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Posted Friday, September 20 at 1:30 PM EST

NFL 2019

Week 3

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criterion we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday.

We’re intent on providing our readers with the best possible selections and doing so on Sunday instead of Friday just makes more sense. We made that change last year and ended up going 81-57. Again, we’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST.

WEEK 3 

Baltimore +6½ +107 over KANSAS CITY

1:00 PM EST. There is going to be a week when these Ravens are going to be overvalued, but this isn't the spot. Baltimore got a good scare, as did anyone who picked them in their survivor pools when the Cardinals were driving in the fourth quarter down just six as a 13-point pooch. When you combine that effort with that blowout of the disgusting Dolphins in Week 1, Baltimore's résumé through two weeks does not look overly impressive. However, the Ravens have the league's second-ranked defensive unit and the top offense. In their two games this season, the Ravens have owned the rock averaging nearly 39 minutes a game in time of possession. They've limited their mistakes with a plus-three turnover margin and Baltimore has 57 first downs to their opponents 27. It's hard not to get the impression that Baltimore is being disrespected here. Sure, the Ravens take a big step up in competition, but so do their opponents.

The Chiefs have picked right up where they left off last season and despite several injuries on the offensive side of the ball, that unit is still putting up big numbers. This price suggests that Vegas doesn't care who suits up for Kansas City and with a proven track record of applying the "next man up" philosophy, we doubt the market will sour on the Chiefs either. Spotting this number with Kansas City is going to look enticing, but this team was priced in a similar range at both Jacksonville and Oakland. While those were both road games, does a change of venue makeup for the considerable upgrade in competition? The Chiefs home-field advantage has been a major talking point this week, as they have gone 8-1 at home with Patrick Mahomes as the starter with their only defeat coming last year to the Chargers, who went for it all on a game-winning 2-point conversion. If the Ravens' quality of opposition is being criticized, the Chiefs should be scrutinized as well. Are wins over the Jaguars and Raiders worth writing home about? Mahomes seems to set a new record every week with his 278 passing yards in one quarter against Oakland being the latest all-time number to fall. However, Baltimore's Lamar Jackson is setting records of his own after becoming the first player ever to pass for 250+ yards and rush for 120+. With a total of 55, oddsmakers expect this one to be a shootout. Can Jackson go throw-for-throw with Mahomes? Unlikely, but Kansas City's porous defense is bad enough to keep the Ravens in this game. A confident Baltimore team with a bit of swag to them can easily score 14 straight at some point in this game. That makes them very playable taking back points.

N.Y. Jets +22 -110 over NEW ENGLAND

1:00 PM EST. If you just looked at the final score, it would appear the Patriots had no mercy for the ill-equipped Dolphins in their 43-0 drubbing of the Fish down in Miami. However, it wasn't the Patriots fault the Dolphins would have a hard time competing against the Dillon Panthers. In fact, the Pats tried their best to keep it close, as they were up just 13-0 at half time and 23-after three quarters, but a 20-point fourth was aided greatly by a pair of Dolphin passing blunders that would lead to 14 points off those turnovers. Those interceptions were just two of the four picks that Fish pivots would throw on Sunday. Anyone that was hoping Miami would be able to not totally embarrass were badly mistaken. Now, the Patriots are spotting an incredibly inflated price because of that 40+ point victory combined with the Jets being without a QB, but do the banged-up Jets deserve the same kind of treatment from oddsmakers as their foul division mates in Miami?

The Jets have fielded some bad football teams over the years. Those teams have featured some pretty putrid quarterbacks as well from Mark Sanchez to Glenn Foley, Brooks Bollinger to Bubby Brister and even Tim Tebow, but none of those teams were taking back a price like this. Over the last five seasons, the Jets have been a big pooch in this AFC East "rivalry multiple times, (+14½, +13, +17, +17), but never once did that number creep into the 20+ point range. Is practice squadder turned No. 1 quarterback Luke Falk really any worse than some of the most putrid pivots to dress for Gang Green? Falk is under the microscope for the two awful quarters he played in relief on Monday Night Football, but is it really all his fault? The Jets had already been shaken by the news that Sam Darnold was out with mono and his replacement Trevor Siemian was then carried off the field with a gruesome ankle injury. We wouldn't blame the Jets players if they decided at that point to just try and survive to fight another day. We don't blame anyone that watched Miami get crushed by the Pats for having no fear when it comes to laying this kind of lumber, but this game is a total pass for us. It's very hard to bet either side and therefore, it will not make our board. Hold a gun to our head and we’re taking the points.

Miami +21½ -106 over DALLAS

1:00 PM EST. The most massive spread in NFL history was a game between the 49ers and Falcons during Joe Montana's prime. The Niners were 23-point favorites in that contest played 32-years ago, but the Dirty Birds, who were loaded with replacement players still managed to cover the number in a 25-17 defeat. Now, these Cowboys, as a 3+ touchdown chalk aren't even the biggest favorite on the board in Week 3.

The Cowboys have looked like world-beaters after back-to-back win and covers against the Giants and Redskins respectively, but those two clubs both appear to be headed for a high draft position, as are the Fish. Until they play some quality competition, we're not going to know how good Dallas really is. It's worth noting that the Cowboys will play on Sunday Night Football in Week 4 against the Saints, which makes this a potential look-ahead spot. The Cowboys aren't likely to lose this game, but a win and a cover are two different beasts.

With the Dolphins looking more like your local junior varsity squad than a pro football team, we doubt the market will blink at this inflated price. We saw many Twitter 'cappers on the Fish Sunday morning and it was overwhelming enough to keep Miami from making our slate. Do you think anybody that bet the Dolphins in Week 2 are going to be eager to do so again in Week 3? We're not going to break down the X's and O's of the Fish's first two games as both were over before you could grab your popcorn. Anyone that bet Miami and watched that game against New England had to be disgusted, as it appeared much more like an aggressive game of paddy cake than an NFL football game. The Pats took their foot off the gas and still won by more than 40-points. We don't blame anyone that doesn't want to get involved with the Dolphins, but value is value and this is a totally inflated number. Hold your nose and take the Fish.

L.A. CHARGERS -3½ -105 over Houston

4:25 PM EST. The Texans  opened the year with a two-point loss in New Orleans (bad timing as it ends up) and then barely got past the visiting Jaguars. However, that prime time game against the Saints was damn impressive that left a lasting mark on the market. Houston has weapons and they were all on full display in Week 1. From what we’re reading, hearing and sensing, the Texans did not lose much credibility in their fortunate victory last week as a -7½-point choice. A win is a win and besides, the Jags are no pushovers.

Our next challenge is to try and figure out why the Bolts are -3½ at a time when their stock is so low.  What we know for sure is that the Chargers lost to Detroit last week. We also know they were lucky to beat the Colts in Week 1. Additionally, the Bolts are 0-2 against the number and that’s a big turnoff for gamblers. Anyone that bet San Diego Los Angeles in Week 1, sort of got backdoored but still, Adam Vanateiri missed some easy points that would’ve assured the Colts covered had he hit them. In Week 2, as a small favorite against the perceived weak Lions, San Diego left the market with an even bitter taste in their mouths and now the oddsmakers hung a hook on a key number like 3 to make it look enticing at +3½.

We don’t care about X’s and O’s. If you want a breakdown of that, there are 20 million DFS sites that will tell you what should happen. We care about recognizing value, market perception and how each game is priced by oddsmakers attempts at getting you to play the wrong side. That extra hook the oddsmakers hung on 3 is just enough to push us over to the Bolts. They could have made this line -3 in an attempt to balance the books more evenly but they didn’t. There are underdog prices or numbers and there are favorite prices too. 2½ is an underdog number while -3½ is a favorite number. In other words, one should be more confident playing a favorite at -3½ than at -2½ because both prices are designed to entice the bettor into a false security. Oddsmakers could have opened with the Bolts at -3 and not swayed a single wager. That tells us all we need to know about which is the “right side” to get behind. We don’t love it and therefore this one likely won’t make our board.

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