NFL Picks for Week 8
NFL Picks for Week 8

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Posted Friday, October 26 at 2:30 PM EST.

NFL 2018

This year we’re changing it up a little bit from what regular readers are used to. We have always posted our NFL writeups and selections on Friday and that will not change.

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criterion we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday.

We’re intent on providing our readers with the best possible selections and doing so on Sunday instead of Friday just makes more sense. Again, we’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST.

NFL PICKS WEEK 8

Philadelphia vs. Jacksonville

Wembley Stadium - London, England

9:30 AM EST. This is another great situational spot that has been spoiled by the NFL's overseas cash grab. If this game were being played in Jacksonville, the Jags would be a near must play, as they have very little market appeal outside of the fact that these London games have become second nature, while the troubles first-time visitors have faced when going across the Atlantic are well documented. However, that trend is not set in stone either. Seattle blasted the Raiders a couple of weeks ago and the Titans came to play and pushed the Chargers to the brink as a 6½-point pooch last Sunday. Both franchises were making their inaugural trips to Merrie Olde England. Can Philly follow suit? One has to question the Eagles mindset after blowing that double-digit fourth-quarter lead last Sunday. Philly is a vulnerable favorite, but there are just too many variables to pull the trigger here and so we'll look elsewhere for our plays this week. Unless something is a must, we are not betting these Sunday morning games (nor are we watching them) Recommendation: Jacksonville +3

CINCINNATI -4 over Tampa Bay

1:00 PM EST. This contest isn't in prime time or against the Steelers so you really have to like Andy Dalton and the Bengals chances to have a big day. You see, the greater the stakes and larger the audience, the more likely Howdy Doody and company are to crap their pants. A 1:00 PM home start against the Buccaneers? Now that's a game where the Bungles come to play, especially on the heels of being totally embarrassed by the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. It was the second straight week that expectations were high for Cincinnati after it started the season 4-1. Prior to getting blasted 45-10 in K.C., the Bengals dropped a 28-21 decision at home to the hated Steelers. Cincy's inability to break through the glass ceiling to become a contender in the AFC North is well documented and it's going to be easy to write them off as the same old Bengals, but don't let another high profile slip up keep you from giving them a look here, as they are short priced at home against one of the worst defenses in football.

The Bucs are coming off a home win to the Browns, but that game was a classic case of who wants it less, as both teams traded uninspired and error-filled possessions in overtime. When the dust settled it took a near miracle 59-yard field goal from Chandler Catanzaro to seal the victory. That is both good and bad, as Catanzaro was near the cutline after missing an extra point for the second week in a row. He also whiffed on a potential 40-yard game winner as time expired, which forced the Bucs into extra time in the first place. The line between hero and goat is a fine one and Catanzaro straddled it with precision on Sunday, but those missed kicks all add up and it's going to be cold and rainy in the Queen City, a far cry from the sweet sunshine Catanzaro is accustomed to. His poor effort is a big reason why the Bucs special teams rank just 26th in DVOA over at Football Outsiders. That peek under the hood gets even uglier when you see that Tampa sports the worst defensive DVOA in the NFL. With a total in the mid-50s, oddsmakers expect fireworks here and while you might rather have Jameis Winston, Mike Evans or DeSean Jackson on your fantasy team, the Bengals are the more complete squad on the field and should have no trouble putting up enough points to cover this small spread.

Don’t get us wrong about the Bengals. Marvin Lewis has had one foot out the door for 15 years. His signature career accomplishment is presiding over the greatest victory of the century … for the Buffalo Bills. For his own team, he is a classroom lecture they can never leave. Cincinnati hasn’t won a big game in about two decades but against a weak team when nobody’s watching, oh yeah. Recommendation: Cincinnati -4

Seattle +3 over DETROIT

1:00 PM EST. Market value is something we consider when breaking down these games and this one is tough, as it appears both the Seahawks and Lions are trending upward. Firstly, we have Seattle, which is now 3-3 after back-to-back good showings including going toe-to-toe with the mighty Rams in Week 5 and then destroying the Raiders in London in Week 6. Even if the Seahawks have turned things around, and we're not confident that is the case, that bye week is such a momentum disrupter. You'll hear the pick sellers and pundits talk all the time about how a team has had "more time to prepare," but in-game situations and intensity cannot be replicated. Much is also going to be made about the against the spread trend of teams coming off their London bye going 11-0-1, but that meaningless stat will only influence the market into looking at Seattle.

As we've made the transition to locking in our plays on Sunday rather than Friday afternoon, we have to also consider where the money is going to go in just under 48 hours or so. The Seahawks have been a popular team in the market for over a decade now, as they were once the class of the NFC and while the Rams have knocked them from that perch, it isn't going to take long for the market to rekindle that fire. Meanwhile, the Lions are still the Lions and while they are starting to creep onto a few sleeper lists here in Week 8, when push comes to shove, Seattle is the more trusted commodity in the market.

We like the Lions a lot, and have written about their value for weeks in this space. While they are coming off a big road win in Miami, that win might not look as impressive after the Texans made Brock Osweiler look like, well, Brock Osweiler on Thursday night.

A reader this week pointed out to us that San Diego's owner passed away a couple of weeks ago and we used that angle to get behind the Chargers, citing that the team is dedicated the game to him and will not be flat. The Chargers buried the Brownies that day and the same thing applies to the Seahawks here after their owner passed away after Seattle's trip overseas. This is the dedication game and that is something we cannot recommend betting against. Recommendation: Seattle+3

OAKLAND +3 over Indianapolis

4:05 PM EST. The Colts feature one of the best QB’s in the league. A healthy Andrew Luck takes a backseat to few in this league and while the Colts only have two wins, they are coming off a blowout victory over the Bills. Blowout wins resonate in the market and have more influence on the number than a narrow win. The Colts are only two games out of the division lead and the scoring is up. Not only did Andrew Luck turn into one of the most productive quarterbacks in the NFL the last month, the rushing game lit it up last week. The Colts are improving and they are not being overlooked anymore but man, does this line ever stink or stand out.  

What you are going to read or hear this week if you haven’t already is that the Raiders have shifted into “tank mode”. The Amari Cooper trade pretty much makes a rebuild and tanking as clear as day and now the Raiders will be giving more snaps to the younger players who actually have a stake in the future. Case in point is cornerback Gareon Conley, who was relegated to special teams play the past couple of games after some costly (rookie) mistakes the first few games is back to playing cornerback. Both defensive coordinator Pat Guenther and Jon Gruden commented on the decrease by saying “We need to see more of him”, which is insanely contradictory of their actions.

The next thing you may read or hear about is that Marshawn Lynch is out at RB and Doug Martin is in. Doug Martin hasn’t been relevant since 2015. That is not going to inspire a single person on earth to get behind the Raiders here. Before we continue, let’s recap for a second. The Raiders are 1-5. They’re coming off a 27-3 loss to Seattle that was a featured game in London and they’ve now scored 13 points over their last two games when most teams are putting up record offensive performances. The Raiders are tanking, they’re using rookies all over the place and Doug Martin is their replacement starting RB.

Jon Gruden’s greatest accomplishment was winning a title using Tony Dungy’s players and Bill Callahan’s play sheet. That was 16 years ago. He went 45-51 after that title and spent his remaining years in Tampa fondling quarterbacks and then tossing them aside like an old lady picking out cantaloupes at the supermarket. The game has passed this man by a f***ing decade ago. Hiring Jon Gruden is like thawing out a caveman and making him a calculus teacher and to make it even a more difficult spot, the Raiders host the Thursday night game up next. We’re not here to preach the Raiders and even suggest that they’re worthy of your money because they’re not. We’re recognizing a game that looks too good to be true and those seldom turn out well. This game is very unlikely to make our board because the Raiders are not playable but saving a bet is just as good as winning one and that is precisely what this one feels like. Buyer beware. Recommendation: Oakland +3   

Denver +9½ over KANSAS CITY

1:00 PM EST. Fading teams coming off a huge primetime win is a situation we love to play, as there is often an overreaction to the winners and losers. That 45-10 drubbing of the Bengals only added to their lore and when we consider that the 6-1 Chiefs also looked great and lost nothing in a Sunday night defeat to the Patriots and they also recently blew out Jacksonville, their standing in the market is sky high. However, that's why there is the great equalizer in the point spread. We're not going to take anything away from wunderkind Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense, but despite giving up just 10-points to the Bengals, the Kansas City defense is still an issue. Yes, the Chiefs are the league's highest scoring team at 37.1 points per game, but they are also giving up nearly 26 PPG (11th most in the NFL). The 435.4 yards per game the Chiefs defense gives up ranks last in the league and their run defense is third worst. Winning and covering are two different things and a defense this porous cannot be trusted to cover a number this significant, as there is little room for error.

Denver is coming off a high profile primetime win as well, but that it came over the lowly Cardinals, while the Chiefs beat the then 4-2 Bengals, the Broncos W doesn't hold nearly as much weight. The highly touted Denver defense, which had been raked over the coals after poor showings against the Jets, came to life in the desert and forced five turnovers while limiting the Cards to just 223 total yards. We don't want to put too much emphasis on the Arizona game, so we took a deep dive and the analytics really like the Broncs despite the negative opinion that has been surrounding them. Sure, Case Keenum isn't what he was last season, but the Denver offense is still a top-10 (seventh) unit according to the DVOA rankings over at Football Outsiders. That Bronco defense that took so much heat after getting gashed in the swamps of Jersey is ranked eighth. The Broncos are the only team with a losing record to be ranked in the top five (fifth) of overall team DVOA. This team is better than its record and its standing in the market would have you believe. It's easy to forget that the Broncos had the Chiefs dead to rights up by double-digits on its home field on Monday Night Football and the sports world watched them blow it. The Broncs were a 3½-point pooch in that MNF contest and now, less than a month later they are taking back near double-digits in K.C.. While Arrowhead Stadium might be one of the toughest places to play, so too is Denver and the Chiefs covered that game. When these division rivals meet, you can throw just about everything out the window. Value is value and therefore the Broncos are the only choice here. Recommendation: Denver +9½

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Our Pick

NFL Picks for Week 8 (Risking 0 units - To Win: 0.00)