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Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

Philadelphia +4 -106 over GREEN BAY

8:20 PM EST. The Eagles have lost favor in this market for a number of reasons including a long list of injuries and back-to-back losses. The Eagles were targeted by wagerers last week in their home game against the Lions but in the end, it was Detroit backers that were paid off. Philadelphia was an 8-point favorite when that line opened last week but by kickoff, it was down to -4½. All week, the story was about how banged up the Eagles were coming off a dismal Sunday night in Atlanta. Hell, they even skipped practice last Wednesday because, as their coach said, “We don’t have enough able bodies”. Instead, the Eagles had a walk-through last Wednesday. They looked like easy prey for the surging Lions and that's exactly how it played out, at least on the surface. A closer look shows the undermanned Eagles actually outgained the Lions by nearly 100 yards, won the time of possession by five minutes and had 22 first downs to Detroit's 16. We'll give you one guess what turned the tide in that game. Answers in? It was, of course, an 0-2 turnover margin against Philly. 

The Packers aren't just 3-0 in the standings, they 3-0 against the spread and the market has taken notice. Because we've bet Green Bay in its first three games, we've seen more Packers football than your average Cheese Head. Trust us when we tell you that now is the time to sell on this team. The Pack won an ugly game over the Bears in Week 1 by scoring 10 lousy points and getting away with it. Green Bay was then very fortunate to escape its Week 2 game with the Vikings. After taking a 21-0 lead in the first quarter, the Pack had to hang on for dear life and if not for the complete incompetence of Kirk Cousins, the Vikes would have come all the way back in that contest. Green Bay did not score again in the final three quarters and hung on for a 21-16 victory. Finally, a 26-17 win over the Broncos last Sunday is also misleading, as Denver shot itself in the hoof again and again with a trifecta of turnovers. In fact, the Packers have won the turnover battle in every one of their games, which is a big reason for their success in the standings and more importantly, against the spread. We support the hypothesis that strongly suggests turnovers are a luck-based statistic that evens out over time. A correction in that department could be coming for both clubs. 

Green Bay was an afterthought before the season began with many preseason prognostications pegging them for a third-place finish in the NFC North. Now after three games, they are favored to take home that division title. When you consider how far the injured Eagles stock has fallen, this is a perfect storm for a buy low, sell high situation. The Eagles are undervalued, as they are 0-2 in its last two games but deserved to be 2-0 while the Pack are 3-0 but have not outplayed anyone and deserve to be 0-3. Eagles outright is so damn tempting and probably worth a wager but we'll be conservative here and take the points.  

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