Indianapolis @ KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY -10½ -109 over Indianapolis

Pinnacle -10½ -109 B365 -10½ -110 SportsInteraction -10½ -110 5DIMES -10½ -110 888Sport -10½ -110

KANSAS CITY -10½ over Indianapolis

8:20 PM EST. The 4-0 Chiefs share the AFC lead with the Patriots and their meeting seems fated. The 2-2 Colts were just upset by the visiting Raiders and now travel to face the top offense in the NFL. This game seemed much tastier when the schedule makers were thinking Mahomes vs. Luck and if it means anything, the Chiefs won 31-13 when the Colts visited in the Divisional Round of the 2018 playoffs. It was a cold and windy day. This day will not be cold and windy. In fact, it looks like it’s going to be a perfect day for football. The forecast is 66° or 18C with a light breeze of 8 MPH.

Stock up, stock down is a strategy we employ often but it’s not the only criteria we use. There are several protocols we go through before zeroing in on a choice. We would’ve preferred if the Colts blew out the Raiders last week because we’d probably be spotting a point less here but we do not care.

We have access to the data just like everyone else and the Chiefs were the second most wagered on team last week as a 6½-point choice in Detroit. If you teased the Chiefs, you escaped by the hairs on your chinny-chin-chin but if you spotted the points, there was no escape. There were also two 14-point swings in that contest that both went the Chiefs way, otherwise Detroit would’ve won comfortably. The point is that some may be reluctant to spot -10½ or -11 with the Chiefs after spotting -6½ last week and ripping up their tickets but not us. We’re thrilled to be spotting these points.

The Lions held Patrick Mahomes to no touchdowns for a first this season and he only threw for 315 yards. That was his first time for 2019 when he failed to produce at least 370 passing yards and three touchdowns. There’s not a lot of tears about it but make no mistake that Mahomes had an off week by his standards. You really think he’s going to be off his game two weeks in a row in a prime time spot? Perhaps the Chiefs were looking ahead to this game? Perhaps they didn’t take the NFC Lions seriously. This week, the Chiefs will take this game very seriously.

As for the Colts, well, unlike the Chiefs, their QB is not used to being featured in a prime time game. We really have to question if this moment is going to unnerve Jacoby Brissett or if it’s just a little too big for him. And even if it’s not, the Colts may hang with or go punch for punch early on but expect Kansas City to pull away because they’re not going to be stopped here. Also note that Pinnacle had K.C. at -11 when almost every other joint had them at 10½ during the week. That’s another sign we pay attention to. 

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Our Pick

KANSAS CITY -10½ -109 (Risking 2.18 units - To Win: 2.00)