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Posted at 11:00 AM EST.

Cincinnati +6½ -104 over BUFFALO

1:00 PM EST. When we posted our leans last Friday, the Bengals were in our sights, but by Sunday morning, it looked like many in the market were as well. With that in mind, we pivoted off of Cincinnati and sided with the 49ers. We heard and read so much about the Bengals Sunday morning that it was a big red flag. Andy Dalton was being suggested by "sharp" daily fantasy "experts" as a value play and many felt, as we did, that the Bengals were wronged in their Week 1 one-point loss in Seattle. We underestimated how much weight that strong performance carried in the market, which made Cincy a trendy "sharp" play. Anyone that bet the Bungles on Sunday were likely disgusted with what they saw, as Dalton and his team got the doors blown off them by San Francisco. Cincinnati lost what little market credibility they had gained and now they must travel to Buffalo, which has a reputation of being a tough place to play, but don't forget that Dalton is Erie County's favorite adopted son after helping end the Bills 20-year playoff drought two seasons ago.

The Bills blasted the Giants by two touchdowns on Sunday and have seen their stock skyrocket after back-to-back wins to start the season. We are in the business of playing over and under-reactions and this price falls right in line with that mantra. Are the Bills really ready to be a touchdown favorite in this league? Many in the market questioned how Buffalo could be favored on the road last week in New York and then the Bills went out and proved oddsmakers right. However, this looks like a tough spot on many fronts. First, at 2-0 and going up against an 0-2 team, Buffalo suddenly has expectations and that’s a role they are unfamiliar with. Secondly, Buffalo has New England on deck so that has to be at least somewhat on their minds. It’s probably been years since the Bills were spotting this type of lumber to anyone and now they’re priced this high because of wins against two teams that couldn’t move five yards.

We write a lot about "bad favorites" since it's such an important concept, and every September brings plenty of ATS failures by weaker programs unaccustomed to the heavy favorite's role. The Bills were impressive in beating the Giants by 14, but in no way can they be trusted spotting this type of wood against a Cincinnati squad that will be insulted by the number and that went into Seattle in Week 1 and badly outplayed the Seahawks. This is without question an overlay.

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