Houston @ JACKSONVILLE
JACKSONVILLE -3½ -101 over Houston

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle -3½ -101 BET365 -3½ -105 SportsInteraction -3½ -105 5DIMES -3½ -101

Posted at 10:30 AM EST.

1:00 PM EST. The 3-3 Texans are on a three-game winning streak after beating the Bills in OT last week. Naturally, that victory over Buffalo won’t hold much weight but a win is a win and three successive wins will absolutely hold some weight. The Texans also defeated Dallas two weeks ago in prime time and after what Dallas did to Jacksonville last week, that victory suddenly looks much better. A look deeper though and we’ll tell you the real story about these dregs from Houston. They lost to the Giants 27-22 after losing to Tennessee. It’s not easy losing to that pair and they were damn lucky that Josh Allen got injured last week otherwise we would be racking up a loss against the Bills too. The Texans other victory over the past three weeks came against the 1-5 Colts and it took OT and some bonehead coaching decisions by Indianapolis coach, Frank Reich for the Texans to escape that one too. They beat Dallas because Jason Garrett is also clueless.

Since their triumphant win over the Patriots to go to 2-0, the Jaguars stock has plummeted. They're 1-3 since and the offense has been a bigger problem than the defense. Since he threw for 376 yards and four touchdowns during the Week 2 win over the Patriots, Blake Bortles has spent the next month struggling to find any traction. He has posted a 75.5 passer rating over the past four games, with four touchdowns against six interceptions. He offered virtually nothing in the 9-6 loss in Week 3 to the Titans, when even a decent game would have resulted in victory given that an injured Marcus Mariota could barely spin the ball. Bortles racked up meaningless yardage against the Chiefs in Week 5, so when the situation-adjusted Total QBR algorithm looks at his numbers, it pegs Bortles for a mark of 37.1 over the past month, placing him between C.J. Beathard and Josh Allen in 30th place. He's looking up at both Eli Manning and Case Keenum over that stretch.

Dallas scored 40 points on Jacksonville last week. That’s disturbing when you consider that previously, Dallas couldn’t move five yards. The week prior, the Jagwires put up 14 points against a Chiefs defense that surrenders about 35 a game. That’s also disturbing. There aren’t very many people that would be able to recall the Jags last win without looking it up (go ahead - try….without looking it up). It seriously does not get much worse than scoring 14 meaningless points on the Chiefs and following it up by giving up 40 to the ‘Boys. Now the market has reacted to results and we’re the beneficiaries of that. The Jags were +2 v New England, +3 at Kansas City, -7½ over the Jets, -10 over Tennessee and they were a -3 point choice in Dallas last week. Now they’re -3½ at home (almost the same price as last week on the road) against a pure dreg?  Boy o boy o boy, you talk about getting a team at a bargain and this would be that time.

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Our Pick

JACKSONVILLE -3½ -101 (Risking 2.02 units - To Win: 2.00)