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Posted Friday, November 9 at 2:00 PM EST.

NFL 2018

This year we’re changing it up a little bit from what regular readers are used to. We have always posted our NFL writeups and selections on Friday and that will not change.

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criterion we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday.

We’re intent on providing our readers with the best possible selections and doing so on Sunday instead of Friday just makes more sense. Again, we’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST.

NFL WEEK 10

N.Y. JETS -7 -109 over Buffalo

1:05 PM EST. It was ugly as ugly can get for the New York Jets last week, as they scored a measly six points in Miami with their franchise QB throwing four interceptions in the process. The Jets have now lost three in a row and their stock has hit its lowest point of the season, which makes us instant buyers. You see, the market has forgotten that the Jets destroyed Detroit in the season opener and then destroyed the Broncs three weeks later. They followed the win over Detroit with a 42-34 win over the Colts. At one time this was a 3-3 team and the rebuild was looking promising. It still is and we turn to social media to get a feel for what is happening around the club. The quotes from the Jets are optimistic and one-directional. That is a happy locker room. The coach likes the QB, the players like the coach, the QB likes the players, the owner likes the players and the players like the QB. Everyone is getting along and that’s not a bad way to start the week but that’s not the real story here.

On Wednesday, it was announced that quarterback Sam Darnold (strained foot) is sitting this week and the expectation is that Josh McCown will start. Wearing a walking boot, Darnold didn't practice Wednesday. With a bye next week, the Jets are giving him a two-week break before determining his status for Week 12 against the Patriots. McCown has yet to play in the regular season and took only 19 snaps in the preseason.

When news breaks of a key player being sidelined after the original line is posted, the line will come down for an hour or two so the books could figure out the impact and adjust. in  the case of McCown instead of Darnold, the oddsmakers couldn’t give a damn and that screams at us to spot the points. With Darnold was penciled in as the starter on Sunday, the line was Jets -7. When he was ruled out, the line didn’t change but the public bet it down to -6½. We were getting the Jets at a bargain price with Darnold in but now that he’s been ruled out, there will be an overreaction and we trust that we’ll get the Jets at an even bigger bargain.

The Bills are the lowest scoring team - by a large margin - in the NFL and they’re 1-4 on the road thanks to that improbable win in Minnesota but the argument you may hear is that Buffalo’s defense can keep them in this one against a Jets’ squad that doesn’t score much. We disagree. The Jets have a QB with experience that has succeeded in this role in the past and the team has put up crooked numbers in three games. Aside from that and even if we concede that Buffalo’s defense is ok, even good defenses play poorly when they’re tired. Worn out renders bad ones hopeless. Always be aware of whether the schedule helps or hinders freshness, the mental and physical toll of each game and the running "pitch count. Only two defenses have faced more plays than Buffalo this year and not because the defense is bad, it’s because the offense can’t move five yards. The Bills' opponents are running up the pitch count on this defense and without a bye, it’s taken a toll. Incidentally, Buffalo has a bye next week and we can’t think of a team that would be looking more forward to an off week than a team that is being quarterbacked by Nathan Peterman or Derek Anderson.

Josh Allen missed the last three games with a shoulder injury and we’re pretty confident that the Bills will keep Allen out until after the break. Derek Anderson did not throw any TD’s in his two starts but he did manage four interceptions and two lost fumbles. Nathan Peterman started in Week 9 and while he rushed in a score, he threw three interceptions and the Bears defense scored two touchdowns. Take your pick but think about this: Derek Anderson threw three passes all of last year and was coerced out of retirement to play this year in a pure desperation move by the Bills. What would this line be if, say, Henrik Sedin, another retired athlete, was the QB for Buffalo? 35? 42? Well, that’s the Bills likely starter this week ---Derek Anderson, a retired, not very good QB to begin with getting a mere seven points. If it’s Nathan Peterman, well he should be a three-TD underdog every time he starts. Finally, the mindset every player has in that Buffalo locker room has to be that “we can’t compete with these QB’s”. They’re right too.  Damn straight we’ll bite. Recommendation: N.Y. Jets -7 -109

Arizona +16½ over KANSAS CITY

1:00. The Cardinals have some playmakers, but they are a total mess here in 2018. There is no need to break this one down because their chances of winning this game fit somewhere between slim and none. Don't just take our word for it, as this line is one of the largest oddsmakers have posted all season. Only the Vikings in their Week 3 loss to the Bills have been asked to spot a number in this range, but we doubt Minnesota's failures that day will stop those cashing easy tickets with the Chiefs to stray here, but there is a lesson to be learned from that game and that is not every team can be at its best every week.

The Chiefs need no introduction here, as first-year starter Patrick Mahomes has quickly become a household name after leading the NFL's highest-scoring offense through 10 weeks. Kansas City has been featured multiple times in high profile primetime games with the most exposure coming from its Week 6 Sunday night showdown in New England where Mahomes went throw-for-throw with Tom Brady, but fell just short, 43-40. That is the only blemish on Kansas City's record, but it gained far more credibility in the market in defeat than most teams do in victory. The Chiefs latest triumph was a 37-21 win in Cleveland, which was their third straight victory since falling in Foxboro. The possibility to make it four in a row is very real, as the lowly Cardinals do not appear to pose much of a threat and oddsmakers have let that be known with this inflated number. However, Kansas City will be back in the spotlight next week, as they are going to be featured once again on Monday Night Football in a potential Super Bowl preview against the Rams in Los Angeles. Be sure to consider this as a potential lookahead spot before you step up to the window and lay the big lumber. Recommendation: Arizona +16½ -106

L.A. Chargers -10 -105 over OAKLAND

4:05 PM EST. Who is going to be eager to step up and bet the Raiders here after they totally embarrassed themselves and burned their many backers last Thursday night? When word had dropped that the 49ers would start Nick Mullens, the market unloaded on Oakland and drove them from the underdog to  the nchalk that night. You know what happened next, as the undrafted free agent went gangbusters on the Raiders defense. Those defenders were left with their hands on their hips and very much looked like they have had enough of taking orders from Jon Gruden, a man who is making far more money this season than just about anybody in pads. Gruden said this week that he's, "not going to make any excuses," about his team's pathetic 1-7 start, but then he added, "it does make things difficult when you have the amount of injuries that we have had. Got eight games left, we have to continue to coach hard and find a way to improve." Gruden can coach as hard as he wants, but it looked like his team quit on him on Thursday night, which makes the Raiders impossible to back even though they are likely taking back inflated points here at home against the hated Chargers.

Los Angeles's AFC side is one of the hottest in the NFL after ripping off five wins in a row. Last week's 25-17 win over the Seahawks was particularly impressive, as Seattle is always a tough barn to play in for any visitor. Philip Rivers is one of the league's top passers, as he ranks third in passer rating and has an impressive 19:3 touchdown to interception ratio. The Chargers are just a game back of the Chiefs, but they have been road warriors over the last month after playing games in Cleveland, London, Seattle and now here in Oakland. That grueling schedule is the only thing that might stop the Chargers from totally rolling over the Raiders here. When these two teams played in Los Angeles in Week 5, the Chargers were five-point favorites at home and now they are spotting double-digits on the road in The Black Hole. Usually, we'd be all over a swing that significant, but honestly, it is going to take a hell of a lot more than that to get us to step in here. This one is not interesting to us, as the Raiders can’t get our money and that leaves the Chargers by process of elimination. Recommendation: L.A. Chargers -10 -105  

GREEN BAY -10 -105 over Miami

11:00 PM EST. The Packers are 3-4-1 and coming off a 31-17 Sunday night loss in Foxboro against the Patriots, but that final score was one of the more deceiving of last weekend, as Aaron Rodgers and company likely deserved a better fate. If you weren't watching, the Pack were driving late in the third quarter in a 17-17 ball game and were primed to score as the final frame began, but a very costly Aaron Jones fumble on the first play of the fourth quarter squashed any chance the Packers had to hang with the Pats. New England would, of course, score a touchdown off that turnover and it never looked back. Now the Packers are looking up at both the Bears and Vikings in the NFC North standings, but they still have one of best quarterbacks in the game and they are always dangerous at Lambeau Field where they are 3-0-1 this season.

The Dolphins won and covered easily against the Jets last week, but they will be out of the element here, as temperatures are expected to be near the freezing mark in Green Bay Sunday afternoon. When Miami head coach Adam Gase was asked about preparing for the Pack, he had this to say, “Aaron Rodgers is a little different than Sam Darnold.” Perhaps Gase was just trying to be funny, but we’ve seen enough from him and his coaching abilities to believe that he could have made that comment with a straight face. Much has been made of the Dolphins ability to intercept opposing quarterbacks, but those ball hawkers cannot be counted on to make those plays from game to game, as relying on big plays like that is not a skill and those turnover bounces usually even out over time.

We posed this question with regards to Brock Osweiler before the Dolphins game against the Texans, but it fits so well again here, it's worth repeating. "Do I want to be holding a ticket backing Brock Osweiler on the road, taking back anything less than two touchdowns?" Our answer is "no," which makes the Dolphins a hard pass. Recommendation: GREEN BAY -10 -105

L.A. RAMS -10 -105 over Seattle

4:25 PM EST. For anyone that has followed this league for a while, a team like the Seahawks taking back double-digits in a division game is going to turn some heads. That includes the one loss Rams, who Seattle played tough in defeat in a game that came down to the wire 33-31 with L.A. edging out the feisty hosts. Before you line up to take back this pile of points, you must consider that oddsmakers are not in the business of giving away money, although the betting public has feasted the last two Sundays.

The Seahawks had been gaining some steam before losing 25-18 to the Chargers on Sunday, but it doesn't appear they lost much standing in defeat, as L.A.'s other team is getting some press as a Super Bowl contender. The Seahawks had won four of five coming into Week 9, but a closer look shows they were beating up on some underwhelming football teams. The Lions and Raiders are both on their way down the power rankings with Oakland likely already hitting rock bottom. The Cards, who Seattle narrowly defeated 20-17 in Week 5 aren't far behind the Silver and Black as basement dwellers. The Seahawks best win was arguably against the Cowboys 24-13, but Dallas is little more than a punchline at this point after getting beat by the Titans on Monday night.  

The Rams are 8-1, but in the market, they have made few friends this season, as they're just 4-5 against the spread and have cashed just one ticket in their last six games. L.A. fell 45-35 to Saints in a high profile game that exceeded the lofty expectations many had from an entertainment standpoint, but for anyone that bet the Rams again, it was a frustrating conclusion to a game they could have won after tying it up at 35 with just under 10-minutes to go in the final frame. A 75-yard touchdown from Drew Brees to Michael Thomas with under four minutes to play made the final score much more lopsided than it really was and so we find ourselves looking to the Rams as a value play this week despite this large number. We're not going to be afraid to swallow these points and neither should you. Recommendation: L.A RAMS -10 -105

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