Los Angeles @ CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND +4½ +100 over Los Angeles

Pinnacle +4½ +100 BET365 +4½ -105 SportsInteraction +4½ +100 5DIMES +4½ +100 888Sport +4½ -112

Posted at 10:15 AM EST and updated at 7:30 PM EST.

CLEVELAND +4½ over Los Angeles

8:20 PM EST. We are goiing to be playing this one after dinner and closer to game time, as we expect this price to rise to +4 or even +4½ now that it has come off 3. For now, it's not official but it will be after dinner and we'll update this and tweet it out once it is.

Some of the sharper sportsbooks opened with the Browns taking back a mere point while most of the market was generous enough to grant another 1½-points to Cleveland out of the gate at a notorious underdog-friendly number (+2½). Very quickly that number jumped to the Browns taking back a field goal across the board. Despite most of the market swarming to the defending NFC Champions, the sharper sportsbooks seemingly welcomed their money and this entire narrative resonates strongly with us. It compels us to take a deeper look at Cleveland heading into this prime-time match-up.

A talking point for us is market perception and how that influences the pricing of any two teams. Los Angeles and Cleveland enter into this one on contrasting sides of the spectrum. The Rams’ stock was elevated to begin the season, as they represented the NFC in the preceding Super Bowl and for 3½ quarters they were engaged in a bitter struggle with perhaps the greatest coach and quarterback in NFL history. When you pile on the toppings of the Rams being undefeated both straight-up and against the spread this season, the market perception of L.A. is that much more inflated. When we sprinkle on the cherry of the Rams routing the Saints in a “revenge game” that saw a lot of money siding with New Orleans, the zig-zag and overreaction element raises the public vantage of L.A. even further.

The same cannot be said for the Cleveland Browns, who entered into the season as one of the more hyped teams in the entire league. With Pittsburgh in a transitional phase, Cincinnati in perpetual disarray, and Baltimore not looking like Ravens teams of yesteryear, Cleveland looked good to win the AFC North and were heavily bet to do just that in pre-season future markets. That penchant carried over to opening week, where the Browns opened as a 5½-point favorite against the Titans but went onto lay a nasty egg and get its doors blown off, 43-13. Cleveland would follow that grisly result with a 23-3 rout of the New York Jets on Monday Night Football but it wasn’t a 23-3 win that carried any weight. After all, the Jets were without their starting quarterback and then their second stringer, Trevor Siemian went down early in the game with a season-ending ankle injury. Offensive operations by the Jets were not expected to be optimal. However, Cleveland struggled to create distance from themselves and Gang Green. The Browns couldn’t find the end zone until the second quarter and the Jets hung around until the game got away from them in one foul swoop late in the third. New York failed on a fourth down attempt in Cleveland’s red zone when LeVeon Bell fell half a yard short from getting the Jets a new set of downs. Had Bell converted, perhaps New York would have ended up drawing within six points of the Browns on that drive. Had the Jets kept the game conservative, they would have pulled within 10. The failed conversion attempt fed electricity to the sluggish Browns and the very next play, Wide Receiver Odell Beckham, Jr took a pass 89 yards to the house and put Cleveland up by 20. That would serve as the dagger for both sides. as neither team would score after that.

On paper, this was by no means an impressive win for Cleveland. The Jets spent the entire game operating from around their own 10-yard line. Cleveland probably should’ve won by 40 but looked almost as out of sync as the Jets. The point is that the Brownies have lost plenty of their market credibility after two weeks and so now would be the time to buy.  

The Rams will not have the benefit of playing a Carolina team with a banged up Cam Newton nor will they face a Saints team without Drew Brees for most of the game. Moreover, it is hard to see Los Angeles getting any defensive touchdowns against them overturned, as they won’t be playing this one in the City of Angels but instead in a notoriously hostile environment. Perhaps most importantly is the Cleveland is back in the role that they are used to, which is expected to lose. The Brownies have looked less than ordianry this year but this is still a very talented team that was overhyped coming into the season. Now that the hype has dwindled to near nothing, Cleveland can wear that disrepected tag they're so accustommed too and come up with a powerful performance. Cleveland has had two ugly games and the market is bailing on them. That’s one of our cues to move in hard.

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Our Pick

CLEVELAND +4½ +100 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.98)