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Posted Friday, September 27 at 12:15 PM EST

NFL 2019

Week 4

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criterion we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday.

We’re intent on providing our readers with the best possible selections and doing so on Sunday instead of Friday just makes more sense. We made that change last year and ended up going 81-57. Again, we’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST.

HOUSTON -4 -105 over Carolina 

1:00 PM EST. Now that Cam Newton is on the shelf for a while, the Panther offense changes to include accurate passing. The victory in Arizona wasn't a shock given their defense, but after an 0-2 start, any win is welcomed. It’s hard to put any weight on the Panthers first two losses, as a crippled Cam Newton was virtually useless out there. However, we’re not jumping on this Panthers bandwagon this week because of one win over an unprepared Arizona squad that is coached by a dude whose vocabulary doesn’t have the word defense in it. Kliff Kinngsbury cares about offense only. Scrolling through the internet sites that cover this sport extensively, we’re seeing way too much Panthers love this week based on one great performance by Kyle Allen after the Panthers dropped 38 points on the Cardinals. The problem is that this isn’t the Cardinals.

Houston has been in three close games and should probably be 3-0 after a heartbreaking loss in Week 1 to the Brees-led Saints but make no mistake that the Texans are for real. The Texans enjoyed a solid road win at the Chargers last week to keep them atop the AFC South. A major positive was the addition of LT Laremy Tunsil and after getting sacked 10 times over the first two weeks, Deshaun Watson was only dropped twice by the Chargers. If the offensive line can just protect Watson, it makes a significant difference and keeps the quarterback healthy, on the field and as dangerous as anyone out there. The Texans are loaded with offensive weapons while the Panthers rely on one guy every week to have a big game. If Christian McCaffrey doesn’t have a big game, the Panthers are a team in trouble. For now, we’re going to settle in on the Texans, as the sense we’re getting is that Carolina’s stock is rising while the Texans stock is neutral.

Cleveland +6½ -101 over BALTIMORE

1:00 PM EST. Once a preseason darling, these Browns have lost a ton of market credibility after a no-show against the Titans in Week 1 and looking like the dog's breakfast in primetime on Sunday Night Football against the Rams last week. A Week 2 win on Monday Night Football against the lowly Jets isn't worth its weight in bet slips, even if many in this market cashed in on Cleveland that night. The Brownies are taking plenty of heat from the head coach all the way down to the water boy after Freddie Kitchens called a draw play on fourth-and-9 from the Rams' 40-yard line. It was a call so terrible that Kitchens would later apologize and admit that it was a "bad call." Since ESPN started tracking those kinds of calls in 2007, precisely zero teams have ever tried that play on that down and distance. That's a hell of a way to make the record books, Freddie. One of our readers called Kitchens “the worst coach in “football” and it’s hard to argue against that. With brash Baker Mayfield being roasted as well, the Brownies once sunny outlook for 2019 has now turned many shades of gray. Those in the market with high hopes for this team are not likely going to be too eager to back them here against a Ravens side whose stock is soaring after a 2-1 start.

The Ravens only loss this season came last Sunday against the Chiefs and it's going to look like a "good" loss to casual observers. However, we watched much of that game and believe the Chiefs took their foot off the gas after going up 17 to start the fourth quarter. A furious 15-point frame from Baltimore would get the Ravens within single digits (33-28) with two minutes to go but K.C. closed it out with a first down to run out the clock. It was never really in doubt. While the Ravens covered (depending on what number you got), it never really felt like they were a threat to complete the comeback. Lamar Jackson has been a fantasy darling and that may continue, but fake football stardom and covering a number while spotting points are two totally different games. Forgive us for putting no stock in Baltimore's Week 1 drubbing of the Dolphins. As double-digit chalk at home against the Cardinals in Week 2, this team struggled more than it should have and could not make a stop in the fourth quarter allowing the Red Birds to walk right in the back door. We would be remiss if we didn't mention that the Cardinals had the ball with a chance to take the lead in that game, which would totally change the perception of the Ravens. Baltimore is a prime sell high candidate after a high profile game at Kansas City. With a date against its most hated rival on deck in Pittsburgh, the Ravens are in a massive “sandwich game”, thus making this a combination of a great situational spot and a great buy-low/sell high spot too. 

DETROIT +6½ -105 over Kansas City

1:00 PM EST. The Chiefs need little introduction here and we have little doubt that they are going to be a popular play this week. Kansas City is 3-0, but where it matters most, at the window, the Chiefs are paying out like a broken slot machine. The market loves a winner and K.C. has cashed tickets in three straight games to start the season (again, depending on what number you got against the Ravens). The Chiefs have been a solid bet this season, which is why this might look like a short price, but this could be a bad situational spot for Kansas City. You see, the Chiefs host Sunday Night Football next week, which could make this trip to Detroit a bit of an afterthought. Primetime games are a big deal, especially in a football-crazed city, meanwhile, the Lions are chomping at the bit to prove themselves against the league's best.

Matthew Stafford and company are undefeated at 2-0-1, but we doubt that record is going to carry much weight in the market with the mighty Chiefs coming to The Motor City. It's easy to poke holes in Detroit's success over the first three weeks, as it tied the lowly Cardinals, beat the underachieving Chargers and then finished off the IR riddled Eagles last Sunday. The combined record for the Lions opponents so far is 3-8, which was fodder for the Detroit papers, as was the performance of the defense which ranks 23rd in yardage. The Detroit D has taken heat as well despite the overall success of the team and defensive lineman Trey Flowers made it know that group was ready for the Chiefs. "We understand the challenge that's coming in. They have a very high-powered offensive scheme that can make a lot of explosive plays. I'm looking forward to it. I think we're looking forward to it." This is a statement game for the Lions, no doubt, as Kansas City is considered to be one of the top contenders in the NFL. While all things are not equal, early last season, the Lions were priced in a similar range against the mighty Patriots and they won that game outright. Detroit was winless at that time and looked like an easy target. It was an important reminder that the number posted can often be much more important than who is actually suiting up on either sideline. The line here very much dictates this play. 6½-point pooches are often the best bet on the board in any given week and we will not lay off the great value that number provides here. 

Washington +3 -111 over N.Y. GIANTS

1:00 PM EST. It didn't take long for Daniel Jones to become the "King" of New York after he led the Giants back from being down double digits to defeat the Buccaneers in Tampa. It was a great win but let's not forget it took three missed kicks for a combined five points including a 34-yard "chip shot" as time expired that would have won it for the Bucs. Back to Jones, who was widely criticized by pundits as not being worthy of his sixth overall draft position and is now being touted as one of the top fantasy free agent pickups this weekend. If you ever need an example as to why you should ignore the talking heads, take ESPN's Max Kellerman, who roasted Giants general manager Dave Gettleman for drafting Jones last April. Now, after one start, Kellerman was apologizing. Most of these guys have no spine and have made a career of talking out of both sides of their mouth. Maybe Jones will be great, but one start does not make a superstar. While "Danny Dimes" is dominating the headlines, the loss of Saquon Barkley is not going to be an easy one for New York to overcome. We believe in the "next man up" philosophy, but Barkley is the rare exception. He's basically their entire offense. We'll see how Jones and company handle the pressure when the opposition doesn't have to worry about one of the league's best players. If the win alone wasn't enough to over inflate the G-Men's standing, a home date with a Redskins side that was embarrassed again on national television surely did.

Where to start with Washington? The 'Skins should probably be taking back a touchdown or better based on how poorly they played on Monday Night Football, thus this number is going to look really short to an easily influenced market. We're not going to make a case for Washington based on the X's and O's. We just know the books aren't in the habit of giving away money. The oddsmakers could have posted a larger number on this game and we doubt this market would have blinked. There is a perception that the bad teams in this league are easy targets, as the Dolphins, Raiders, Bengals, Jets and Redskins all lost to the point-spread. Only the Jets covered and if you cashed that ticket, you know it was a gift. Do we like the Redskins? That matters not. We trust this team will be competitive this week because this number says so. 

ARIZONA +5 -108 over Seattle

4:05 PM EST. This is a very interesting game, as these two teams are coming off of similar Sundays. First up are the Seahawks, who dropped a 33-27 decision to the Saints, which was a final score that greatly flattered host Seattle. The Seachickens needed a 20-point fourth quarter just to make it "interesting" after the Saints went up 27-7 before that final frame. The closest Seattle would get would be six points after Will Dissly caught a Russell Wilson pass with no time left on the clock. It was the definition of a garbage touchdown. The Seahawks were never a threat to win that game. Through three weeks, Seattle has looked wholly unimpressive after a tough battle and a one-point victory over the winless Bengals and a two-point win over a Steelers side that lost Ben Roethlisberger. This annual trip to the desert has also not been kind to the Seachickens over the years. We are also always mindful of who is playing in the prime time games a week out and lo and behold, the Seachickens are set to host the Rams on Thursday Night Football. This appears to be a prime look ahead spot. 

Just when the Cardinals had built an ounce of credibility in this market after a hard-fought "good" loss on the road in Baltimore, they laid an egg at home against the Kyle Allen led Panthers. That 38-20 final was every bit as lopsided as it looked. Cardinals quarterback and former number one pick Kyler Murray was outclassed by an undrafted free agent and he and his Red Bird teammates shot themselves in the foot again and again with a pair of turnovers, multiple penalties and eight sacks against. Those errors were the biggest reason the Cardinals found themselves in such a hole. Now Arizona goes from overpriced favorite to an undervalued home pooch, which is a role they’re much more suited for. 

L.A. Chargers -16 -105 over MIAMI

1:00 PM EST. Our first inclination here was obviously to to take the points. However, we also have to try and put on the suit of an oddsmaker and try and figure out if they put up a price so big that it would almost be impossible for anyone to back the favorite. It's not often that you see a 1-2 team open as one of the biggest road favorites in NFL history, but that's exactly what's happening here. To put that in perspective, this will mark just the fifth time since 1980 that a road team has been favored by 17 or more points, and two of those instances have happened with this year's Dolphins (besides this game, it also happened in Week 2 when the Patriots closed as an 18-point road favorite).

On top of that, the Chargers aren’t some monster public team that blows out teams. This isn’t the Chiefs, Cowboys or Patriots we’re talking about, no, this is a visiting team whose stock is low after losing at home last week to Houston and it’s also a team known for its many clunker performances over the years. Every year the Chargers lose games that they’re not supposed to. The point is, who the f**k in their right mind is going to spot 16 points with the Chargers on the road? Yeah, the Dolphins got smoked again last week and didn’t cover but they put up a stubborn first-half performance that will inspire the market into not spotting this type of lumber against them this week, especially at home and especially against the Bolts. 

Readers of this space know that spotting this type of weight on the road in a pro game is not in our wheelhouse but is it in anyone’s? We don’t think it is. Hell, if New England was -18 in Miami, how can the Chargers be priced in the same range? NFL teams do not get blown out every week. NFL teams and players have pride and egos and to the Dolphins, this has to be embarrassing to be offered points like this in your own barn. Frankly, we cannot think of one reason to bet the Chargers to beat the number here but at the same time, we have to trust that almost everyone is thinking the same thing. The number suggests to us that the oddsmakers are expecting another bloodbath here because we cannot imagine anyone picking the Chargers to cover this price. We’re almost sure that the books are going to need the Chargers to cover here and we prefer to be on the same side as they are.

Tennessee +4 -103 over ATLANTA

1:00 PM EST. The Titans were given little shot to take out the Browns in Week 1, but they marched into Cleveland and ran all over the home side. That big win over what many in the market saw as a preseason contender sent Tennessee’s stock through the roof and as a result, it was a heavily bet team the last two weeks. Bad idea, as the Titans have gone 0-2 against the number since then with outright losses to Indianapolis and Jacksonville as the betting favorite with the latter happening in prime time. To suggest that the Titans have lost their opening week luster would be an understatement and now that the market is jumping off, it’s time for us to jump back on. Back to the Titans Week 3 loss in a high profile spot on Thursday Night Football against the Jags. That one was particularly ugly, as Tennessee's Marcus Mariota was bested by rookie pivot and mustache aficionado Garnder Minshew II. There's now the question that if Mariota couldn't keep up with GM2, how could he ever go throw-for-throw with Matty Ice?

The Falcons fell to the Colts on Sunday, but a furious comeback and a near-perfect stat line for quarterback Matt Ryan has them getting a long look from the market here in Week 4. We saw one pungent pick seller state that while both these teams have losing records, the Dirty Birds have been "decent." As Seth Myers and Amy Pohler used to quip on Weekend Update, "really? really?!"  We won't give the scumbag the satisfaction of a mention, but this is why you never pay for picks. We had Atlanta pegged for a poor season (and backed that up with a bet on them to go under their season win total) unlike so many pundits and we plan to continue our attack on them this week. 

New England -7 over BUFFALO 

1:00 PM EST. This one is tough to decipher whose stock is higher, as the Bills are 3-0 and has that city in a frenzied state while the Patriots are doing what they always do, that being going about their business in a methodical way without getting too high or too low. We also have to consider that New England has played Miami, the Jets and Pittsburgh and hasn't even broken a sweat yet. One of the major ingredients in the recipe for success by the Patriots is to play in a division that is devoid of any contenders each and every year. 

But what about the Bills? Who have they played? Buffalo has played the 0-3 Jets, 0-3 Bengals and the 1-2 Giants B.J. (Before Jones). They were down 16-0 to the Jets and eventually won by a point and they needed a late score to beat the Bengals. In between, the Bills beat the Giants and are the reason that Eli Manning is holding a pencil and a clipboard on Sunday's. Buffalo has sweated out its games while New England has toyed with its competition. Buffalo's stock is high and New England's stock is high so normally we would take the points, especially a converted TD but there are signs the oddsmakers are giving us to spot the points. 

First, the number came out at -7½. That's one of our favorite chalk numbers because of the hook on a key number like 7 to entice the unsuspecting into playing the wrong side. Secondly, we have to wonder if this moment is just a bit too big for a Buffalo team that is used to being a double-digit dog to New England and then going out and usually losing by double digits. However, now for the first time in quite a while, the local media and fans are giving the Bills a shot and again, the moment may just be a bit too big for a franchise that has been painfully bad ever since the Jim Kelly days. This is without question the Bills most anticipated game in 15 years. No quarterback has more wins over a single franchise than Tom Brady over these Bills. He's 30-3 and has failed to throw a touchdown pass in his last two games against them. The results? Two wins. Maybe the Bills supposedly stout defense will shut Tommy Boy out again, but that is unlikely. If the flood gate opens, it's not going to take long for that familiar feeling to sweep over the Bills Mafia. Here we go again? Here we go again. Pats roll. 

Oakland +6½ -105 over INDIANAPOLIS

1:00 PM EST. The Raiders were taking back nine points last week in Minnesota and didn’t come close to covering. Oakland’s last two games were losses by at least 18 points and now this market understandably wants nothing to do with them. Market perception is a big part of our process because the best time to jump in on a team is when the market is jumping off and right now, they’re jumping off Oakland in droves. By contrast and three weeks into the season and no one can even remember the old quarterback. You know... Stanford guy... dang…

What a perfect time to sell on the Colts, as they have instantly become one of the flavors of the month. The Colts were in the spotlight for all the wrong reasons in the offseason when Andrew Luck surprisingly announced his retirement. Indy then became a fade target in Week 1 when they were taking back inflated points in L.A. against the Chargers. The Colts would force OT in Week 1 and although they lost, they still covered. As a road underdog in Week 2, The Colts would go into Tennessee and beat the Titans outright the week after The Titans blew away the Browns by 30 points. At 2-0 ATS, the Colts would put away the Falcons last week as a small home favorite to run its ATS record to 3-0. The Colts have become one of the sportsbook’s favorite teams thus far but this week that is going to change, as most of the market will be jumping on the Colts. Thing is, those that jump on Indy are very likely three weeks too late. 

Once again, we urge you to forget about the X’s and O’s. Let Michael Strahan tell you all about how the Raiders cannot compete right now, the same way he was preaching the same thing about the Giants “wrong” decision to bench Eli Manning last week. Wagering on the NFL has nothing to do with schemes, play calling or any of that other crap. It has everything to do with finding the right time to jump on or jump off a team. After three weeks of not being sure what the Colts are or are not, the market has been turned on by the Colts in a big way after they covered again last week. By contrast, the market has been turned off by the Raiders in a big way. Combined, that sets this one up for the Raiders to be taking back inflated points. It also puts the Colts in the “expected to win” role as opposed to being in the more suited role of the underdog. After Luck retired, the Colts were written off by the market and media and started the season with a chip on its shoulder. That chip has been removed, at least for this week, and it makes Indy a strong fade target at precisely the right time. 

Tampa Bay +9½ -101 over L.A. RAMS

4:05 PM EST. The Rams are 3-0, but their résumé leaves a lot to be desired. A tight Week 1 win over Carolina isn't worth much now that we know how broken Cam Newton really was at that time. In Week 2, L.A. blasted New Orleans, but the Saints lost starter Drew Brees early in that contest and did not recover from that blow. Finally, last Sunday night, the Rams downed the Browns 20-13, but they were not the story coming out of that game. No, it was the bone headedness of Cleveland coach Freddie Kitchens and his horrible play calling that dominated the headlines. If the Browns had a competent coach, the result of that game could have been very different.

The Rams biggest problems lies at the league's most important position. Through three weeks, of all the pivots to make at least 45 pass attempts, Jarod Goff is ranked 26th in quarterback DVOA at Football Outsiders. For some perspective, Eli Manning, who was benched for good after Week 2, sits five spots higher on that list. Only 37 QB’s qualify at the moment, which is even more damning for Goff because Kyle Allen and Daniel Jones are very likely to pass him if they keep up their quality play in Week 4. In the shape it's in, this Rams offense cannot be spotting a price like this to a team that is capable of putting up points in bunches.

The Buccaneers kicking woes continued in what has become a yearly problem for this team regardless of who is in charge. Coach Bruce Arians said he was going to stick with Matt Gay despite his missing two extra points and the potential game-winning field goal as time expired. The Bucs would go on to blow a double digit lead and fall to 1-2 with their other loss being a 31-17 blowout at home against the 49ers. Tampa's only win was that 20-14 triumph over the Newton led Panthers on Thursday Night Football. We doubt that W is carrying much weight in the market this week. However, we are in the business of buying low and there is no doubt the Bucs are severely undervalued in Week 4. They also catch the Rams in a lookahead spot, as L.A. is on a short week with a trip to Seattle on the horizon.

The "sandwich game" is one of the oldest traps in the game but at the right time, it still has bite. The no-name opponent on the schedule between two big games. The letdown and the lookahead rolled into one and it remains a common cause of a C-game because there are so many ways for it to go wrong. The first big game can be taxing, thrilling, deflating or any other thing that big games often are, the second one can be anticipated in several different distracting ways, and then there's the meat of the sandwich itself: never feared, perpetually overlooked, disrespected and written off. After a prime time win last week against the Browns and with a prime time game up next on Thursday against Seattle, Tampa Bay is the filler and thus the Rams are the team on C-game alert. Upset possibility.

CHICAGO -2½ +105 over Minnesota

4:25 PM EST. There might not be two teams we learned less about in Week 3, as the Vikings and Bears both disposed of much lesser opposition with ease. For the Bears, their 31-15 win over the Redskins was seen by millions of people on Monday Night Football and that W has been shrugged off as a laugher. Washington turned the ball over five times and made the night very easy for Chicago, so much so that the Bears slept walked through the second half after taking a 28-0 lead into the break. The NFC North was expected to be a one-horse race with the Bears being the clear favorites, but after three weeks they are an uninspiring 2-1 and have looked average at best in a pair of high profile prime time games to start the season and their lone win was a gift from the officials in Denver. The market has seen plenty of this Bears team and because of that, their warts are far more exposed than the Vikings, who might features the biggest eyesore of all. 

Kurt Cousins is a decent quarterback. Well, as long as he's playing a team like the Raiders or Falcons with very little on the line. A division game against the Packers? Garbage. A must-win game at home against these Bears in Week 17 when Chicago had already punched its postseason ticket? Dog vomit. Cousins cannot be trusted when there are stakes of any kind, which makes this Week 4 matchup against the rivals Bears one of the tastiest on the slate. The Vikings are 2-1 with a pair of "meh" wins over Atlanta and Oakland respectively. The best game they played was a Week 2 loss in Green Bay and in all honesty, it's one they should have won. What sank the Vikes ship? Three turnovers by their $84-million man (that’s guaranteed money by the way). Asking Cousins to play error-free football in hostile enemy territory is a fools errand and a bet we cannot recommend making. If there's a worse "big game" quarterback in this league, we don't know who it is. The Bears are short-priced and offer up tremendous value here at home. 

DENVER -3½ +105 over Jacksonville 

4:25 PM EST. A prime time win does wonders for a team’s market appeal. Enter the Jaguars, who are coming off a 20-7 Thursday Night Football win over the Titans. Jacksonville is now 1-2, but the emergence of rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew II has taken Northern Florida and beyond by storm. With his headband, mustache, aviators and cutoff jeans, Minshew II has become an irresistible internet sensation. He's got "it" whatever "it" is, which makes him very easy to root for. Minshew II is fun in a league that hates the "F" word. However, now that he's gone from sixth-round draft pick to high profile starting quarterback is anyone's stock more inflated than GM2? A closer look under the hood shows that the rookie is 17th in quarterback DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) and 16th in DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) over at Football Outsiders. The latter stat gives the value of quarterback's performance compared to a replacement-level player. Minshew has been pretty good, but his press clippings outweigh his credentials after two-and-a-half games. Meanwhile, his counterpart Joe Flacco is about as uninspiring as it comes.

The Broncos are 0-3 and they have got to be hungry in this spot. Of the five winless teams remaining, Denver has allowed the fewest points, which is about the nicest thing we can come up with to say about these Broncos. It's not easy to find positive fodder for a team batting .000, but what we will say is that through three weeks, Denver has been its own worst enemy. The Broncos have turned the ball over four times in three games, which makes it really hard to win. Although it is getting raked over the coals, the Denver offense has outgained their opposition in all three games and if not for the questionable penalty against the Bronco defense in Week 2, they would have won that game against the Bears. Last week in Green Bay, the Broncos had more first downs than the Packers and owned the rock by over 11-minutes.  The difference was three turnovers, including two fumbles inside their own territory and a late interception in Green Bay's end that stopped the Broncos dead in their tracks. 

Spotting points with a team like the Broncos is not going to be an appealing proposition, but that's the point. This game opened with the Broncos as a -3½-point favorite, which is a "favorite" number because it encourages bettors to take the "hook" on a key number. With so much information available today, many in the market are trying their best to be "sharp" bettors, but there really is no such thing. Nobody can predict the outcomes of these games, which is why we are always preaching to play the value and let the chips fall where they may. Short priced favorites are real and the Broncos are just that in spades this week. The Broncos, who have the most significant home field edge in this league are barely spotting a field goal against an invader featuring a rookie pivot. This line is so disrespectful, but that’s gorgeous because it provides us with this outstanding opportunity. Guaranteed, this one will make our board unless something stupid happens from now until Sunday. 

Dallas -2½ -105 over NEW ORLEANS

8:20 PM EST. We all know the story. Dallas hosted Miami last week and looked completely uninterested in the first half before getting a kick in the rear at halftime. The ‘Boys would come out and blow away the Fish in the second half. No big deal. That win was expected. Dallas has beaten the Giants B.J. (Before Jones), Miami and the Redskins. Had Tampa’s kicker not missed a chip-shot FG last week against said Giants, those three teams that Dallas beat would be a combined 0-9. Like the Patriots, Dallas hasn’t broken a sweat yet so we really don’t know how good they are. 

The second part to this story and the more significant part is the Saints and the loss of Drew Brees. When Brees went down early against the Rams two weeks ago, New Orleans couldn’t move five yards afterward and ended up losing 27-9. Faced with the daunting ask of playing in Seattle without Brees, there were not a lot of folks that gave the Saints a chance but the team rose to the occasion behind Teddy Bridgewater and built a 27-7 going into the fourth quarter before holding on for a six-point victory. Seattle outscored the Saints 20-6 in the fourth to make the game much closer than it appeared. The Saints regained a lot of market credibility after that surprise win, which makes us instant sellers on the Saints. You see, New Orleans scored on a fumble return and a punt return. That’s 14 of their 33 points. Teddy Bridgewater passed for a mere 177 yards and rushed for 12 yards on three runs. By halftime,  Bridgewater only totaled 87 passing yards with just one completion to Michael Thomas but they connected better in the final half. Last week we wrote that Sean Payton wasn’t even sure which QB he was going to start but chose Bridgewater by process of elimination. Payton was reluctant to go with Bridgewater because he knows that Teddy has the arm strength of a wingless seagull. Every pass downfield looks like it’s on replay. Faced with a mild pass rush, Teddy looks like the town bully just told him to meet him behind school at three o’clock. This is the same QB that had his leg explode in a non-contact drill, an injury so severe it nearly led to amputation and left witnesses on the field crying and barfing. For those that bet against the Saints last week, we’re sorry to tell you that you were one week premature. This is the week to do it, after they appeared to be able to play without Brees. That market perception now allows us to get the ‘Boys at a reduced price.

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