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Posted at 10:30 AM EST.

1:00 PM EST. The 2-3 Lions come off their bye, which can be looked at in two ways. One, "out of sight, out of mind," which is great because they are totally under the radar. Two, "absence makes the heart grow fonder," which is how we feel about the Leos, not just in this spot, but as a whole. Detroit is a sneaky good bet at 8-1 to win the NFC North and you could do worse than to sprinkle a little on the Lions to win the Super Bowl at 66-1. Detroit beat the Packers two weeks ago, but Green Bay's stock is trending downward after it nearly lost to the Garoppolo-less 49ers. When the Lions played in San Fran in Week 2, they got the 49ers at nearly full force, as Jimmy GQ was still upright and mobile. There is no shame in that road loss to the 49ers or the razor-thin decision the Lions dropped in Dallas. Detroit's only real stinker was that high profile opening week loss to the Jets on Monday Night Football, but that game was a long time ago. Matt Patricia knows the Fish after scheming against them for years as Patriots OC. Lions are under the radar because they are coming off a bye. Detroit might be the best team in the NFC North.

Any day that Brock Osweiler comes off the bench and throws for 380 yards and three touchdowns is one to remember and that overtime win over the Dolphins is one that certainly resonated with the market. As news broke that starter Ryan Tannehill would be out, the spread of that game swung violently, as the Fish closed as 7½-point underdogs, which was an uptick of four points. The market paid dearly for overreacting to Osweiler playing pivot that day and it's not likely that he’s going to play that well again, as he'll take the reigns for the second game in a row. Detroit can prepare to face him while the Bears did not have that luxury. Miami's success this season has been on the back of big plays, which is not a sustainable model for success. Miami’s offense, both rushing and passing, ranks near the top of the league in generating big plays. Big plays are categorized as rushing plays that are over 10 yards and passing plays that are over 25 yards. Osweiler's passing yards are mostly thanks to Albert Wilson and giddyup sticks, as the speedy receiver has made his QB's look great with his league-leading 324 yards after the catch but here’s the kicker. Chicago was a -7 point choice in Miami last week and now a team of equal or better talent is four points less? Those that bet against Osweiler last week jumped the gun and paid for it. That opens the door for us to move in hard against him and the Dolphins at this deflated price.

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