Kansas City @ CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND +8 -110 over Kansas City

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Posted at 10:45 AM EST.

1:00 PM EST. We're not here to take anything away from the Chiefs, as they enjoyed a spectacular first half after going 7-1 to start the season. That only blemish was a high profile loss on Sunday Night Football against the New England Patriots. On that night, first-year starter Patrick Mahomes went toe-to-toe with Tom Brady and K.C. lost nothing in the market and even got the "rub" from the blue blood Pats. Mahomes has been a phenom after posting substantial offensive numbers, but these Chiefs have more in common with Cleveland than you might think. You see, like the Browns, Kansas City is a very one-dimensional team. Their defense stinks and that's all there is to it. In all but two of their games this season, the Chiefs have been outgained, which says quite a bit considering their record-setting offense. In games against the Chargers (-179), Steelers (-26), 49ers (-22), Jaguars (-78), Pats (-54) and last week at home to the Broncos (-71) the opposing side put up positive yards. Now, not all those gains are equal, as most of the Jags damage was done in a garbage time blowout, but aside from that, the Chiefs nearly blew big leads in L.A., Pittsburgh, San Fran and at home to Denver in Week 8. The Chiefs have the worst run defense in the NFL, which could be trouble when facing the new look Browns, whose offense is now being run by former running back coach Freddie Kitchens.  

The Brownies cleaned house and fired both former head coach Hue Jackson and offensive coordinator Todd Haley and we can’t be the only ones thinking, "what the hell took so long?" Haley specifically must have dirt on just about everyone around the league because it’s incredible how he keeps getting work. Ian Rapoport reported that Haley was "going rogue" with his play calling, which falls in line with the friction that had been building between coach and coordinator. The Browns front office gets credit here for getting rid of both guys, as Haley has burned every bridge he's ever walked across from Arizona to Kansas City to his high profile feud with Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh. Big Ben was kind on his radio show this week when he said he was "shocked" that both HC and OC were given the boot and he said of Haley, "You wanna have passions from your coach. Sometimes, that can come across in a negative way." There's a fine line from being a "passionate" coach and being an asshole and Haley is certainly the latter. The Brownies made the right call to go with defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, who had also had his fair share of controversy in the past after the Saints "bountygate" scandal, but in his time since, he has kept a low profile after making stops with both the Titans and Rams before joining Cleveland last season. The Browns defense has not been their problem here in 2018 either, as the goods under the hood tell the story. Cleveland is number three in Defensive DVOA right behind the Bears and Seahawks. A further breakdown shows the Browns feature the number one pass defense and they've had to compete against the second toughest schedule according to Football Outsiders. A look back on the Browns season shows that they could easily be 5-2 instead of 2-5 after dropping three-point games to New Orleans, Oakland and Tampa Bay all of which went to overtime. The defeats to the Saints and Raiders were particularly painful, as one of the worst performances by a kicker this season sunk them at the Superdome and a clear first down that would have sealed a win at Oakland was overturned. We’ll give the Brownies a mulligan for their loss at Pittsburgh last week in the aftermath of that deranged madman wreaking havoc on that close-knit community. The Steelers came in emotionally charged and took care of business.

The Chiefs have to tangle with these 2-5-1 Browns, then the 2-6 Cardinals the following week and finally get their "must watch" match in Week 11 at the Rams. This game comes after games against New England, Cinci and Denver, thus this looks to be a potential trouble spot for the Chiefs against one of the better “big-points” underdogs that this league has seen in quite some time.

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Our Pick

CLEVELAND +8 -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)