so spectacularly in front of a national audience. We are in the business of targeting and exploiting over and under-reactions, which is why this game is so interesting. Even before a ball was snapped on Monday Night Football, oddsmakers posted a number on this Bengals/Cardinals matchup. We discussed how unusual that was on our podcast and what would happen to that line if Cinci came out with a stinker. The market then saw Cincinnati do what it always seems to do in a prime time position and that was pulling a no show. As we suggested, the Bengals went from a 4½-point favorite to spotting a field goal with juice by Tuesday morning after Monday’s putrid showing.

The Bengals spirited effort in a one-point Week 1 loss up in Seattle seems so long ago after getting whacked 41-17 by the 49ers, beat by the Bills 21-17 and finally suffering last Monday's 27-3 debacle in the Steel City, but through one month of the season, that's a pretty solid résumé of losses to some "good" teams. Seattle is 3-1. The Niners are 3-0 and Buffalo is 3-1. Throw in the Steelers at 1-3 and the combined record of the Bengals opposition is still an impressive 10-5. Cincinnati takes a big step down in competition here, which should serve it well, as should this game being played out of the limelight. When the stakes are the lowest, Andy Dalton and his Bengals are at their best.

The Cardinals are winless as well, but their most recent defeat was both expected and mostly hidden in the sea on Sunday football action. We bet the Redbirds in that game and have had action on them in past weeks as well, so we've watched more Cardinals football than most folks would force upon themselves. We're here to tell you that you can add Kliff Kingsbury to the idiots coaching list. It's not that we didn't already know this, as Klingsbury was a moron at the college level as well, but just a month in, his Cardinals are a tough bet. Even if the players on the field all perform to the best of their abilities, their coach has no idea what's going on. He doesn't care about defense, making adjustments or anything else that doesn't involve going for it all downfield. Defensively, the Cards are giving up 271 pass yards a game with 10 majors scored against them, which is a solid matchup for a Bengals side that sports the third ranked pass offense in the league. To combat their struggles in the secondary, the Cardinals cut veteran safety D.J. Swearinger, who was supposed to be a defensive leader this season. His replacement will be rookie Deionte Thompson. How that move will sit with that unit should be interesting, but we're not sure throwing a rookie right into the fire is the best way to combat that weakness. How’s this for a tidbit: The Red Birds have not played with a lead yet in 2019. The market perception is that both of these teams are bottom feeders, but it is the Cardinals that are getting a long look here by process of elimination, meaning that the Bengals looked so bad on Monday night that the market can’t wait to bet against them taking back points. We on the other hand are thrilled to get the short priced Bengals in a prime bounce-back spot. 

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Our Pick

CINCINNATI -3 -109 (Risking 2.18 units - To Win: 2.00)