NFL Picks for Week 11
NFL Picks for Week 11

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Posted Friday, November 16 at 2:00 PM EST.

NFL 2018

This year we’re changing it up a little bit from what regular readers are used to. We have always posted our NFL writeups and selections on Friday and that will not change.

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criterion we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday.

We’re intent on providing our readers with the best possible selections and doing so on Sunday instead of Friday just makes more sense. Again, we’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST.

NFL WEEK 11

JACKSONVILLE +5 -106 over Pittsburgh

1:00 PM EST. It was party week in Pittsburgh, as the Steelers reportedly had a field day looting now former teammate Le'Veon Bell's locker. In addition to shedding themselves of that lingering drama, the Steelers have also been playing well with wins and covers in five straight games. Last Thursday night's destruction of the Panthers undoubtedly left an impression, as that was one of the most anticipated TNF matchups this season. The Steelers stock is soaring, which makes them spotting this relatively small number to the lowly Jaguars stink to high heaven.

Jacksonville’s offense has been so bad that the oddsmakers could have set this line much higher and still not likely swayed a bet, as the last time anyone saw these Jags, they were putting the finishing touches on a five-game losing streak with a 29-26 defeat in Indianapolis but the Jags were down 26-13 late in the third quarter. So allow us to set it up for you a little clearer.The 6-2-1 Steelers won their last five games and are 3-0-1 on the road and they just destroyed the Panthers on prime time. The 3-6 Jaguars lost their last five games and are just 2-3 at home. The Jaguars swept the Steelers last year. They won 30-9 in Week 5 and later 45-42 during the Divisional Round of the playoffs. This is a good time for some revenge, which is the narrative of the week by all the talking heads. Revenge. One of the most talented and one of the hottest teams in the league have a score to settle here but all that talk just sets us up with an opportunity. The revenge angle has been destroying bankrolls for years.

The Jags season is pretty much done but that doesn’t mean that they are. There are some very good games left in this crew and there’s a great chance that they’ll have a lot of confidence here, knowing that they can and have beaten the Steelers, not once but twice. Some would even suggest that the Jags overall roster is better this year than last year but results once again influence more than anything else. The Jags are healthier this week, they have their RB back with a game under his belt and it's no surprise that quarterback Blake Bortles was also much better with Leonard Fournette in the backfield, as he had his best passing day in a month against the Colts. If we’re in the sell high/buy-low business, this is the epitome of that. Recommendation: Jacksonville +5 +108

Philadelphia +8 -109 over NEW ORLEANS

4:25 PM EST. The Saints appear to be an out of control freight train after they chugged right over the Bengals 51-14 for their ninth straight victory. Drew Brees is set to obliterate his own completion percentage record if he keeps up his current 77.3% pace and he's likely to pass Brett Favre and Peyton Manning on the all-time touchdown list, but that accolade will have to wait for another season. For now, Brees and his Saints have been the best bet on the board for two months after covering eight straight. It's not all sunshine and rainbows though, as New Orleans has been desperate for help at wide receiver and even signed Dez Bryant last week, but his knees didn't make it through the second day of practice. With their first option on the IR, the Saints went dumpster diving and found Brandon Marshall, who was cut after a short run with the Seahawks this season. The former Pro Bowler had 11 catches for 136 yards and a major in seven games with Seattle. If the 34-year-old Marshall had anything left in the tank, it's unlikely the Seahawks would have given him his walking papers. Like Bryant, Marshall has been a career malcontent. Why would Sean Peyton potentially upset the apple cart with spoiled fruit?

The Eagles dream season seems like it was 10 years and not 10 months ago at this point, but such is life in the churn and burn world of the NFL. Philadelphia is coming off a high profile loss on Sunday Night Football to the Cowboys in a game the market pounded the Eagles all day. After getting burned, it's unlikely that many of their backers in Week 10 will be eager to jump in again here in Week 11. Despite the loss, Carson Wentz had one of his best passing days of the season after putting up 360 yards. He also threw multiple touchdowns for the sixth straight game. "We realize a lot of people are going to want to write us off at this point. Now it's just time to play ball and try and go shock some people." It sounds like Wentz and company are playing with house money, as they've already got a championship in their back pocket, but the NFC East is still wide open. The Eagles also catch the Saints in a potential look-ahead spot, as New Orleans will host the Falcons on Thanksgiving next Thursday Night. If the Saints blew out the Eagles here it would not surprise us one bit. If you’re predicting the Saints to win big against the walking wounded,  we can’t blame you. However, we’re not in the prediction business and therefore, one must understand that if you bet the Saints, they may cover but you are going with the worst of it in this inflated price. Just to recap, the Eagles just got smoked by the Cowboys in prime time while the Saints went into Cincinnati and put that game away in the first five minutes with a resonating 51-14 final. Of course you’re going to overpay to get behind the hottest team in the NFL this week. We’re in the taking back inflated points business. Recommendation: Philadelphia +8 -109

Tampa Bay +2 -108 over N.Y. GIANTS

1:00 PM EST. The Buccaneers likely deserved a better fate last Sunday, as they outgained the Reskins by 215 yards, won the time of possession battle and even had a 400-yard passing quarterback, but four turnovers and zero majors in their five trips to the red zone left little opportunity for victory. Ryan Fitzpatrick has a league-best four 400-plus-yard throwing days under his belt, but the giveaways have been his undoing, as he's given the ball up five times in the last two games. Coach Dirk Koetter said he knows what's hurting his team, "Turnovers are killing us right now. We're minus-19. We're last in the league, 13 in the last four games. 13 turnovers and no takeaways." That’s pretty much the Bucs in a nutshell, as they've won just one game in their last seven attempts.  Turnovers have been the story in most of those games because the Bucs have only been outgained in two of those defeats. Sure those losses in Carolina and Chicago were terrible, but defeats to Cincinnati, Cleveland, Atlanta and Pittsburgh all came by five points are less. There's a fine line between winning and losing in the NFL and the Bucs haven't been good enough to overcome their mistakes. Lucky for Tampa, those bounces usually even out over time.

The Giants are coming off a win over San Francisco on Monday Night Football, which was just their second of the season. The Eli Manning Hall of Fame debate has also raged on this week, although the first of those facts has very little to do with the second. The "is he or isn't he" conversation is a fun one, but it's taking away from just how bad Manning and these Giants -have been this season. Despite getting the narrow 27-23 victory over the 49ers, who are on their third quarterback by the way, the G-Men were outgained and lost the time of possession by nearly 10 minutes. Manning had a very pedestrian day with just 188 yards passing, which is incredible when you consider he was sacked just one time after getting put on his back 31 times in the eight games prior. The Giants beleaguered offensive line will have its hands full here in Week 11, as former teammate, Jason Pierre-Paul will make his return to the swap. Pierre-Paul was a beast on the defensive line for years with the Giants before being traded to the Bucs in the offseason and JPP hasn't forgotten about how he was disrespected on his way out the door, "I had this game checked off since I left there, so emotions are running big. I'm coming, man. I'm bringing the house down" Pierre-Paul has eight sacks this season and if he has a big day it could be the end of Eli in New York, as head coach Pat Shurmur would not commit to his pivot for the rest of the season. The Bucs lead the league in passing yards per game and in total yards per game and now they’re playing an offense that can’t move five yards. Hall of Fame this! Recommendation: Tampa Bay +2 -108

Oakland +5½ -103 over ARIZONA

4:05 PM EST. Is there anybody other than Josh Rosen's grandmother watching this game if it weren't for wagering and fantasy football? The Cardinals got their man in the first round last April after Rosen dropped to number 10 in the draft. Arizona is finding out the hard way that one man does not make a team, as it has won just two games here 2018. The Cardinals have already fired their offensive coordinator this season and while the revival of star David Johnson last week in Kansas City was nice, we're not ready to crown new OC Byron Leftwich an offensive guru just yet, although actually getting DJ the ball is a good start. Arizona actually hung around with the Chiefs last Sunday, but it still lost by double digits, which is why it's nearly impossible to back the Cards especially since they are the betting favorites here. Arizona has been the chalk just once this season and that was in their opener against the Redskins. The Cardinals lost that day 24-6 and have only two wins on the season. Both of those came against the Garoppolo-less 49ers. If it weren't for their competition this week, it might be Arizona  that would be the laughing stock this season, but the Raiders are such a mess on and off the field that the Cardinals can't even be the best at being the worst.

Ripping Jon Gruden and this Oakland team is the lowest hanging fruit on the tree, but the negative press has the Raiders stock at near rock bottom. Don't forget they were +325 to win the AFC West this season, which is saying a lot considering they were eliminated from contention weeks ago. It's not all "Chucky's" fault and owner Mark Davis fell on the sword after Oakland lost to the rival Chargers, "I always look in the mirror, and the buck stops with me. Where this team is right now is my fault. We haven't been able to build a 22-man roster." With a bowl haircut that would make Lloyd Christmas jealous we have to truly wonder how much time Davis spends looking in the mirror, but with a 10-year contract, Gruden isn't going anywhere. What does all of this have to do with anything? We're not sure, but what we do know is the Raiders were a +6-point dog at the Chargers just over a month ago, a 6½-point dog at the Rams, a three-point dog at Miami, a +5½-point underdog at Denver and now they’re in the very same range against Arizona. Are you serious? This is being disrespected at its highest level. Recommendation: Oakland +5½ -103.

Cincinnati +6½ -108 over BALTIMORE

1:00 PM EST. Trust us when we say that we can’t stand the Bengals anymore than the next guy. When it matters, they are a nothing team and organization that hasn’t done a damn thing in four decades. That said, there are lots of moving parts in this one and it’s hard to trust the Ravens to win by a margin.

Baltimore Ravens QB Joe Flacco (hip) will not require surgery on his injured hip but more importantly for our purpose, he will not play here. First-round pick Lamar Jackson is expected to start and see the majority of the snaps in his absence. Regardless of whether the Ravens know if they are ready to move on from Flacco at the moment, Jackson could force their hand by sparking the offense in what should be a favorable matchup. One of the most dynamic athletes to come out of college in years - especially at the quarterback position- Jackson's upside is immense given his ability to turn any play into a touchdown as a runner or passer. At least that’s what the media is selling here but this isn’t college.

The Ravens are coming off a bye and haven’t scored more than 27 points since their Week 1 victory over the Bills. In the year that record points will be scored, Baltimore has scored 23, 27, 26, 9, 21, 23, 21 and 16 points respectively since that Week 1 victory. If Joe Flacco was playing today, this line might actually be lower than the current number, which is bordering on lunacy.

After surrendering 130 points over their last three games, the Bengals released DC Teryl Austin, thus, Marvin Lewis will assume this role with some help from Jim Haslet. Combine that with With A.J. Green still being on the sidelines and the Bengals stock hasn’t been this low since fans were showing up with bags over their heads about two decades ago.

Perhaps Lamar Jackson comes in and ignites this stale offense, becomes an overnight sensation and the Ravens score 50 and win by 40. If that happens, good for them. The more likely scenario is that this rookie doesn’t have a great game, the Ravens offense is still stuck in neutral and the Bengals, after being embarrassed three weeks in a row, show up with some pride and either win outright or come in well under the number. That’s not a prediction either, that’s us just buying low on the Bengals, a team that was a +6 underdog to the Saints last week, a +6½-point dog in Kansas City (same price as here) just three weeks ago and favored over the Steelers four weeks ago. Recommendation: Cincinnati +6½ -108

Denver +7 -108 over L.A. CHARGERS

4:05 PM EST.  The Broncos are wobbly again at 3-6, but avoided a setback last week because they were on their bye. Denver has not won an AFC West road game since 2015, when Peyton Manning was the quarterback and the Chargers were still in San Diego, but that fact is nothing more than a meaningless talking point that will influence the market to pile on the seemingly down and out Broncos. However, Denver has faced a murder's row of quarterbacks this season including Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson and now Philip Rivers, who might be putting together his best all-around season of his 15-year career.  

Premium quarterbacks come with a premium price and when you mix in the fact that Rivers hasn't lost a game in nearly two months, that cost is going to be even more inflated. The Chargers have won six in a row to rise to 7-2 in their chase of the Kansas City Chiefs. Los Angeles's AFC side hasn't lost since Week 3, but they've been all over the globe, literally, which has to take its toll. In their time since that last defeat, the Chargers have won games in Oakland, Seattle, London (Titans), and Cleveland. They played their last home game 42 days ago and while that run of victories sounds impressive, a glance shows they've smashed the Raiders (twice) and the 49ers without Jimmy GQ. A win in Cleveland looks a little better today than it did a month ago, but that 38-14 beatdown in C-Town is a big reason the Browns fired their coach and offensive coordinator. The Chargers other wins this season came in Buffalo, but that was way back in Week 2 when Nathan Peterman was still the quarterback. The L.A. offense has played just the 21st toughest schedule in the NFL according to Football Outsiders so forgive us if we're not ready to crown them quite yet. The Chargers were just five-point favorites over Oakland in Week 5, which also happened to be their last home game. Now they are spotting a more significant number to the Broncos? Denver might be bad, but it's not Oakland bad. Recommendation: Denver +7 -108

Minnesota +2½ +104 over CHICAGO

8:20 PM EST. We've sung the praises of Bears coach Matt Nagy all season and what he has done for that offense this season is nothing short of a football miracle. Sure, there are some nice players like Tarik Cohen, Trey Burton and the often injured Allen Robinson, but that Chicago is able to win with the likes of Mitch Trubisky is incredible. If not for fantasy football, he would be criticized much more for his ugly play. Now, we're not talking about his numbers because they aren't that bad. The problem with Trubisky is that he doesn't pass the eye test. He makes poor throws and bad decisions, but the Bears incredible defense makes up for nearly all of his flaws. Chicago had no business beating the Lions last week, but three Detroit turnovers made life much easier for Trubisky and company than it should have been. In Week 9 against the lowly Bills, Trubisky threw for a paltry 135 yards on 12-of-20 attempts. He was literally outdueled by Nathan Peterman, who was cut after that 41-9 blowout loss. Trubisky's only touchdown pass came in garbage time late in the fourth quarter. The Chicago defense led the way, as it did last week, but you can't expect your D to carry the offensive load week after week. The Bears lead the league in interceptions and are second in total takeaways, but generating turnovers is not a skill and those bounces are bound to start breaking bad.

It's unlikely many had this first meeting between the Vikings and Bears as a showdown for top spot in the NFC North, but it's because of that fact that we are presented with a great opportunity. The Vikes were a Super Bowl favorite when the season kicked off but off the field issues as well as a failure to fulfill expectations on the field has left them undervalued. There is no way Minnesota would have been a pooch in this spot had this game been played in the first few weeks. Market perception of Vikes quarterback Kirk Cousins is down and he has been labeled a "bust" since Minny's Sunday Night Football loss to New Orleans, but one bad bounce that we have outlined before did the Vikings in that night. A 24-9 win against the Lions in Week 9  was very much ho-hum and with the Vikes off last week on a bye, it appears that they are still under the radar. Now is the time to buy in because Minnesota is still very much a Super Bowl threat, but they are not priced as such. This is a classic underdog number (+2½) that confirms what we already suspected. That being that we get to back the superior team here and we don’t have to spot a damn thing. Recommendation: Minnesota +2½ +104

Monday Night:

L.A. RAMS -3½ +104 over Kansas City

8:20 PM EST. As per your request, we are going to include our early Monday Night lean from now on but please be aware that it could change on game day. This is just an early lean, preview and some insight into our approach.

The 9-1 Chiefs have won their last four games and are 4-1 on the road. The 9-1 Rams are 5-0 at home. This could very well be a preview of the Super Bowl or at least who will be playing a home game or two in January but there’s no doubt that it’ll be one of the most watched games in NFL history during the regular season.

This Monday night game was slated to be played in Mexico City but Azteca Stadium could not handle a mass of Shakira fans which apparently involved gophers, backhoes and strip mining. So back to Los Angeles now where the Rams actually get their eight home games. Look, we know that K.C. has appeal taking back points but let’s leave that out for a sec and pay attention to the number. The Rams were a 2½-point choice when the game was scheduled at a neutral site and now they are just one-point more at home? That makes no sense when home field is automatically awarded three points. The hook on a key number is also telling, as 3½ is not an underdog number. Therefore, our early lean is on the Rams, as we play the number and not the team. Recommendation: L.A. Rams -3½ +106

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Our Pick

NFL Picks for Week 11 (Risking 0 units - To Win: 0.00)