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Posted at 10:30 AM EST.

4:25 PM EST. We’ll preach it until we’re blue in the face that nobody can predict the outcome of sporting events, whether it be hockey, baseball, football or basketball. People have tried since the beginning of time and have failed so you are not going to be the first. It’s impossible. You see, there isn’t a crystal ball in the world that can predict all the variance that happens in a game. One lousy play or subjective call can change the landscape of a game. One offside call on the defense on 3rd on 2 can change the landscape. One running into the kicker call on a punt can do the same. Turnovers absolutely change landscapes. A coaches bonehead call can change the landscape too. All of the above are what is known as “in-game variance” and we’ve only covered a few of them. We’ve seen guys call for a fair catch on the one-yard line. We’ve seen onside kicks work and fail and we’ve seen phantom flags more times than we care to recall. Whether you get paid or not is often decided by the refs or a completely subjective call.

The talking heads will break down the X’s and O’s and will suggest that a team that can’t stop the run will get buried by a strong running attack and therefore the team with the running attack will rack up yards, control the clock and wear down the defense in an easy victory. There are other variables to that story too when breaking down game plans. No pass defense against a prolific passing attack is another. That’s all bullcrap and if you try and figure out how a game will go by breaking down the X’s and O’s, you will end up like 98% of the market -- a losing bettor. Oh, you’ll win a game here and there too but for the most part, it does not matter. So, why do we bet football or sports if one cannot predict outcomes and if so much of it is based on luck? Because there is money available if you look for value in the numbers among other things.

That brings us to playing said value, playing into market perceptions and also playing into over and under market reactions. That in turn brings us to this game. Dallas had one of the most resonating wins of the year last week when they buried the Jacksonville Jaguars by 33 points. Had Jacksonville showed up and Dallas lost to run its record to 2-4, this market would still be talking about a Cowboys’ offense that can’t move five yards or what a total buffoon Jason Garrett is. Had that happened, Washington would be a -3 point choice here. Prior to last week, Dallas had scored 8, 20, 13, 26 and 16 points respectively over its previous five games and the 16 points came in five quarters against Houston, not four. Last week’s outburst erases some bad memories but this week one will pay for what the market has forgotten and that’s our focus here as opposed to the X’s and O’s. Market reactions are a criterion we use often. We could write all about the Redskins but it matters not. What we know for sure is that the Redskins had an ugly win last week while the Cowboys had a resonating one and both have had significant influence in this week’s number. That’s all the motivation we need to recommend a play on the host. We’re also going to suggest that on Sunday, by game time, Dallas will be favored so wait as long as possible if you’re on board

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