Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 11:30 AM EST.
1:00 PM EST. Most joints have the Bills -2½ with some extra vig but we're going to "sell" a half point and take it to -3 +104.
The 5-8 Lions are 2-4 on the road but just beat the Cardinals in Arizona. The 4-9 Bills are only 2-4 at home and lost their last two games but if we’re playing value, over and under-reactions and intangibles to try and find the best side to play, we have to lean the Bills. You see, after the first month of the season, it looked like the Lions could be a threat while the Bills looked like a sure 0-16 team. Fast forward to the final three weeks and the narrative is much better for the Bills than it is for the Lions.
Forget that Detroit beat Arizona last week and take a look under the hood. Injuries (and a trade) have decimated both the offense and defense and the Lions have exceeded 20 points just once in the last seven games. There's not a lot of building for tomorrow going on with all the missing players and HC Matt Patricia's singular achievement was beating his old team. Matthew Stafford was questionable to play last week because of his back but kept his 127-game starting streak alive. He only passed for 101 yards and no scores and that was in perfect conditions. The conditions at Orchard Park in December are never perfect. To make matters worse, what in world is going to motivate the Lions to go into Buffalo and play inspired football when they have Minnesota and Green Bay on deck to close out the season. Those are two division rivals that the Lions can knock out of the playoffs, thus, anything they have left in the tank will likely be saved to try and make life miserable for that pair.
Josh Allen is making strides towards becoming the quarterback the Bills wanted when they spent their 1.07 pick last April. His passing production was anemic for much of the year and then he missed four games due to injury. His return in Week 12 brought back a new kind of quarterback. He's thrown better with three touchdowns over three games and he's rushed for 99, 135 and 101 yards over those three games, thus becoming the best rushing quarterback over the last three weeks in NFL history. Allen has also started to gain more chemistry with Zay Jones and even Robert Foster. Buffalo’s loss last week looks worse than it was, as the Bills deserved much better and they also deserved better in Miami the week previous. Being the superior team on the field two weeks in a row has resulted in zero wins for the Bills but they’re close. We 100% trust that they’ll be the superior team here too, only this time the opposition isn’t going to get lucky. The Bills actually have some swag these days while the Lions have none. The Bills closed as a 4½-point favorite against the Jets last week and lost outright. That undeserving result has them a smaller price this week when they should actually be a bigger price. Consider the Bills a deflated favorite and swallow the points.
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BUFFALO -3 +104 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.08)