Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:45 AM EST.
6:40 PM EST. One could spot -3 and some extra vig but we’re going to “sell” some points and take back a small price because the Chiefs are the true bargain here. What you’re going to hear from all the talking heads today is this:
In weather below 30 degrees, counting for regular season and playoff games, the Patriots are an impressive 28-6. On the road in these types of games, Brady is 8-3, throwing for 21 touchdowns and four interceptions. You are going to get it pounded into your head about how damn good the Patriots are in cold weather and how that gives them an edge. To that we say, FOOEY!
That’s all just useless fodder. Do you really think that it matters what Brady did 14 years ago or a decade ago in a cold weather game or two? Of course it doesn’t. Brady was in his prime for many of those cold weather games and over time, “trends” will develop. Some will stick out more than others and this is one of those useless trends that sticks out. What about last week in cold weather against the Chargers? We say we told you all about last week, when we strongly suggested that the Chargers were spent and in a horrible and nearly impossible situational spot. We’re going to erase last week’s Patriots win right out of our minds and focus on the here and now. Kansas City is not in a bad spot, it is the better team by a wide margin, it is at home and it has every conceivable advantage. Just to let you know, in road playoff games in his career, Brady has thrown eight touchdowns and eight interceptions.
It would be impossible to argue that of the four teams left in the playoffs, the Pats have the least talented playmakers and it’s not even close. They have that short passing game that they’re forced to utilize because the protection is not strong. They are not a great offense and that matters, especially on the road. Speaking of the road, the Patriots were 3-5 this year as opposed to 9-0 at home. New England’s three road wins? At Chicago, 38-31 in a game the Patriots needed more than a few bounces, at Buffalo and at New York Jets. Now let’s have a look at the Patriots road losses. They were torched by Jacksonville, 31-20. The very next week in a bounce back spot, they got buried by the Lions, 26-10. The Pats next road loss came at Tennessee, where they also got buried, this time, 34-10. They would close it out with road losses in Miami (34-33) in that miracle Dolphins win and finally they would lose to Pittsburgh 17-10. You may have noticed that they scored 10 lousy points on three separate occasions and you may have also noticed that some pathetic offenses put up some crooked numbers on that defense. If the Titans, Jags, Fish, and Lions toyed with them, one can only guess what Andy Reid and THIS offense has in store for them.
Every team in this league’s offensive efficiency decreases when they leave their home stadium and New England does not have the offensive talent to overcome that. The proof was in their body or work on the road this season. You don’t need us to tell you about K.C’s offense. It’s well documented that this is the most efficient offense in the league. Now throw in a big edge to the Chiefs in defensive line, pass rush and of course weapons and there you have it. Last week’s Patriots’ win has set us up here to spot an extremely beatable number and as far as bargains go, this is probably the biggest bargain of the playoffs thus far and we’re not going to miss out. You shouldn’t either.
Note: We like the Chiefs so much more than we like the early game so we’re going to pass on that one with a slight lean to the Saints -3.
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KANSAS CITY -3½ +111 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.22)