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WASHINGTON +15½ over New England

1:00 PM EST. What happens when the market gets burned once? They usually shrug it off and continue. What happens when the market gets burned twice in the same manner? They don’t shrug it off and vow to never get burned in that same manner again. This is truly a case of “fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me”.

It was three weeks ago that the Patriots were a 18-point road favorite in Miami. At that time, it was almost unheard of to see an NFL team favored in that range on the road. The Pats would then go out and destroy the Fish, 43-0 and cover easily. Last week, the Chargers, a team with far less market credibility than New England, were also a big road favorite in Miami (-15) and like New England, the Bolts rolled over the Dolphins to make those two huge road favorites 2-0 against the spread. Last week’s Bolts cover was especially damaging to the market, as that line dropped all week, which indicates a boatload of money was pouring in on the Dolphins. Two big road favorites and two easy covers means not many are going anywhere near the Redskins this week. That’s our cue to move in.

Washington isn’t Miami. Washington was a 5-point home pooch to the Bears two weeks ago and now they’re +15½ against the Pats, also at home? Forget the results because the Redskins have been both sloppy and unlucky and that combination will cause any team to get whacked.

Our goal is to identify flaws in the market and not worry about the X’s and O’s. Washington actually outgained Chicago two weeks ago by 58 yards and while one cannot put a lot of emphasis on that because they were down 28 points at the half and gained garbage yards afterward, the ‘Skins still turned the ball over 5 times and lost by just 16. We cannot overstate how many people were on the Dolphins last week taking back a better than two TD number against the Chargers and lost. This is now the third time in the last four weeks that a road team is favored by more than two converted TD’s with the market getting burned the first two times. Washington’s loss last week to the Giants and its loss two weeks ago to Chicago in prime time has this market evaluating the Skins and putting them in the same price range as the Dolphins. You did not see us on Miami v New England or Miami v the Chargers because it was not a market overreaction. In fact, we took the Bolts last week but now it’s time to take advantage of a truly inflated underdog that nobody wants a part of.

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