Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:30 AM EST
8:20 PM EST. The Seahawks overtime loss in San Francisco last week was sandwiched between two high profile prime time games, thus we can forgive that relatively minor setback last Sunday. A closer look shows that Seattle did outgain the 49ers, it had more first downs and won the time of possession, but the Seahawks were behind the eight ball early after Richie James Jr. returned a Sebastian Janikowski kickoff to the house. That play was a big momentum shifter, as the Seahawks had scored a major on the games first possession. A 41-yard touchdown strike to backup tight end Garrett Celek put the 49ers up 14-6 and set Seattle up to chase them the rest of the game. Even with that small setback, it's hard to argue that the Seahawks aren't peaking at the right time and although Russell Wilson was snubbed by the Pro Bowl this week, a case can be made for "Hustle" to be the MVP, as he has 3025 yards passing with 31 touchdowns and just six interceptions. Seattle is rarely out of a game and that is all thanks to Wilson. The Seahawks six losses this season have all come by eight points or less. Seattle also ranks in the top 10 in both scoring offense and scoring defense so you might consider them unlikely to be fighting for their playoff lives.
The Chiefs are coming off a 29-28 home loss to the Chargers, but with L.A. going for the win on a two-point conversion at the end of the game, we doubt much damage was done to K.C.'s high standing in the market. That the Chiefs are favored here in a high profile Sunday night spot in a typically tough place to play like Seattle says a lot. However, spotting points with a defense as porous as Kansas City's is a dangerous game. The Chiefs have allowed 29, 24, 33 and 51 points to the Chargers, Ravens, Raiders and Rams respectively over their last four games and there is little reason to believe that Wilson and company shouldn't be able to have a field day against this unit. The Chiefs are also carrying a ton of baggage here late in the season and it feels as though their train is close to coming off the tracks. The Kareem Hunt situation was handled embarrassingly by the team and the league and with Hunt now cut and Spencer Ware banged up, Kansas City's balanced offensive attack is much more one-sided. The Chiefs have been playing with fire lately and peaked way too early. They were fortunate to get every bounce and call in that 27-24 win over the Ravens two weeks ago and they let the Raiders hang around way too long in a 40-33 win three weeks ago although the Chiefs were double-digit road chalk that day. It's one thing to be a favorite in Oakland or Cleveland or even Denver but being rthe chalk at this crazed venue is quite amother. Kansas City is slipping and we're the beneficiaries of a takeback on a very live underdog.
NOTE: We anticipate a better number after dinner and thus, we'll wait until then to officially make this wager. We'll update it then and tweet it out also.
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SEATTLE +113 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.26)