Week 4
Early leans & analysis

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Posted Friday, September 27 at 12:15 PM EST

NFL 2019

Week 4

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criterion we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday.

We’re intent on providing our readers with the best possible selections and doing so on Sunday instead of Friday just makes more sense. We made that change last year and ended up going 81-57. Again, we’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST.

We’re switching from one side to the other on the following games today:

We originally had New England -7 over Buffalo

We’re now recommending BUFFALO +7 over New England We wrote that the moment might be too big for the Bills and that could be true but we’re liking the way the Bills are handling their modest success so far. They are saying all the right things on social media and shying away from the media while focussing on the task at hand. In other words, they are humble right now and this is a season defining game for an outfit that has been waiting 15 years for this. We’re not sure if the Patriots are as good as their record. Their coach and QB and perhaps the defense is but seriously, the Patriots have not even broke a sweat yet in wins over unprepared Pittsburgh, The putrid Dolphins and the QB-less Jets. The Bills are battle tested x3 and have come out on top in every game. In years past, the three wins are games the Bills would’ve found a way to lose and now they’re taking back too many points against an offense that could struggle to score all day long.

We originally had Tennessee +4 over ATLANTA

We’re not recommending ATLANTA -3½ over Tennessee

We don’t like the way this price has moved towards the Titans and continues to move this morning. Last week, the market pounded Atlanta, got burned when they lost to the Colts and now the zig-zag theory is in effect.

HOUSTON -5½ -105 over Carolina 

1:00 PM EST. Now that Cam Newton is on the shelf for a while, the Panther offense changes to include accurate passing. The victory in Arizona wasn't a shock given their defense, but after an 0-2 start, any win is welcomed. It’s hard to put any weight on the Panthers first two losses, as a crippled Cam Newton was virtually useless out there. However, we’re not jumping on this Panthers bandwagon this week because of one win over an unprepared Arizona squad that is coached by a dude whose vocabulary doesn’t have the word defense in it. Kliff Kinngsbury cares about offense only. Scrolling through the internet sites that cover this sport extensively, we’re seeing way too much Panthers love this week based on one great performance by Kyle Allen after the Panthers dropped 38 points on the Cardinals. The problem is that this isn’t the Cardinals.

Houston has been in three close games and should probably be 3-0 after a heartbreaking loss in Week 1 to the Brees-led Saints but make no mistake that the Texans are for real. The Texans enjoyed a solid road win at the Chargers last week to keep them atop the AFC South. A major positive was the addition of LT Laremy Tunsil and after getting sacked 10 times over the first two weeks, Deshaun Watson was only dropped twice by the Chargers. If the offensive line can just protect Watson, it makes a significant difference and keeps the quarterback healthy, on the field and as dangerous as anyone out there. The Texans are loaded with offensive weapons while the Panthers rely on one guy every week to have a big game. If Christian McCaffrey doesn’t have a big game, the Panthers are a team in trouble. For now, we’re going to settle in on the Texans, as the sense we’re getting is that Carolina’s stock is rising while the Texans stock is neutral.

Cleveland +7 -102 over BALTIMORE

1:00 PM EST. Once a preseason darling, these Browns have lost a ton of market credibility after a no-show against the Titans in Week 1 and looking like the dog's breakfast in primetime on Sunday Night Football against the Rams last week. A Week 2 win on Monday Night Football against the lowly Jets isn't worth its weight in bet slips, even if many in this market cashed in on Cleveland that night. The Brownies are taking plenty of heat from the head coach all the way down to the water boy after Freddie Kitchens called a draw play on fourth-and-9 from the Rams' 40-yard line. It was a call so terrible that Kitchens would later apologize and admit that it was a "bad call." Since ESPN started tracking those kinds of calls in 2007, precisely zero teams have ever tried that play on that down and distance. That's a hell of a way to make the record books, Freddie. One of our readers called Kitchens “the worst coach in “football” and it’s hard to argue against that. With brash Baker Mayfield being roasted as well, the Brownies once sunny outlook for 2019 has now turned many shades of gray. Those in the market with high hopes for this team are not likely going to be too eager to back them here against a Ravens side whose stock is soaring after a 2-1 start.

The Ravens only loss this season came last Sunday against the Chiefs and it's going to look like a "good" loss to casual observers. However, we watched much of that game and believe the Chiefs took their foot off the gas after going up 17 to start the fourth quarter. A furious 15-point frame from Baltimore would get the Ravens within single digits (33-28) with two minutes to go but K.C. closed it out with a first down to run out the clock. It was never really in doubt. While the Ravens covered (depending on what number you got), it never really felt like they were a threat to complete the comeback. Lamar Jackson has been a fantasy darling and that may continue, but fake football stardom and covering a number while spotting points are two totally different games. Forgive us for putting no stock in Baltimore's Week 1 drubbing of the Dolphins. As double-digit chalk at home against the Cardinals in Week 2, this team struggled more than it should have and could not make a stop in the fourth quarter allowing the Red Birds to walk right in the back door. We would be remiss if we didn't mention that the Cardinals had the ball with a chance to take the lead in that game, which would totally change the perception of the Ravens. Baltimore is a prime sell high candidate after a high profile game at Kansas City. With a date against its most hated rival on deck in Pittsburgh, the Ravens are in a massive “sandwich game”, thus making this a combination of a great situational spot and a great buy-low/sell high spot too. 

DETROIT +7 -102 over Kansas City

1:00 PM EST. The Chiefs need little introduction here and we have little doubt that they are going to be a popular play this week. Kansas City is 3-0, but where it matters most, at the window, the Chiefs are paying out like a broken slot machine. The market loves a winner and K.C. has cashed tickets in three straight games to start the season (again, depending on what number you got against the Ravens). The Chiefs have been a solid bet this season, which is why this might look like a short price, but this could be a bad situational spot for Kansas City. You see, the Chiefs host Sunday Night Football next week, which could make this trip to Detroit a bit of an afterthought. Primetime games are a big deal, especially in a football-crazed city, meanwhile, the Lions are chomping at the bit to prove themselves against the league's best.

Matthew Stafford and company are undefeated at 2-0-1, but we doubt that record is going to carry much weight in the market with the mighty Chiefs coming to The Motor City. It's easy to poke holes in Detroit's success over the first three weeks, as it tied the lowly Cardinals, beat the underachieving Chargers and then finished off the IR riddled Eagles last Sunday. The combined record for the Lions opponents so far is 3-8, which was fodder for the Detroit papers, as was the performance of the defense which ranks 23rd in yardage. The Detroit D has taken heat as well despite the overall success of the team and defensive lineman Trey Flowers made it know that group was ready for the Chiefs. "We understand the challenge that's coming in. They have a very high-powered offensive scheme that can make a lot of explosive plays. I'm looking forward to it. I think we're looking forward to it." This is a statement game for the Lions, no doubt, as Kansas City is considered to be one of the top contenders in the NFL. While all things are not equal, early last season, the Lions were priced in a similar range against the mighty Patriots and they won that game outright. Detroit was winless at that time and looked like an easy target. It was an important reminder that the number posted can often be much more important than who is actually suiting up on either sideline. The line here very much dictates this play. 6½-point pooches are often the best bet on the board in any given week and we will not lay off the great value that number provides here. 

Washington +3 +100 over N.Y. GIANTS

1:00 PM EST. It didn't take long for Daniel Jones to become the "King" of New York after he led the Giants back from being down double digits to defeat the Buccaneers in Tampa. It was a great win but let's not forget it took three missed kicks for a combined five points including a 34-yard "chip shot" as time expired that would have won it for the Bucs. Back to Jones, who was widely criticized by pundits as not being worthy of his sixth overall draft position and is now being touted as one of the top fantasy free agent pickups this weekend. If you ever need an example as to why you should ignore the talking heads, take ESPN's Max Kellerman, who roasted Giants general manager Dave Gettleman for drafting Jones last April. Now, after one start, Kellerman was apologizing. Most of these guys have no spine and have made a career of talking out of both sides of their mouth. Maybe Jones will be great, but one start does not make a superstar. While "Danny Dimes" is dominating the headlines, the loss of Saquon Barkley is not going to be an easy one for New York to overcome. We believe in the "next man up" philosophy, but Barkley is the rare exception. He's basically their entire offense. We'll see how Jones and company handle the pressure when the opposition doesn't have to worry about one of the league's best players. If the win alone wasn't enough to over inflate the G-Men's standing, a home date with a Redskins side that was embarrassed again on national television surely did.

Where to start with Washington? The 'Skins should probably be taking back a touchdown or better based on how poorly they played on Monday Night Football, thus this number is going to look really short to an easily influenced market. We're not going to make a case for Washington based on the X's and O's. We just know the books aren't in the habit of giving away money. The oddsmakers could have posted a larger number on this game and we doubt this market would have blinked. There is a perception that the bad teams in this league are easy targets, as the Dolphins, Raiders, Bengals, Jets and Redskins all lost to the point-spread. Only the Jets covered and if you cashed that ticket, you know it was a gift. Do we like the Redskins? That matters not. We trust this team will be competitive this week because this number says so. 

Dallas -3 -110 over NEW ORLEANS

8:20 PM EST. We all know the story. Dallas hosted Miami last week and looked completely uninterested in the first half before getting a kick in the rear at halftime. The ‘Boys would come out and blow away the Fish in the second half. No big deal. That win was expected. Dallas has beaten the Giants B.J. (Before Jones), Miami and the Redskins. Had Tampa’s kicker not missed a chip-shot FG last week against said Giants, those three teams that Dallas beat would be a combined 0-9. Like the Patriots, Dallas hasn’t broken a sweat yet so we really don’t know how good they are. 

The second part to this story and the more significant part is the Saints and the loss of Drew Brees. When Brees went down early against the Rams two weeks ago, New Orleans couldn’t move five yards afterward and ended up losing 27-9. Faced with the daunting ask of playing in Seattle without Brees, there were not a lot of folks that gave the Saints a chance but the team rose to the occasion behind Teddy Bridgewater and built a 27-7 going into the fourth quarter before holding on for a six-point victory. Seattle outscored the Saints 20-6 in the fourth to make the game much closer than it appeared. The Saints regained a lot of market credibility after that surprise win, which makes us instant sellers on the Saints. You see, New Orleans scored on a fumble return and a punt return. That’s 14 of their 33 points. Teddy Bridgewater passed for a mere 177 yards and rushed for 12 yards on three runs. By halftime,  Bridgewater only totaled 87 passing yards with just one completion to Michael Thomas but they connected better in the final half. Last week we wrote that Sean Payton wasn’t even sure which QB he was going to start but chose Bridgewater by process of elimination. Payton was reluctant to go with Bridgewater because he knows that Teddy has the arm strength of a wingless seagull. Every pass downfield looks like it’s on replay. Faced with a mild pass rush, Teddy looks like the town bully just told him to meet him behind school at three o’clock. This is the same QB that had his leg explode in a non-contact drill, an injury so severe it nearly led to amputation and left witnesses on the field crying and barfing. For those that bet against the Saints last week, we’re sorry to tell you that you were one week premature. This is the week to do it, after they appeared to be able to play without Brees. That market perception now allows us to get the ‘Boys at a reduced price.

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Our Pick

Early leans & analysis (Risking 0 units - To Win: 0.00)