Pinnacle -2½ -105 BET365 -2½ -110 SportsInteraction -2½ -110 5DIMES -2½ -110 888Sport -2½ -114

Posted at 9:30 AM EST.

DENVER -2½ -105 over Jacksonville 

4:25 PM EST. A prime time win does wonders for a team’s market appeal. Enter the Jaguars, who are coming off a 20-7 Thursday Night Football win over the Titans. Jacksonville is now 1-2, but the emergence of rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew II has taken Northern Florida and beyond by storm. With his headband, mustache, aviators and cutoff jeans, Minshew II has become an irresistible internet sensation. He's got "it" whatever "it" is, which makes him very easy to root for. Minshew II is fun in a league that hates the "F" word. However, now that he's gone from sixth-round draft pick to high profile starting quarterback is anyone's stock more inflated than GM2? A closer look under the hood shows that the rookie is 17th in quarterback DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) and 16th in DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) over at Football Outsiders. The latter stat gives the value of quarterback's performance compared to a replacement-level player. Minshew has been pretty good, but his press clippings outweigh his credentials after two-and-a-half games. Meanwhile, his counterpart Joe Flacco is about as uninspiring as it comes.

The Broncos are 0-3 and they have got to be hungry in this spot. Of the five winless teams remaining, Denver has allowed the fewest points, which is about the nicest thing we can come up with to say about these Broncos. It's not easy to find positive fodder for a team batting .000, but what we will say is that through three weeks, Denver has been its own worst enemy. The Broncos have turned the ball over four times in three games, which makes it really hard to win. Although it is getting raked over the coals, the Denver offense has outgained their opposition in all three games and if not for the questionable penalty against the Bronco defense in Week 2, they would have won that game against the Bears. Last week in Green Bay, the Broncos had more first downs than the Packers and owned the rock by over 11-minutes.  The difference was three turnovers, including two fumbles inside their own territory and a late interception in Green Bay's end that stopped the Broncos dead in their tracks. 

Spotting points with a team like the Broncos is not going to be an appealing proposition, but that's the point. This game opened with the Broncos as a -3½-point favorite, which is a "favorite" number because it encourages bettors to take the "hook" on a key number. With so much information available today, many in the market are trying their best to be "sharp" bettors, but there really is no such thing. Nobody can predict the outcomes of these games, which is why we are always preaching to play the value and let the chips fall where they may. Short priced favorites are real and the Broncos are just that in spades this week. The Broncos, who have the most significant home field edge in this league are barely spotting a field goal against an invader featuring a rookie pivot. This line is so disrespectful, but that’s gorgeous because it provides us with this outstanding opportunity.

We're also not concerned about the Broncs possibly missing two cornerbacks, as one is questionable and one is out but we care not. There is an overreaction to that, which took the line below -3 and that's just another cue for us to move in.

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