Jacksonville @ INDIANAPOLIS
INDIANAPOLIS -3 -108 over Jacksonville

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +3-108 BET 365 +3 -115 SportsInteraction +3 -115 5DIMES +3 -110

Posted at 11:40 AM EST.

1:00 PM EST. In their near dream season a year ago, the Jags beat the Colts  27-0 in Indy and they beat them 30-10 at home. Combined, that’s 57-10. A closer look at Jacksonville's 2017 shows that they played the weakest schedule of any team in the NFL according to Football Outsiders, a respected website that uses advanced analytics to rank just about anything that happens on the gridiron. The AFC South has been notoriously awful for many years and last season the division was missing its best quarterback in the Colts' Andrew Luck. Furthermore, the Jags also benefited greatly by posting the league's third-best takeaway rate with 16% of opposing team's drives ending in a turnover. Only Detroit and Baltimore had a higher rate of return than Jacksonville in that luck-based statistic. As we head into Week 9, the Jags haven’t been as lucky, they haven’t played the easiest schedule in the league, they’re 3-5, their #1 QB is still garbage and was benched last game in favor of Cody Kessler and they’ll have to face a different kind of Luck this time around.

The Jags defense may still be just as good this year, it's just hard to tell when the offense has been so bad. In this day and age when all the rule changes benefit offense, the Jags are stuck trying to win games on defense but those days are long gone. The trade deadline passed and there was no movement about a quarterback or receiver. The offense hasn't scored more than one touchdown for the last three games and Leonard Fournette is expected to return but he's not bringing magic with him.

The Colts have the same 3-5 record as the Jags and as a result of that, we get them at a real bargain here. Indy’s win over the Raiders last week doesn’t hold much weight in the market either, as everyone is beating up on that team and the Colts looked to be in trouble for a large portion of that game. In the end, Andrew Luck rallied his team to a 42-28 victory. This week is only the fourth time that the Colts play at home this year. Their last home game was the 37-5 thrashing of the Bills, another team that relies on defense to win games. Four of the last five games saw the Colts posting at least 34 points. Andrew Luck is tearing it up and the Colts have a new-found rushing game with Marlon Mack going off for 159 total yards and two TD’s against the Bills and then 149 total yards and two more scores in Oakland. He turned in 89 yards on 12 rushes in Week 6 at the Jets in his first game back from injury.

The NFL has changed. Offense sells (mainly due to fantasy) and the league took notice so that now, defenses virtually have no shot against good offenses. The Colts offense is led by a great QB and if not for a couple of unfortunate bounces in close loses to Philadelphia and Washington, the Colts would be a 5-3 team and would be a -7 point favorite here. While the defense isn’t great, it matters not when the offense can score and now we all have a choice to make. On a fast track in Indy, do you want Andrew Luck spotting a small price or do you want to hold a ticket on Blake Bortles trying to rally from 14 down? With back-to-back wins, the Colts have their sights set on the playoffs via winning this division and the road to that reachable goal begins right here.

poppy

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Our Pick

INDIANAPOLIS -3 -108 (Risking 2.16 units - To Win: 2.00)