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Posted Friday, September 13 at 2:30 PM EST

NFL 2019

Week 2

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criterion we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday.

We’re intent on providing our readers with the best possible selections and doing so on Sunday instead of Friday just makes more sense. We made that change last year and ended up going 81-57. Again, we’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST.

WEEK 2 

Week 2 update, posted at 11:00 AM on Sunday morning

One of the reasons we now post our plays on Sunday is because a lot of things can happen between Friday and Sunday and it gives us the luxury of switching teams. As you can see below, we switched from Cincinnati to San Francisco and are doing the same with Baltimore. Here is here quick upadate on both.

We originally wrote:

Arizona +13 over Baltimore but are now switching to  

BALTIMORE -13 -101 over Arizona

1:00 PM EST. What the market saw last week after the Arizona/Detroit game ran late and was the only game that hadn’t gone final yet was Arizona out-scoring the Lions 18-0 in the fourth quarter. What said market didn’t see was how bad Arizona was for three quarters. It would appear to us that the Lions took their foot off the gas and got caught. Kyler Murray played just one year of college and now makes his first NFL road trip after looking horrible last week for 3 quarters. Baltimore rolls again.

We originally wrote:

CINCINNATI -1½ over San Fran  but are now switching to 

San Francisco -105 over CINCINNATI

1:00 PM EST. On Friday, we targeted the Bengals but today we are changing gears for a few reasons. One, we’re not comfortable with the discrepancy in line movements among several different books. The line has not been stable one bit. Secondly, the outlets that influence people the most, all have the Bengals picked for the same reasons. To us, that’s a red flag. 

So many people took the Bucs to beat the 49ers last week but if one watched that game, one could not be impressed with the 49ers. The impression the 49ers left was to bet against them again. The 31-17 final score was misleading, as the offense never really got on track, they just didn't make nearly as many mistakes as the Buccaneers did. They lost Tevin Coleman to a high-ankle sprain too. Facing the Bengals won't be any easier, and they cannot rely on two free touchdowns from their defense. Nobody watched San Francisco last week and felt good about betting them this week. The Buccaneers have featured a bottom-five defense for several years and yet Jimmy Garoppolo was unable to connect with his wideouts. It is rare that a team wins by 14 points and needs to forget about what just happened.  

On the flip side, the Bengals should’ve beaten Seattle. Andy Dalton turned in one of his better efforts - 418 yards and two scores in Seattle. He threw the ball 51 times. Cincinnati went into Seattle last week with nothing to lose. They were loose and played well but expectations are different this week. The Bengals will have pressure on them to win. Andly Dalton lost a couple of fumbles, threw one interception, and was sacked five times. The rushing offense never got on track. We had to take a step back and re-evaluate this game because the 49ers are such a hard sell. Rebounding from loss in a game you clearly should have won is difficult. It is even more difficult when said team is weak, like the Bengals were projected to be. Is Cincinnati so much better than those projections and how much of that near miss was just Week 1 weirdness are two questions that one better ask themselves before pulling the trigger on Cincinnati. When so many folks are touting the Bengals, that’s our cue to back way off.

DETROIT +115 over L.A. Chargers 

1:00 PM EST. The Chargers blew a 15-point second-half lead in Week 1 at home to the Colts, but it doesn't appear they've lost much standing in the market. Perhaps if Los Angeles' "other team" were playing what some would see as a much more formidable foe, the Chargers might be a less appealing play, but this trip to Detroit looks like a gift. The Chargers had high preseason expectations and are considered a Super Bowl contender, yet they are spotting a minimal number to a Lions team that has little to no market value after giving up a double-digit lead of its own. 

For Detroit, last year's disastrous offense, injury-ravaged personnel, and Matt Stafford's back ailment are in the past. A new system, albeit one that prefers to run, gives Stafford a balanced approach that is hard to defend. Under the Jim Bob Cooter offense, everyone knew what was coming. Stafford has weapons, even if his protection is questionable and for three quarters last Sunday in the desert, the Lions looked really, really good. Stafford hit T.J. Hockenson with a 23-yard touchdown strike and went up 24-6 to start the fourth quarter, but then the Motor City Lions took their foot off the gas. Once that switch is flipped, it's nearly impossible to get it back. The Cardinals blew the doors off Detroit after that and the Lions would give it all that 15-point lead back by the final whistle. The Lions and Cards then subjected the NFL world to 15-minutes of lackluster football in overtime and we doubt that effort will endear them to this market. That tie is being treated like a loss for the Lions and a win the Red Birds. The final result was disappointing, but we liked a lot of what we say from the Lions. Stafford's arm is as lively as ever (he threw for 385 yards and three touchdowns in Week 1) and he belongs in the upper echelon of QB's, but he's not priced as such and therefore neither are the Lions. 

WASHINGTON +6 -101 over Dallas 

1:00 PM EST. The Cowboys plastered the Giants on Fox's America's Game of the Week and that high-profile victory laid to rest any doubts about Dak Prescott, who threw for three touchdowns, and former holdout Zeke Elliott, who ran hard for 53 yards and a touchdown on his limited 13 carries. Dallas easily covered as 7-point chalk, but they, like many of last Sunday's big winners were aided greatly by gobbling up two of the G-Men's three fumbles. The Cowboys are a popular team in the market and carry the "America's Team" moniker for a good reason. When the 'Boys are rolling, it doesn't take long for the market to jump on the bandwagon. Dallas’ looked near flawless in that win while the unveiling of the new offense by OC Kellen Moore couldn't have gone much better. Again, Ezekiel Elliott had some rust, but that didn't matter when Dak Prescott set the opening day record for the Cowboys with 405 passing yards. A big Cowboys win and easy cover always resonates. 

There's a reason they say the game is, "four quarters," and Washington proved it on Sunday after blowing a 17-point lead in its opener in Philadelphia. As Redskins backers in that game, we has to sweat it out, as the Eagles went up 32-20 with just over three minutes to go before the 'Skins were able to sneak in the back door with a late TD. Anyone that backed Washington in that game likely wasn't impressed that their bet was in doubt after going to the front by almost 30 points when you include the 10-point takeback. Were it not for two 50+ yard touchdowns by DeSean Jackson, the 'Skins could have won. Case Keenum did not look out of place in burgundy. His 380 yards passing was a real eye-opener, but this market and media focuses on wins and losses only. At the end of the day, Washington still lost, they blew a 17-point lead, and they covered by getting a nothing TD in the final seconds. That doesn’t sound pretty at all and now injury will force the ‘Skins to rely on Adrian Peterson again. Most notably is that the revamped wide receivers look like another much-needed upgrade. Washington is getting bad press while the ‘Boys are being hailed as a true contender after a completely inspired effort. 

Look it, we’re not crazy about this game one bit. To us, it feels like Baltimore/Miami last week when Baltimore looked too easy and answered the bell with a blowout. To us, Dallas looks like the sucker bet of the week because it, too, looks easy. Derrius Guice only gained 18 yards on 10 carries for Washington before injuring his meniscus. He’s out. The dysfunctional Redskins made the curious move to make Adrian Peterson a healthy scratch for the game for the first time in his career. That didn't settle well with Peterson or his teammates. Now they have to turn back to him, so kind of awkward. We don’t like the undercurrent surrounding the Redskins, but we also know to be very cautious when approaching games like this in which the media, market and everyone in between are touting the Cowboys.  

MIAMI +18½ -107 over New England  

1:00 PM EST. What the f**k can be said about the Dolphins after their Week 1 no show against the Ravens? Is there a number big enough that bookmakers could set that would have you gladly bet your money on these dregs? This line opened at -14½ and the market pounced to drive the price up to the inflated number you see today. A case for the Fish cannot be made based on their performance on the field, but that game was over at 28-0 just over a minute into the second quarter and the Dolphins were on autopilot after that. The Fish have taken a ton of heat this week for "tanking," and it's hard to argue against that opinion if one has it, but we are not interested in the headlines and gossip. We are in the business of buying low and selling high, which makes this game with the Patriots the perfect storm. 

New England did what it always seems to do on Sunday Night Football and that was kick ass. Anyone that chose the Steelers to get it done last Sunday felt sick. By halftime, those tickets were garbage and anyone that faded the Patriots likely won't be so eager to do it again regardless of the opposition. The Pats may win this game by 30 and if they do hats off to then but there is no doubt that this price is greatly inflated. It's also worth noting that a branch off the Bill Belichick coaching tree, Brian Flores, now coaches the Fish. Unless there's major heat, see Eric Mangini for instance, Big Bill doesn't usually like to embarrass his guys. We know it’s hard to erase from one’s mind the dysfunction that Miami displayed last week but try your best because in terms of true value, there is only one choice here and it’s not the visitor.

If this game was played in Week 1, New England likely would’ve been the -9 to -10-point range. Maybe less. Last year in Week 1, Buffalo lost 47-3 to Baltimore. In Week 2, the Bills were down 28-0 to San Diego and looked like the worst dregs to ever suit up in NFL gear. In Week 3, after looking like the worst dregs ever, Buffalo went into Minnesota as a 17-point underdog and won outright. We’re not comparing the Bills to the Fish or the Vikes to the Pats, but we are comparing the situations. Buffalo was a 17-point ROAD underdog while the Dolphins are a 19-point HOME pooch. We cannot overstate how over-inflated this price is. We have no fucking idea whether New England will win by 14 or 40 but we have a clear idea of where the value lies. This price should be in the -10 to -12-point range. The books have to protect itself from being overexposed in teasers on New England, which also inflates an already overinflated price. Value in the NFL doesn’t get much better than this so plug your nose and then read about it in the morning. 

Jacksonville +8½ -101 over HOUSTON 

1:00 PM EST. The Jaguars tried to address the franchises biggest need and signed former Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles to be their starter and that experiment lasted less than a quarter, as Foles was carted off the field with a broken left clavicle. There is no timeline for his return, which means the Jags will have to turn to rookie pivot Gardner Minshew, who was pretty damn good in relief after throwing for two touchdowns on 22-of-25 passing for 275 yards. Considering they lost their prized free agent; Jacksonville did not wilt despite playing the mighty Chiefs. The 40-26 final will make it easy to write off the Jags as the same old subpar side, but they held their own, for the most part, against one of the most dynamic offensive units in the league and didn't quit when Foles went down. A week to prepare with Minshew at the helm should serve this team well, especially since they catch a Texans’ side that went through an emotional rollercoaster of their own. 

That was a hell of a game Monday night and despite the loss, we doubt the Texans lost much of the high standing they had in the market coming into that game with the Saints. Where it counts, at the window, Houston cashed easily as a 6½-point pooch, but now they are favored by more than a converted touchdown. That 14-point swing is a big one and we have to wonder what the Texans have left in the tank after thinking they won that game in New Orleans with less than a minute to play. Instead, Houston's defensive coaches called some of the worst prevent defense we've ever seen and allowed the Saints to get into field goal range to kick the game-winning field goal. It was the most exciting finish to a game in Week 1 and it was seen by millions. Lost in all of the excitement, however, is the fact that the Texas supposedly stout defense gave up a double-digit half time lead and surrendered 27 points combined in the third and fourth quarters. In the final moments the Texans went from high (game-tying TD), low (missed the extra point), high (penalty on the kick) and then the lowest of lows when Wil Lutz's 57-yard game-winning kick split the uprights. It was a wildly emotional game that the entire football world saw it. Now, the Texans have to turnaround on a short week to play a hungry division rival.  

When is the last time you saw a rookie enter in his first NFL action and complete 88% of his throws? It hasn’t happened before Minshew’s 22-for-25 performance. Regardless of whether Minshew deserves a start in Week 2, the rookie earned a roster spot, not to mention the great respect of his teammates.  

It will be at least Week 11 before we see Nick Foles again, and if Minshew continues to play well, does the journeyman have a job when he returns? This offense has weapons, and Minshew showed the game isn’t too big for him through poised play. The recipe for an upset is here, the points are inflated and we’re on it.

PITTSBURGH -3½ -107 over Seattle 

1:00 PM EST. There might not be another team on the board that we like to bounce back in Week 2 more than these Steelers. Pittsburgh was embarrassed in a very high-profile game on Sunday Night Football. Twitter was loaded with jokes, memes and GIFs that all poked fun at the troubles that the Black and Gold had with the Patriots in that 33-3 drubbing. We're not even going to break that Sunday nighter down because you either bet it, watched it or heard about how ugly it was and trust us, it was U-G-L-Y. Head coach Mike Tomlin was rightfully roasted for kicking a field goal when his team was down 20 from the one-yard line. Anyone that backed the Steelers on Sunday night (based on the line movement, the market pounded Pitt) is not going to be eager to put their hard-earned money down on Tomlin or this team in Week 2, even if it's against a squad that also struggled in its opener. 

The Seahawks got all they could handle from the lowly Bengals on Sunday and if Cincinnati could have got a bounce, it would have won that game by 20. Seriously, we've never seen a guy with a horseshoe further up his ass than Pete Caroll. Even back to his USC days, all this guy has done is chomp his gum and get every break imaginable. Russell Wilson was outgained by Andy Dalton 418 yards to 196, but in the all-important turnover battle, the Hawks recovered three of four Cinci fumbles. Unlike the Steelers, not many tuned into the Seahawks subpar performance. Unless you were local to either market or sweating out a survivor play, you were likely watching RedZone or Cowboys/Giants, which was nationally televised. Because we bet the Bengals and had a few money lines parlays working, we watched much more of that game than we'd care to admit. Trust us when we tell you the Seahawks looked like garbage on both sides of the ball. Running back Chris Carson is making fantasy headlines this week because he was the most targeted member of the Seattle offense on Sunday. There's a reason for that; the Bengals were all over the Seahawks receivers on every possession. Russell Wilson didn't even try to run and instead just dumped the ball to Carson, who accounted for over half (21-of-33) of his team's offensive touches. Seattle lost the time of possession by over 10 minutes and it only had 12 first downs to the Bengals 22. The Steelers are taking all of the heat this week for their pitiful performance while the Seahawks equally pitiful performance is flying under the radar. Pittsburgh is a short price here based on what happened last Sunday night in New England and now it’s our job to figure out if Pittsburgh just had a bad game or are they really as bad as they looked. We’re pretty confident that the Seachickens are as bad as they look and we’ll check the temperature again on Sunday and decide whether or not this game will make our board.  

Indianapolis +3½ -110 over TENNESSEE  

1:00 PM EST. The Titans brought much grief to the Browns and their backers in Week 1, as Tennessee ran roughshod in Northern Ohio. That 30-point beatdown was tied for the second-highest win margin of the day and while a 43-13 victory looks good on paper, the Titans weren't nearly as dominant as the final score would suggest. On the stat sheet, the Titans barely edged the Browns in first downs 21-to-19 and lost the time of possession by a minute. Tennessee had 339 total yards of offense to Cleveland's 344 and the return games were nearly even as well with the Titans posting 116 return yards to the Browns 121. With so much being almost equal, it doesn't take long to figure out it was Baker Mayfield's three interceptions that made the difference. The Browns imploded in the fourth quarter and the Titans ran up the score in what was just a two-point game with two minutes to go in the third frame. Now the Titans go from a 5½ point pooch to a field goal favorite based on last week’s upset win. The Titans also have a short week ahead, as they'll be featured in primetime on Thursday Night Football, which makes this date with the Colts a potential look-ahead spot.  

Who has prime time spots this week? Carolina and Tampa already played theirs. Cleveland and the Jets play Monday. On Sunday night, it’ll be Eagles/Falcons. What do all six of those Week 2 prime time teams have in common besides being featured in prime time? Think about for a second before reading on.  What they have in common is that all six, Carolina, Tampa, Philadelphia, Atlanta, the Brownies and the Jets, failed to cover in Week 1 ahead of their Week 2 prime time spots. Playing in prime time is a big deal to all these players and coaches, as not only is the entire universe tuned in but so, too, is every player and coach in this league on every other team.  

The Colts had a turbulent offseason with the sudden departure of Andrew Luck, but there is a reason this team was picked to win the AFC South prior to that news. Indianapolis still features one of the best offensive lines in the league and their effort was on full display Sunday. Despite the 30-24 loss to the Chargers, the Colts were able to rack up the yards on the ground, as Marlon Mack went off for 174 yards on 25 attempts. Jacoby Brissett did not look out of place after completing 78% of his passes for two touchdowns. The Colts outscored the Chargers 18-7 in the second half to force overtime but could not finish the job in the final frame. Had Adam Vinatieri been able to hit an extra point or 30-yard field goal, the Colts likely would’ve won. Tennessee was not as good as its final score would have you believe while the Colts are better than their final score would indicate. The Colts remain undervalued again this week because of the perceived drop off at the league's most important position. Until the market corrects itself or realizes that the Colts are still pretty damn tough, we have to keep riding them until further notice.  

Kansas City -7 -103 over OAKLAND 

4:25 PM EST. The Chiefs won 40-26 playing one of the best defenses in their stadium, so it should get higher scoring from here on out. In other words, 40 was a power outage. The Raiders beat the Broncos and seemed to be genuinely happy just to not talk about Antonio Brown. We're not going to take anything away from Oakland, as they looked damn good on both sides of the ball. The Raiders punted just twice and their defense held the Broncos to a single major that didn't come in until late in the final frame. There was a big audience for that late game, as ratings were up 25% over last year in the early contest with the point being that Oakland’s impressive win did not go unnoticed.  Any heat the Raiders were taking for the Antonio Brown situation certainly faded in light of his recent legal troubles. The Oakland brass actually look like geniuses for cutting bait before that shoe dropped. The reality is, they likely got really luck to avoid what appears to be a legal mess. 

Chiefs nation and their backers were on edge when reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes went into the trainer's tent early in their game with the Jaguars on Sunday. Mahomes emerged and returned to the game although his ankle was heavily taped. The Kansas City offense wouldn't make it out unscathed, as star receiver, Tyreek Hill left with a knee injury and will miss up to at least a month.  

We hate spotting significant road points in a divisional matchup like this one between two hated rivals but we’re going to trust that the Raiders took an emotional dump last week. Oakland was NFL headline news for all the wrong reasons the entire preseason and even before that. This was a team that just wanted to get on the field and let their play do all the talking. They played their hearts out for 60 minutes as if to send a “F-YOU” message to AB. The challenge is to pinpoint the inevitable crash down from a bad football team and attack and we’re going to target this as the week that Oakland reveals that it belongs with the other dregs in the league.  

L.A. RAMS -2 over New Orleans

4:25 PM EST. The Saints won their home opener with a thrilling, last-second 58-yard field goal. The Rams held off a fourth-quarter comeback by the Panthers and won by three points. The Saints won this Week 9 matchup 45-35 but later lost in the NFC Championship.  That was the infamous no-call penalty that led to an NFL rule book change to challenge for non-call pass interference. The Saints figure to be a little spent or drained from their dramatic win on Monday night. However, there is also a lot of revenge motivation for them after being denied the chance to advance to the Super Bowl and lose to the Patriots. 

There are a lot of moving parts in this one and quite frankly, we went back and forth between taking the points or spotting them and we’re still on the fence. We’ll see how it plays out between now and Sunday before we give a recommendation on this one but either way, it’s unlikely to make our board unless something changes. For now, we’ll choose the Rams but that is subject to change. 

ATLANTA +115 over Philadelphia 

8:25 PM EST. DeSean Jackson turned the clock back on Sunday in his return to Philadelphia with a three-touchdown performance including a pair of his signature long catches for majors. On the stat sheet, it was as good as it gets, but there was a damn good reason the Eagles were forced to chuck it downfield the second half of that game. The reason is that they were stuck 17-0 to the Redskins. While the Eagles were able to make up for their slow start in the second half, there has to be some concern about how they got into such a hole against a team like Washington. The Philly defense gave up 380 yards to Case Keenum, who is no "gunslinger." Most telling about the Eagles first half against the 'Skins was that they did not turn the ball over, they just flat out got outplayed by what many in the market consider to be a lousy football team. If the Eagles put themselves behind the eight-ball like that down in Atlanta, the Falcons might not be so forgiving.  

The Dirty Birds day in Minnesota was over before it could begin, as they shot themselves in the foot again and again. The Falcons lost the turnover battle 3-0 and they were never a threat to win the game, as the Vikings went up 14-0 before the fans could get their popcorn and make their way to their seats. It was 21-0 at halftime and 28-0 headed to the final frame. There, the Falcons posted 12 garbage points on a pair of touchdowns. They failed to convert both of their 2-point conversion attempts. We're not sure how much appeal Atlanta is going to have in this market, as rumors swirl about the future of head coach Dan Quinn. It's been speculated by the talking heads that he'll get his walking papers if the Dirty Birds lay an egg here in prime time. These situations usually go one of two ways. Either the players catch wind of the situation and submarine their bench boss, or the team comes out hyper-focused and plays its collective ass off for the skipper. With many of these Falcons team leaders like Matt Ryan having their greatest success under Quinn, we suspect the Falcons will fall into the latter. This team is being disrespected by oddsmakers and the market alike after that no-show in Minny, which makes this the perfect spot for a bounce back. Falcons for the win. 

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