Pinnacle -4½ +102 B365 -4½ +105 SportsInteraction -4½ +105 5DIMES -4½ +105 888Sport N/A

DALLAS -4½ +105 over Green Bay

4:25 PM EST. We're selling points here and taking it up to -4½ plus a little vig. You can choose whether you want to do that or not.

We've read that the Cowboys were exposed as frauds after a no show on Sunday Night Football in New Orleans, but we're not ready to sell this team off quite yet. We believe that teams coming off less than stellar primetime performances are often undervalued the next time out and while both the 'Boys and the Packers were downed in front of the football world, that Sunday nighter is much fresher in the minds of the market. That Dallas couldn't muster much against a Saints team that was missing Drew Brees also looks much worse on paper than the Packers' failure against the Eagles.

Prior to last Thursday night, the Packers had been the best bet in the NFL with a 3-0 record in the standings and against the spread and if not for some suspect play calling from first year head coach Matt LaFleur near the goal line, the Packers would likely be 4-0 against the spread. However, lost in all tomfoolery was the fact that it was actually the Packers who were exposed under the bright lights. Green Bay's suspect run defense was a fatal flaw. The Packers were gashed for 176 yards on the ground and there was nothing they could do about it. In Week 3 against the still winless Broncos, the Pack was gutted for 149 rush yards and in Week 2 against the Vikings, they were trampled for 198. That's three straight games of the Green Bay defense getting abused and those hits add up. When you can't stop the run, you can't get off the field, which makes for a long day at the office. The Packers are going to have some appeal here as a pooch taking back 3½ points, but we'll stress again that this is a "favorite" number when it's posted by the books. It encourages the market to bet the pooch because of the "hook" on a key number like three. In reality, favorites in this range cash at a high clip and the half point rarely comes into play. Also working against the Packers in this game is the fact they'll be back in the spotlight in Week 6 with a home date on Monday Night Football against the Lions. So far this season, many teams have dropped the ball with a high profile primetime game on the horizon. Look no further than the Rams last Sunday, who fell to Tampa with a TNF matchup in Seattle on deck. Even though they are playing America's team, this is the perfect sandwich spot between two nationally televised primetime games to catch the Packers napping. It also doesn’t hurt that Zeke is up next to gash this Pack run defense. 

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