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Cleveland @ BALTIMORE
Cleveland +6 +102 over BALTIMORE

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +6½ +102 BET 365 +6½ -105 SportsInteraction +6½ -105 5DIMES +6½ +100

Posted at 11:30 AM EST.

4:25 PM EST. One thing is simple and is of the utmost priority: if the Ravens (9-6) win over the Browns (7-7-1), they are in the postseason. Everything after that is secondary. At the same time, if the Pittsburgh Steelers lose (8-6-1), the Ravens are also in the postseason. If the Ravens lose and the Pittsburgh Steelers win, Baltimore will not be in the playoffs no matter what happens in any other result, including the Colts and Titans on Sunday night. That’s the setup and it opens the door for us with a great opportunity.

The "must win" angle is in play here for many in this market but not for us. Instead, we'll be fading these teams all day long because the price on them is 100% inflated. There is no question that the price is inflated here so don't be afraid to use the Brownies in some money-line parlays too.

The Ravens' stock is soaring after a dominant 22-10 road victory over the Chargers that actually flatters the home side, as Baltimore outgained L.A. by 163 yards, won the time of possession and had more first downs. Lamar Jackson outgunned Philip Rivers. That the Ravens went on the road and won by double digits against a “contender” will resonate in this market, as it was in a feature spot last Saturday night. Again, Baltimore is in a classic "must win" spot here and there is also a scenario where Baltimore finishes as high as second or as low as sixth, but at the end of the day it's a "win and you're in" situation for the Ravens.

For all the hype Baltimore is getting, there is a major problem with that team and it's Lamar Jackson. He can run like the wind, but he can't throw the ball, which will eventually catch up to him at some point. Teams’ will eventually force Jackson to beat them with his arm, which he simply cannot do. Furthermore, there is a massive difference between spotting significant points like the Ravens are here and taking back significant points like they were last week in L.A. against the Chargers. Incidentally, we pointed out last week the vulnerable spot that the Chargers were in last week against these Ravens so the result of that game does not resonate with us one bit. It was expected. Baltimore has won five of six but it's not as pretty as it sounds. They beat Cinci by 3, Tampa, 20-12, Atlanta, 26-16, The Chargers last week in the perfect spot after Bolts won over KC and finally Oakland. When most teams are scoring 35 or more on Atlanta Cincinnati and Tampa, Lamar Jackson and friends are barely able to muster 20. Lamar Jackson is not the kind of QB one wants to spot signifuant points with.

The Browns have won five of six and are pushing to end Gregg Williams' tenure this season to 6-1. Baker Mayfield is playing at an All-Pro level, and the Browns are playing as well as any team in the league. Mayfield threw for 342 yards when the Ravens visited Cleveland way back in Week 5 and that’s when the team was playing under Hue Jackson’s conservative approach and losing. The motivation to win is high for the Browns, as they can knock the Ravens out completely and end this season with a winning record to record the greatest turnaround in NFL history after going 0-17 last year. This is without question one of the best value bets of the season, as we get one of the hottest teams in the league at an inflated price because the team they’re playing just won in prime time against a contender by double digits and are in a “must win” situation.

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Our Pick

Cleveland +6 +102 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.04)

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