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Posted Friday, November 2 at 1:45 PM EST.

NFL 2018

This year we’re changing it up a little bit from what regular readers are used to. We have always posted our NFL writeups and selections on Friday and that will not change.

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criterion we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday.

We’re intent on providing our readers with the best possible selections and doing so on Sunday instead of Friday just makes more sense. Again, we’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST.

NFL WEEK 9

Tennessee +5 over DALLAS
8:20 PM EST. The Titans were competitive in their Week 7 matchup with the Chargers in London but only because of their defense. This offense ranks near the bottom in all categories and after seven games, they've only totaled seven offensive touchdowns and three of those came in one game. This first season for HC Mike Vrabel has gone well enough for the defense - no opponent has scored more than 23 points on them - but OC Matt LaFleur may not make it to 2019. Furthermore, the most important man on the field, Marcus Mariota, has been unthinkably bad. Ignore Week 4 versus the Eagles and Mariota has averaged 137 passing yards per game and scored just once over six games played. The offense has failed in every area and now they’re playing a pretty good defense.

 

The Cowboys road game woes continue but back at home, they've been better and now have at least the specter of a passing offense with the addition of Amari Cooper. He'll be the focus for Dak Prescott since no other receivers have stepped up to make much difference. The Cowboys face the Eagles and Falcons on the road after this week so a win here is critical. It could be tempting to look past the Titans to the game in Philadelphia in Week 10 so that is on the table despite it being Monday Night.

 

Look it, the Cowboys play in prime time as much as any team in football. This is not a novelty for them but for the Titans, it is something a little extra special, as they appear on prime time every leap year. That defense of the Titans keeps them in games and it’s not like the ‘Boys are some formidable offense they have to deal with. Dallas owns a pedestrian offense that hasn’t been much better than the Titans' offense.

 

That said, this line was at +6 or +6½ for most of the week so by playing Tennessee here, we would be playing a “bad” number. That’s not in our wheelhouse and neither is spotting five points (or more) with a Dallas team that is not a strong favorite because they, too, have trouble scoring and could easily fall behind. Throw in the fact that it was a horrible Sunday for us and we have no problem sitting this one out. NO BETS but if we had to, we would take the points. Recommendation: Tennessee +5 -110

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BUFFALO +10 -102 over Chicago

1:00 PM EST. The "right" side doesn't always win, as the Bills proved on Monday Night Football in a 25-6 loss to the Patriots in one of the ugliest games played this season. Buffalo actually looked like it was going to hang on and cover that 13½-point spread until the Pats scored two fourth quarter touchdowns with the 84-yard interception return by Devin McCourty with under six minutes to go being particularly painful for Buffalo backers. If you ripped up your ticket that night, you probably deserved better, but sometimes bad things happen when you bet below average football teams and Buffalo fits the bill. If you're a value bettor, then this information probably isn't new to you, but those in the market that stepped out of line Monday night and bet Buffalo because it was the "sharp" side aren't likely going to be too eager to line up to bet the Nathan Peterman backed Bills here, but taking back double digits against Tom Brady and the Patriots is one thing. Doing the same against the visiting Chicago Bears is quite another. Buffalo is always a tough place to play and the fans are going to get loaded and create a ruckus regardless of how much the Bills stink. They proved that on MNF and Sunday will be no different.

We've said it before and we'll say again, these Bears are just not ready to be spotting big points on the road. Even to Nathan Peterman. Buffalo is always a tough place to play. Oddsmakers have asked the Bears for a lot here after Chicago failed to cover the spread when it was the betting favorite in Arizona in Week 3 and Miami in Week 6. On that date in the desert, Chicago barely escaped in a 16-14 win as near touchdown chalk. Their outright loss to the Dolphins was one that the market suffered greatly for after word had come out that the Fish would be starting Brock Osweiler instead of Ryan Tannehill. The action in that game was all Bears, as that line moved significantly and closed at 7½. When the dust settled, the Dolphins win in overtime had the books getting the last laugh once again. You would think that the market would learn a lesson about overreacting to QB’s being out but no, they could not wait to fade the 49ers last night after C.J. Beathard was ruled out. The 49ers kicked ass and now they’re in line to fade Peterman.  

Also, consider the low total in this game. Spotting double-digits with a total under 40 is just not a bet we can recommend making. The Bears are going to have very little room for error if they are to cash this ticket. The more likely scenario is that Buffalo puts up a New Era Field fight and comes in well under the number. Recommendation: Buffalo +9 -102

MINNESOTA -5 -106 over Detroit

1:00 PM EST. The Lions had become a sexy sleeper pick going into Week 8, but got punched in the mouth at home at Ford Field by the Seahawks in a game the visitors had dedicated to their late owner Paul Allen. Detroit's front office responded to that loss by trading number one wide receiver Golden Tate to the Eagles for a third-round pick. It was a cost-cutting move and it does nothing to help the 3-4 Lions, who are just one game out of the NFC North Division race. Mindset is everything and there is no doubt this 2018 edition of the Lions is not better off after the trade deadline than it was before it. They may respond with the lack of a vote of confidence from management in kind.

Sometimes one play can change everything and Adam Thielen, the Vikings and their backers all found that out the hard way when a costly fumble by the record-setting receiver was returned for 54-yards late in the second quarter. Two plays later the Saints scored a touchdown to take the lead and they never looked back. Instead of going to the half up 20-10, the Vikes went into the half down 17-13. It was a huge swing that gave sucked the life out of U.S. Bank Stadium and the Vikings too. Minny walked into the break deflated and they were never the same afterward but all this market sees is another bad loss. Trust us when we suggest that one play changed everything so if you bet the Saints, you would have sold your bet for 25 cents on the dollar when it looked like a sure thing that Minnesota was going up 10 points with just seconds left in the first half and getting the ball to start the second half.

We're in the buy low/sell high business, which brings us to Kirk Cousins, who has been called a "bust" among other things by more than one outlet after he signed a fully guaranteed contract with the Vikes this offseason, but this narrative is a big reason why you have to ignore the "hot" take loving, talking heads. Cousins is the number nine quarterback in DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement), which is an advanced metric that gives the value of a quarterback's performance compared to run of the mill replacement. That puts him ahead of Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson and many others. Cousins sits just outside the top 10 (11th) in QBR and he's helped guide Thielen to eight straight 100 yard performances to start the season, breaking a record that had stood since 1961. To call Cousins a bust is foolish and you could do much worse at the league's most important position. The Vikings are a true contender and they are undervalued here after that high profile prime-time second half stinker. We now get these Vikes at a bargain basement price and we’re all over it. Recommendation: Minnesota -5 -106

N.Y. Jets +3 -117 over MIAMI

1:00 PM EST. Football is a 60-minute game and the Jets have found that out the hard way after playing competitively for a half before getting blown out the last two weeks to the Vikings and  Bears respectively. In its previous three games, New York's AFC side has outscored their opponents 11-to-10 and while the offensive output is not impressive, the Jets defense has been really good, but they are spending way too much time on the field. Rookie quarterback Sam Darnold has all of the tools and his best passing game as a pro came against Miami in Week 2 when he went for 334 yards in that 20-12 loss to the Fish. That previous result, as well as a banged up Jets receiving core,  may have New York underpriced here on the road, but don't worry about the names on the backs of those green and white uniforms. This is a considerable coaching mismatch with the mild-tempered and steady had of Todd Bowles guiding the young Jets, while the Fish are led by a madman that might not be quite as smart as everyone thought he was.

Like Bowles, Adam Gase is likely coaching for his job here in the second half of the season, but unlike his counterpart, Gase is cracking. "You're asking me all the questions I don't want to get asked anymore. I haven't gone down there to watch him (Tannehill) do anything. The trainers talk to me. It sounds like he is close to the stage where he could start throwing soon."

Does that sound like a guy that has a grip on his football team? He's not seen his franchise quarterback, who is suffering from a shoulder injury do anything? What the hell, man? The Dolphins bye comes in Week 11 and if Gase survives, it will be a mini miracle, as the Fish are in free fall mode after allowing 102 total points their last three games, while also allowing 7.6 yards per play over that time. Miami's run defense is ranked 24th in the NFL and they are allowing 6.4 yards per play on the ground (30th). We highlighted a few weeks ago that the Dolphins were getting by on big plays on all sides of the ball, but now that those huge gains have dried up, they've been totally exposed. Brock Osweiler, who the market couldn't wait to fade three weeks ago against the Bears, is not ready to spot points against anybody. While all things are not equal, the Fish have been notorious for playing down to their competition over the years, especially at home where they have covered just 19 of their last 68 home games, which means they've been a bad home favorite for over a decade. Give us the kid and the points and we'll see you at the window. Recommendation: N.Y. Jets +3 -117

WASHINGTON -1½ -110 over Atlanta

1:00 PM EST. The Redskins are like an old boxer that will stand and jab, jab, jab, while taking your best shot, until the fight is over and before you know it, you've lost on all three scorecards. That's exactly what has happened to their opponents the last three weeks, as the 'Skins have won three straight games, but none of those victories was particularly noteworthy. If you've bet on Washington and watch it play, you're likely not too eager to bet them here, as they are totally uninspiring on the field, but are still getting positive results. The Redskins are ranked fifth in the league in total defense and let it be known to their players that they are serious about making a run in the NFC this season after trading for defensive back and former first-round pick Ha Ha Clinton-Dix from the Packers. That fourth rounder was a cheap price to pay for management to show a vote of confidence in the team and head coach Jay Gruden knows it, "The front office pulled the trigger and got him (Clinton-Dix) in here. Now it's our job to get him acclimated to the defense and add him to the mix of a good safety group”. The adjustment shouldn't be too hard for Clinton-Dix, as he's friends with and works out with Washington safety D.J. Swearinger, who has four interceptions to his credit this season. The 'Skins will face a tough test on paper from the high flying Falcons offense, but this game will be played on the real grass of FedEx field and not the fast track in Atlanta, which could slow down Julio Jones and company.

The Falcons have won back-to-back games, but fading teams that are rolling into the bye is one of our favorite angles, as that break totally disrupts any momentum a club may have. Like we mentioned above, Atlanta is a much different team when it is on the road than at home. It has benefited greatly from playing five of its seven games in the comfy confines of Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Atlanta has scored just 29 total points in its two road games this season, which includes Week 1 at the Eagles and Week 5 in Pittsburgh. The Falcons lost both games, with that effort in the Steel City being the most alarming after the Falcons failed to muster much of anything against a Steelers defense that many in the market though was ripe for the pickings. The total in that game was in the high 57s, which is not something you often see outside of a dome. The Falcons are totally one dimensional, so if they do not put up big points, they have very little chance of winning because they feature the second-worst defense in the league according to analytics over at Football Outsiders. A further breakdown of that poor standing shows that Atlanta doesn't do anything well on that side of the ball, as their pass defense is 31st, while their run defense is just as bad. The Falcons may have some appeal here, but that's only because nobody has seen them play for two weeks. Remember, this is a team that made Eli Manning look like his big brother Peyton after surrounding almost 400 yards to the embattled passer. While the Falcons won that game against the Giants, just remember how porous that defense is after it allowed one of the dirtiest backdoor covers of the season. Bet the Falcons at your own risk here, as they take a considerable step up in competition and before you go, also remember that this is a coaching mismatch and it’s not in the Dirty Birds favor. Recommendation: Washington -1½ -110

L.A. Rams -1 -110 over NEW ORLEANS

4:25 PM EST. The Rams are 8-0, but the market and the pundits have taken notice to the close games they've been playing in the last five weeks, as they've only managed to cover one spread, which was that 39-10 drubbing of the lowly 49ers. Close games with quality clubs like the Packers, Broncos, Seahawks, and Vikings might scare away some away with the super sexy Saints on the docket here, but these Rams are too good to pass up at a short price like this. Although they need no introduction, this might be a good time to remind you just how great L.A.'s NFC side is despite not cashing tickets as of late. When we peek under the hood, the Rams are the number two overall DVOA team according to Football Outsiders and they are the only team to feature both a top five (third) passing attack and a top five (third) rushing game. Los Angeles is winning games. It's just not winning friends in the market.

On the extreme other side of that equation are the New Orleans Saints who have done nothing but cash tickets for five straight games including a pair of high profile prime-time matchups on Monday night in Week 5 against the Redskins and last Sunday night against the Vikings. That double-digit "revenge" win over Minny is getting a ton of attention, but that game really just came down to one play. The Saints got the bounce on a rare Adam Thielen fumble in the red zone. It was a massive swing in momentum and when New Orleans scored two plays later, it was lights out for the Vikes. Instead of going into the half down by double-digits, the Saints took the lead and never looked back. Now New Orleans stock is soaring, which makes them a prime sell-high candidate. That we get to back a team as good as the Rams at a price this short makes this bet a no-brainer. Recommendation: L.A. Rams -1 -110

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