Today's Free Picks for
BEST LINES: Pinnacle -5½ -101 BET 365 -5½ -110 SportsInteraction -5½ -110 5DIMES -5½ -105
Posted at 10:45 AM EST.
8:30 PM EST. Make no mistake that the Patriots had no business covering last Monday Night but two fourth quarter TD’s capped off by an 84-yard pick-six turned sure losing tickets into winning ones. If you had the Pats on Monday Night, head right to the cashier’s booth and don’t speak to anyone on the way out. You got very lucky and it happens every single week in the NFL. What matters most, however, is the last impression that these two teams left in the market and in that regard ---advantage Packers.
The entire betting world watched New England barely escape Buffalo and also watched the Packers nearly pull off an upset in Los Angeles against the Rams in the featured late afternoon game last week. Both results have resonated in the market and while folks know not to put too much emphasis on what New England did last week, they will put plenty of emphasis on what the Packers did. Green Bay’s easy cover last week against the Rams was just a friendly reminder about the big risk of spotting significant points to an elite QB like Aaron Rodgers. This week, the market will not make that same mistake but we will.
The Packers nearly beat the Rams and had a great showing but that was one game and when we look at the Packers entire body of work, it’s all their games and it’s not pretty. In Week 1, Aaron Rodgers and the Pack needed a miracle fourth quarter comeback to beat Chicago. The Packers didn’t win that game, they escaped somehow. In Week 2, the Packers needed a series of bizarre events to tie the Vikings. In both weeks to start the season, Green Bay was clearly the second best team on the field. In Week 3, the Packers were buried in Washington by two TD’s. In Week 4, the Pack beat Buffalo (22-0) the week after Buffalo pulled off one of the biggest upsets in NFL history. Of course there was a Bills letdown. In Week 5, the Packers lost in Detroit 31-23. In Week 6, before its bye, the Pack were at home to the GQ-less 49ers and as a 9½-point choice, they needed a miracle and the referee’s aid on the final drive to overcome San Fran and its backup QB. Outside of a victory against the Bills, Green Bay should be a one-win team with losses to Chicago and San Fran along with a 14-point loss to Washington and a eight-point loss to Detroit. They were rightfully being offered 9½-points last week and they covered but this week the line is far less insulting (motivating) to the Pack and that’s our cue to move in.
And how about the trade deadline coming and going and this past week? With its 3-4-1 record, Green Bay is not better this week than they were last week. They are less talented with Ty Montgomery gone because he ticked off Aaron Rodgers by fumbling the game away last week. Mike McCarthy is next. You put a hugely talented player on a small market team and the team tiptoes around that player. Russell Westbrook in OKC and LeBron in Cleveland are examples. The Packers are allowing Rodgers to run this team and it’s going to come crashing down on them. What, they don’t need star safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix? They don’t need Ty Montgomery? The Packers had a good game last week but probably blew their load and now they’re going right back into the fire with a less talented team than they had last week, a bigger coaching mismatch than last week and probably an unhappy Aaron Rodgers too. If we spotted 9½ with the Rams last week to beat the Packers, you can be damn sure we’re spotting this deflated price on the Patriots after the Pats’ sub-par performance last week. Nothing more needs to be said.
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Our Pick
NEW ENGLAND -5½ -101 (Risking 2.02 units - To Win: 2.00)