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Posted at 3:00 PM EST.

PITTSBURGH -3½ +103 over Cincinnati

8:20 PM EST. The 0-3 Bengals face off against the 0-3 Steelers. Things have not gone well this year for either team and both have lost star players. Hard to fathom how much has changed in the Steelers offense. Mason Rudolph caught no break when he had to debut against the 49ers on the road. The passing stats are not only down this year, and getting worse, but the rushing game has yet to really appear. That’s what you’re going to read and hear about today but we urge you to ignore all the talking heads because they’re trying to break this game down to X’s and O’s and make a prediction. What they don’t realize is that they have no fu**ing clue what’s going to happen in this game and neither do we but we can absolutely assure you where the value lies and it’s not with Cincinnati.

The Steelers got walloped in their season opening embarrassment against the Patriots in Foxboro. Week 1 is a complete Wild Card week, as many teams are not prepared as they thought they were. The Steelers hosted the Seahawks in Week 2 and traveled to play at San Francisco in Week 3. The three teams that the Steelers have played and lost to are a combined 10-1 with the only loss being Seattle’s loss in New Orleans. The Steelers were in a position to win the past two games, thus they could easily be 2-1 instead of 0-3 but they’re getting no respect in this market. By contrast, the Bengals are getting respect with the same 0-3 record. Why then are the Bengals getting respect and the Steelers aren’t? The reason is because Pittsburgh’s expectations were high and the Bengals expectations were low. Furthermore, Cincinnati is 2-1 against the spread while the Steelers are 1-2. To sum it up, the Steelers record is a big disappointment while the Bengals were very competitive in Seattle and in Buffalo. The Bengals 0-3 record is no surprise but that they competed against two good teams (Buffalo and Seattle) was. Pittsburgh was not expected to be 0-3 and thus, as a result of “market perception”, the Bengals are getting far too much respect. Big deal they competed with Buffalo. Buffalo will blow out zero teams this year. Big deal the Bengals competed in Seattle. Seattle is a one-man show and they’re not that good. Cinci lost by 24 points at home to the 49ers. The resume of these two teams are near identical. Pittsburgh played San Francisco and Seattle also. They lost by two points to the 49ers and it was their rookie QB’s first game.

Speaking of rookie QB’s, there is a changing of the guard taking place in the NFL right now with younger, smarter, hungrier and more talented QB’s taking over from washed up, banged up and slower QB’s. Kyle Allen for Cam Newton, Daniel Jones for Eli Manning, Patrick Mahomes, Jacoby Brissett, Kyler Murray, Gardner Minshew, Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson for example. One can add Pittsburgh’s Mason Rudolph to that list. In fact, don’t be surprised if Beg Ben never gets his job back. From the time he took his first snaps as a high school starter, Rudolph has been obsessed with the weekly preparation as much as game day. He's comfortable in his own skin with a demeanor that makes him a natural leader. He has the off-the-field qualities of a starting quarterback and he’s playing like one too. Rudolph wasn't supposed to take any snaps on Sept. 15 against the Seattle Seahawks. Just as he'd been for the past 16 seasons, Roethlisberger was the Steelers' starting quarterback. That didn't deter Rudolph from going through his meticulous pregame warm-up. He walked up and down the Steelers' side of the field with his arms bent at a 90-degree angle, moving them up and down near his head like a cyclist signaling a right turn and then a stop over and over again. During the game, he stood close to the sideline, often with his helmet on as he went through mental reps. If anything happened, Rudolph was ready. And then it did. After a deep throw in the second quarter fell incomplete, Roethlisberger grabbed his elbow. He completed one more pass and went to the locker room at halftime. When the team re-emerged, Rudolph was playing. A day later, Roethlisberger was put on injured reserve and a week later he had elbow surgery.

The sudden transition might be jarring for another backup, but not for Rudolph. Not for the guy who has always savored the process and prepared like a starter, even as he sat behind one of the most entrenched franchise quarterbacks in the NFL. This kid can play QB and the Steelers stock is about to rise.

Meanwhile, the Bengals are choosing to use Andy Dalton more because they’re paying Andy Dalton. The Bengals have a QB on the bench that is superior to Dalton but like other stubborn clubs, they won’t admit the mistake they made and they’ll continue to start a QB that is worse than Kirk Cousins in big games. Every year, Andy Dalton will play like Jets QB Luke Falk three or four games a year. Andy Dalton’s numbers are declining each week. It seems that the new offense under HC Zac Taylor and OC Brian Callahan isn't surprising anyone three weeks into the season as it did to start the year in Seattle. From where we sit, the Steelers have new life injected into them with Rudolph while the Bengals are stale with Howdy Doody.

The Bengals are usually competitive against the Steelers but being priced like this on the road in the mind-state that they are in is a brand new badge of honor and might be taking the respect a bit too far. Pittsburgh’s bandwagon has emptied after three straight losses, which means there's an opportunity again in backing the Towels. Monday Night usually doesn’t offer the home side up with value but this time it does and it’s tremendous.

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