Oakland @ INDIANAPOLIS
Oakland +6 -103 over INDIANAPOLIS

Pinnacle +6 -103 BET365 +6½ -115 SportsInteraction + -110 5DIMES + -110 888Sport + -110

Posted at 11:15 AM EST.

Oakland +6 -103 over INDIANAPOLIS

1:00 PM EST. The Raiders were taking back nine points last week in Minnesota and didn’t come close to covering. Oakland’s last two games were losses by at least 18 points and now this market understandably wants nothing to do with them. Market perception is a big part of our process because the best time to jump in on a team is when the market is jumping off and right now, they’re jumping off Oakland in droves. By contrast and three weeks into the season and no one can even remember the old quarterback. You know... Stanford guy... dang…

What a perfect time to sell on the Colts, as they have instantly become one of the flavors of the month. The Colts were in the spotlight for all the wrong reasons in the offseason when Andrew Luck surprisingly announced his retirement. Indy then became a fade target in Week 1 when they were taking back inflated points in L.A. against the Chargers. The Colts would force OT in Week 1 and although they lost, they still covered. As a road underdog in Week 2, The Colts would go into Tennessee and beat the Titans outright the week after The Titans blew away the Browns by 30 points. At 2-0 ATS, the Colts would put away the Falcons last week as a small home favorite to run its ATS record to 3-0. The Colts have become one of the sportsbook’s favorite teams thus far but this week that is going to change, as most of the market will be jumping on the Colts. Thing is, those that jump on Indy are very likely three weeks too late.

Once again, we urge you to forget about the X’s and O’s. Let Michael Strahan tell you all about how the Raiders cannot compete right now, the same way he was preaching the same thing about the Giants “wrong” decision to bench Eli Manning last week. Wagering on the NFL has nothing to do with schemes, play calling or any of that other crap. It has everything to do with finding the right time to jump on or jump off a team. After three weeks of not being sure what the Colts are or are not, the market has been turned on by the Colts in a big way after they covered again last week. By contrast, the market has been turned off by the Raiders in a big way. Combined, that sets this one up for the Raiders to be taking back inflated points. It also puts the Colts in the “expected to win” role as opposed to being in the more suited role of the underdog. After Luck retired, the Colts were written off by the market and media and started the season with a chip on its shoulder. That chip has been removed, at least for this week, and it makes Indy a strong fade target at precisely the right time. 

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Our Pick

Oakland +6 -103 (Risking 2.06 units - To Win: 2.00)