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Posted at 11:30 PM EST.

4:35 PM EST. Be very clear that we’re in the overreaction, underpriced and overvalued business and in that regard, the Chiefs must be played here after Indianapolis’ dominating performance last week in Houston. From a week-to-week basis, the NFL provides the biggest overreactions because every sports bettor in North America watches every minute of every playoff game and what they saw last week from the Colts is hard to ignore while the Chiefs didn’t play. Andrew Luck methodically drove the Colts down field for a TD on the opening drive and that was it. The Texans would never get any closer, as Indy controlled the game throughout. The final score was 21-7 but it felt more like 41-7 to anyone watching.

We like the Colts and we need them to win this game because of a wager I made around halfway through the season but that was a "value bet" and it is not going to cloud my judgement.

 It does not matter what we or anyone else likes, as it is all about value. A close look reveals that the Colts played a slew of horrible offense this year almost every week. They did not face a top-10 offense the entire year so that “great” defense that you’re hearing and reading about is highly misleading and very situational. Among the offenses that the Colts played were Buffalo, Washington, the Giants, Cincinnati, Dallas, Philadelphia, the Jets, Jacksonville twice, Tennessee twice and Miami without Ryan Tannehill. That’s 12 games right there. Holding down Deshaun Watson is less impressive considering that he only had one receiver and the Colts faced him three times this year. The best offense that Indianapolis faced this year was New England’s and the Patriots scored 38 points in a 38-24 win. Cinci scored 34 points on the Colts and even the Jets hung 42 on them in one game. They’ll now face the best offense that they’ve faced all season long by a country mile and frankly, that Colts’ defense is not battle tested enough to face the #1 offense in virtually every key category.   

Not only will the Colts have to face the #1 offense, they’ll have to do it on the road in frigid Kansas City where it is below zero today and there is a winter storm warning in effect. All of a sudden a domed team that plays in nearly perfect conditions every week will step into uncomfortable conditions.  

Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes is a revelation. Simply put, in NFL history, there was only one QB that threw for more than 5,000 yards. Peyton Manning in his 15th year at the age of 37. Now there are two. Mahomes threw for more than 300 yards in 10 games. Here is where the Patrick Mahomes difference is felt. The Chiefs have not won a home playoff game since 1993 despite being heavy favorites in some like last year when they were favored by eight over the Titans and lost 22-21 after leading 21-0. This time around they have a QB and they’re priced like they don’t. That's our prompt to step in on the chalk.

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