Early leans & analysis
Early leans & analysis

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle BET 365 SportsInteraction 5DIMES 888Sport  

Posted Friday, October 4 at 2:15 PM EST

NFL 2019

Week 5

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criterion we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday.

We’re intent on providing our readers with the best possible selections and doing so on Sunday instead of Friday just makes more sense. We made that change last year and ended up going 81-57. Again, we’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST.

Week 5

CHICAGO -6½ -108 over Oakland

Although we still like Chicago, it matters not what we like and thus, we came off this game from making it official. The market has been hammering the Bears and that's not just in Canada and the U.S. That includes and entire country too. Be careful about spotting extra points with the Bears.

1:00 PM EST. London, England. In this week’s podcast, we mentioned that we don’t like to get involved with games in London because of all the blowouts that have occurred over the years. Typically speaking, one team just never shows up but doesn’t that provide us with a possible massive edge if we can figure out which team is more likely to show up prepared and ready to go? Of course it does so let’s try that angle and see where it leads.

One team is coached by Jon Gruden, the enthusiastic, ex-coach, turned-Monday Night broadcaster turned coach again, with the menacing stare, that hasn’t exactly controlled his players. For instance, Antonio Brown came in as a loose cannon and left a looser cannon that didn’t last eight days at Camp Belichick. Vontaze Burfict was next, as he’s been suspended for the remainder of the season as the result of not just one hit but a series of violent hits that he’s been warned about over and over again. That wouldn’t happen at Camp Belichick either because it’s his rules or the highway. Anyway, the point is that it’s not just those two players that Camp Gruden couldn’t keep under wraps. The entire preseason was one filled with dysfunction and now this group of misfits and malcontents are flying to another country, far away from their wives, girlfriends and constant scrutiny of the NFL media. It’s also worth noting that the Raiders played in Indianapolis last week and emerged victorious because the Colts pulled a no-show, just as we suggested they might. Oakland’s stock is higher this week than it would’ve been if, let’s say they lost to the Colts by double digits. Oakland is weak team that is a satisfying 2-2.

By contrast, the Bears are coached by no-nonsense boss, Matt Nagy. Nagy comes from the Andy Reid tree. He became an assistant coach with the Eagles in 2009, spending five seasons in various offensive positions under Reid. In 2013, when Reid joined the Chiefs, Nagy followed him to become the quarterbacks coach, a role he served until he was promoted to offensive coordinator in 2016. Nagy was named the Bears' head coach in 2018, leading the team to their first NFC North championship and playoff appearance since 2010 in his first year. The Bears are disciplined and they adhere to Nagy’s strict rules.

Next up is the fact that the Bears lost their starting QB last week. What that means is Chase Daniel will play and that has the Bears undervalued. Frankly, Daniel might be better. Chase Daniel stepped in during Week 4 and completed 22 of 30 passes for 195 yards and one TD in the win over the Vikings. He had no turnovers. The Raiders are bottom-five in most passing categories, so the timing is good. There is a reason that Chase Daniel is one of, if not the highest paid backup QB in the game. Furthermore, what happens when a key player goes down is that the team rallies hard and prepares harder in support of the guy that is being asked to step in. We’ve seen it with many teams this year, including Carolina, Pittsburgh, New Orleans and Jacksonville to name a few.

In summarizing, we’re looking to get an edge and figure out which team is more likely to be prepared and or focused/ as the two teams travel overseas. By a wide margin, we’re suggesting that the Bears will be that squad. Although this game is on a neutral field, it is worth noting that Oakland was getting +6½ at Indy last Sunday and now they’re getting less against the Bears? Chicago offers up all the value here.

N.Y. Jets +14 -109 over PHILADELPHIA

1:00 PM EST. We're not going to spend a lot of time on this game as we suspect there is very little we could say that would entice anyone to back the Jets here and we don't blame them. However, we don't care who's wearing what shade of green, as we're in the "value" business. The last time anyone saw New York's AFC side, it was getting shellacked on Monday Night Football by the Browns. The Jets were on a much needed bye in Week 4 after starting the season 0-3 and they'll likely be without starting quarterback Sam Darnold, who has mono. Darnold did return to practice this week, which should give his team some kind of boost but he has not been cleared for contact, although, Jets coach Adam Gase did not rule out his playing against the Eagles. Trust us, Luke Falk is getting the start and this line says so.

The Eagles were left for dead after a disastrous Sunday night in Atlanta in Week 3 but rebounded with a big primetime win in Green Bay. The market watched the Eagles run roughshod on the Pack and we suspect their stock is on the rise as well. With "bad" teams like the Dolphins, Redskins and the Jets getting blown out of the water every week, oddsmakers have had to inflate their lines. They must also protect against parlays and teasers. We suspect that the Eagles will be in nearly every 7-point teaser played this weekend. Although we don't see it often, a 13½ line is just like a 6½ or a 2½, it's a dog number, as the market is able to cash a ticket without crossing a "key" number like 3, 7, 10 or 14. We doubt the market will blink at this number, which means the books will need the Jets to cover. Guess which side we'd rather be on?

Minnesota -5½ -104 over N.Y. GIANTS

1:00 PM EST. ♪Kirk Cousins is sorry. So sorry that he was such a fool. He did not know that football could be so cruel. Oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, yes. He told us that mistakes are part of being young, but that doesn't right the wrong that has been done. Kirk's sorry. So sorry. Adam, please accept his apology. But your QB is blind. Too blind to see you♪

The Cousins era in Minnesota couldn’t get sadder if Brenda Lee sung it herself. On his weekly radio show, Cousins apologized to Adam Theilen because, "There's too many opportunities where we could have hit him on Sunday”. Cousins' use of the collective "we" is cute because we're pretty sure it is Cousins that was paid $84-million in guaranteed money to "hit" Theilen downfield. Cousins has become a punching bag and a punch line around this league after failing to show up when it matters most and we suspect that is a big reason why he and the Vikings are going to be a tough bet in Week 5. Who wants to spot points with a team that couldn't put up a touchdown until the 2:58 mark of the fourth quarter last Sunday against the Bears. The Vikes were heavily bet in that game and that line dropped to nearly a pick 'em after the Bears opened at a field goal favorite. We are always mindful of which teams the market will "zig-zag" on week-to-week and Minnesota fits the bill.

The Giants are 2-0 under rookie quarterback Daniel Jones, who might have the best two game start in the team's history. "Danny Dimes" is the first Giants pivot to win his first two starts since Danny Kanell in 1997. Jones is the first rookie to do it for the franchise since Phil Simms in 1979. To give some perspective about how significant that feat is league wide, since the merger in 1970, only 12 quarterbacks selected in the first two rounds have won their first two starts in their rookie year. It all sounds impressive to be sure, but that first victory, a comeback win in Tampa, was a gift from the Buccaneers kicking game, as it missed three kicks for a total of five points including a "chip shot" for the game winner. Last week, Jones and company easily disposed of the Redskins 24-3, but forgive us for putting little stock in a win over a team that looks like it's going to give the Dolphins a run for the most embarrassing club in the NFL. They say if you can make it in New York, you can make it anywhere and because of the bright spotlight, Jones is getting far more press than most would in his position. His stock and therefore the Giants stock is inflated here in Week 5. We also have a huge potential lookahead spot, as the Giants will head to Foxboro and a date with the Patriots next Thursday night. We've been targeting teams with upcoming prime time games, as they have been an advantageous position so far this season. The Giants are no different. This is a prime spot for the Vikings to bounce back and expose the G-Men for being the below average team they’re supposed to be, especially with their star running back on the rack.

Buffalo +3 +109 TENNESSEE

1:00 PM EST. QB Josh Allen (concussion) got on the practice field all week on either a limited or full basis and is now expected to play. With a bye next week, the Bills have chosen to start Allen so that suggests that he’s very ready to go. The Bills defense held the Pats to only 16 points and that should count as a half-win since the World Champs were rolling up at least 30 in every other game. The Bills also hope to return Devin Singletary this week to boost the rushing offense. 

Nothing like facing one of the worst defenses to make everything seem right (for one week). The Titans handled the Falcons without too much trouble and surprisingly, while the wideouts came to life, Delanie Walker disappeared. It is usually the reverse. The offense has to face the defenses of BUF, @DEN, LAC, TB, and @CAR. That won't help the passing improvement to stick. The Titans return LT Taylor Lewan for his suspension, and that should be a major benefit. Marcus Mariota was sacked up to nine times in a game and better defenses are stacking up to face him. Buffalo is one of those better defenses and they’re legit.  

Tennessee has been outgained in three of its four games. See that 43-13 victory over Cleveland? They were outgained. See last week’s 14 point win in Atlanta? Tennessee was outgained by 57 yards and only have two wins because of the other teams mistakes.   

The Bills have outgained all four of its opponents this year, including the Patriots last week by 150 yards. New England played practically the entire game in its own end and it’s actually a miracle that they won. It’s not the first time the Patriots got some bounces and calls by the Locker Room employees. Additionally, the Bills have the Dolphins on deck next week and so one has to figure that they’ll be very focused here with the prospect of being 5-1 should they get by Tennessee and then dispose of the Fish next week. Market perception of the Bills might be that they're the superior team taking back points and that's actually true. There are times when the better team, that is desperately hungry, is the right play and Buffalo is turning out to be the early feel-good story of the season and we don't envision that ending here.  

L.A. CHARGERS -5½ -110 over Denver

Note: We switched gears here and are now recommending the Chargers, as the late market has been pounding the Bromcs all morning and to us, that's one of the biggest red flags there can be.

4:05 PM EST. Is this rock bottom for the Broncos? At 0-4, it appears it's time to put a wrap on 2019 and look to 2020, but these players have a ton of pride and unlike the Dolphins, the Broncs haven't been uncompetitive. Denver could just as easily be 3-1 as it is 0-4 after playing the Bears, Packers and Jaguars tough. A phantom penalty that led to Chicago's game-winning field goal in Week 2 got the ball rolling downhill. The Broncos had a quality showing in Green Bay in Week 3, but could not overcome the turnovers and last week, Denver took a double digit lead into the half at home against the Jaguars and gave it all back before again allowing a last second field goal to take home the loss. Of all the winless teams left in this league, the Broncos have been the most "unlucky". This team couldn't buy a bounce if you let it, but over time, turnovers and other luck driven results usually even out. We’re pretty sure that the Broncos will leave nothing on the table and actually dig down even deeper to try and get a first win for their rookie and well-liked coach, Vic Fangio.

The Chargers slept walked through their win over the Dolphins with a patchwork lineup in what was a glorified bye week. It's funny, because when the news came out last Sunday that L.A. would be sitting many of its starters, the market pounded the Dolphins. There were so many talking points against the Chargers despite the huge double digit spread, including the tidbit that they hadn't won in eight regular-season trips to South Beach. The market didn't trust a team like the Chargers spotting such a big price on the road and they paid for it. Now, in a classic zig-zag situation, we suspect they'll pounce on what looks like a very beatable number. We love +6½ point pooches and we target them weekly. When this line opened, it was perfect, as a well known pick seller couldn't wait to post his "free" play for the week and on Monday, he was all over the Chargers at -6½. Forgive us for putting little stock into that win and cover in Miami. Sure we cashed a ticket, but that game didn't tell anybody anything about where this Chargers team really is. Malcontent and former hold out Melvin Gordon is back in the fold, sans a big money deal, and now the Chargers will be forced to give him touches when their running game has been their strongest asset this season. It wasn't long ago that the Bolts were 1-2 and circling the drain. Last week's results aside, this is not the kind of team you want to be spotting a price with.

Not only do we love +6½ point dogs, but we also love that the Chargers are in a prime lookahead spot with the Steelers coming to town for Sunday Night Football in Week 6. Fading teams in this position this season has also been profitable. Just look at the Chiefs, Rams and Colts struggles last Sunday. All three are featured in high profile prime time games here in Week 5. We’ll see how it all plays out but in terms of value and overpriced chalk, this one just night turn out to be one of the better wagers on the board. We’ll consider a money line wager on Sunday. Invest.

-------------------------------------------------------

A cheaper and better alternative to CABLE

TV Programming

A GREAT OFFER FOR SPORTSWAGERS READERS:

We’re offering a better and cheaper alternative to cable TV. You will literally save thousands of dollars. If you’re sick of paying a fortune for programming that you don’t even want or need, this is for you. All pro sports -- EVERY GAME, tons of college football and basketball games and tons of regular programming (non-sports). Over 2500 channels all in HD for a mere $20 per month. You have to be nuts not to get it.

Get all the details here



Our Pick

Early leans & analysis (Risking 0 units - To Win: 0.00)