Chicago @ MIAMI
MIAMI +6½ -106 over Chicago

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +6½ -106 BET 365 +6 -110 SportsInteraction +6 -110 5DIMES +6 -110

Posted at 11:00 AM EST.

1:00 PM EST. If you ripped up a ticket on the Dolphins last week, as we did, then you know how cruel this game can be. Miami was playing a near flawless road game in Cincinnati and had the Bengals high flying offense dead to rights after taking a 17-3 lead into the fourth quarter. However, two turnovers that lead to Cincinnati majors were too much for the Fish to overcome as they lost 27-17 in one of the most misleading scores of Week 5. That road loss in Cincy coupled with the Dolphins blowout defeat in New England the week prior has Miami back under the radar, but this is a much better team at home, as they are 2-0 in South Beach this season. The Dolphins were a small pooch to the Titans in Week 1 and won outright 27-20 and they beat Oakland 28-20 as three-point chalk in Week 3. This week, Miami is back to the underdog role at home, which wouldn't be a shock if they were playing the likes of New England, Kansas City or even Pittsburgh, but to spot a price to these Bears indeed says something about both teams' standing in the market.

The Bears are coming off a bye and it could not have come at a worse time, as Chicago had just played its best game of the season in a 48-10 blowout win over the then highly touted Bucs. A 48-10 win always resonates in the market. Remember Baltimore’s 47-3 win over Buffalo? Baltimore lost by 11 points the very next week as a small favorite in Cincinnati. Quarterback Mitch Trubisky put up six touchdown passes against Tampa, which tripled his season total, as he came into Week 4 with just two TDs in the three games prior. While that start to the season sounds bad enough, it's even worse when you consider those other two majors came at home in the same game in Week 2 against Seattle. That means in his two road games this season, Trubisky has zero touchdown passes and now the Bears are road chalk because they whacked TB? It’s one thing for the Bears to be road chalk in Arizona, but quite another here, as the Fish are a far superior team to the Cardinals in every way. The Bears were lucky to escape the desert with the W and at no point were they a threat to cover in that 16-14 narrow victory. Any momentum the Bears may have gained in that big win over the Bucs has surely been lost to time. We are not usually in favor of backing a team coming off a bye because that break totally disrupts everything. The last thing Trubisky and the Bears needed last week was time off. We saw both the Panthers and Redskins come out flat last week after their early season byes and a similar fate for the Bears is not out of the question here. At the end of the day, the wrong team is favored and this one just sets up beautifully for a Miami win.

UPDATE: It appears as though Ryan Tannehill will be limited or he may miss the game entirely, thus the neavy line movement for +3 to +6½. We frequently discuss overreactions to significant injuries and that applies here too. The value on the Fish just went up so fear not.

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Our Pick

MIAMI +6½ -106 (Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)